GT5 still set for "astronomical sales"

By Wesley Yin-Poole Published 13 October, 2010

But could lose momentum if out after NFS.

Sony's high-profile PlayStation 3 exclusive racer Gran Turismo 5 will still enjoy spectacular sales despite suffering a delay, but could lose momentum if it's released after Need for Speed: Hot Pursuit, analysts have said.

This afternoon Sony announced that Polyphony Digital's game would miss its announced 5th November release date and instead be out "before Christmas".

In a statement Sony said "creator Kazunori Yamauchi and the team at Polyphony Digital want to make certain they are creating a racing experience of the highest quality".

Analysts have predicted the delay will have little impact on the game's success – and that of the PS3 this year.

"I don't believe a GT5 delay impacts Sony's current momentum," Capital Research's Jesse Divnich told Eurogamer.

"GT5 is such an anticipated title that delays are unlikely to impact consumer's purchase intent. Whether released a week later or the last week of December, sales will be astronomical."

Wedbush Securities' Michael Pachter suggested two possible outcomes.

"Without knowing the date, it's impossible to say," he said. "If it's a week, no impact. If after Need for Speed, they could lose some momentum."

EA's Criterion-developed racer Need for Speed: Hot Pursuit is due out on PC, PlayStation 3 and Xbox 360 on 19th November.

M2 Research analyst Billy Pidgeon told Eurogamer that Gran Turismo's long development period means this latest delay comes as no surprise.

"Another delay on Gran Turismo is disappointing, especially to the most enthusiastic fans of the franchise," Pidgeon said.

"Still, there have been so many delays that another one is not surprising. Obviously, there's not much time left in the holiday season so Yamauchi and Polyphony have got to go gold within two months."

He added: "I wouldn't revise PS3 uptake estimates on this news as it is still possible GT5 is released in Q4 2010 or Q1 2011 and is likely to spur new and upgrade console sales."

Pidgeon said Gran Turismo 5 is "crucial" to Sony's 3D telly push.

"Sony has set the visuals bar pretty high with Gran Turismo," he offered, "so it is crucial that the graphics (as seen on HDTV and in stereoscopic 3D with camera-based head tracking) impress the critics and the fans.

"Gran Turismo 5's timely release is perhaps even more crucial to Sony's 3D TV division than it is to PS3. In-store demos of GT5 may be the best case Sony can make to consumers for 3D TV."

Sony promised a new release date by the end of the month.

Picture of Wesley.

About Wesley Yin-Poole

Wesley is Eurogamer's news editor. He likes news, interviews, and more news. He also likes Street Fighter more than anyone can get him to shut up about it.

Read more articles from Wesley by visiting the Wesley Yin-Poole archive page.

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Comments (39) Latest comment 2 years ago

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  • uglygamer #1 2 years ago

    Probably a good idea not going head to head against Black Ops

  • Ron_Justice #2 2 years ago

    It's got F all to do with Black Ops.

  • darkmorgado #3 2 years ago

    I have a feeling this whole GT5 saga is going to end in tears for everyone involved - disappointed fans, disappointed critics, disappointed developer...

  • excelexcel #4 2 years ago

    I knew it would be delayed again. As for sales surely some fans enthusiasm for the series would have waned with such a wait?

    as soon as the EU PS3 blog said it'll be out in Europe by xmas, I had a sinking feeling it won't be

  • StevilKnevil #5 2 years ago

    PD do you realise just how much you are pissing off your potential customers?!

    "M2 Research analyst Billy Pidgeon"

    What a fantastic name though :)

  • SteveHolt #6 2 years ago

    What I like about nintendo is that they only do business in video games - Playstation is always trying to sell us Sony's formats (UMD, BR) or new TVs. I wish they were more focused - like they were when they launched the PS1. Mixing GT5 business with 3DTV business = bad idea IMO.

  • CrunchinJelly #7 2 years ago

    Sony's Christmas line-up:

    ...

  • Monkey_Puncher #8 2 years ago

    What are they adding now? Kinect support?

  • V121977 #9 2 years ago

    This is the kind of news that makes you understand why videogames are still the outsider in the the entertainment world.

    No not PD delaying a game a few weeks to ensure a smooth launch, rather the over the top reaction from impatient gamers and the urge to complain and critize.

  • Rajin #10 2 years ago

    Well to be fair, i wouldn't mind another delay at all if it's not just for 3D compatability but for gameplay improvements....

    Edited by Rajin at 13/10/10 @ 18:01

  • excelexcel #11 2 years ago

    Actually yeah if GT5 doesn't make xmas this year what have Sony got for xmas? Socom 4, LBP2 and DC universe are all delayed till next year.

  • PlugMonkey #12 2 years ago

    Yeah, this is a massive break for Need for Speed. Massive.

    Unless it's only delayed by a fortnight, of course, in which case less so. Then it would be a massive kick in the balls.

  • V121977 #13 2 years ago

    Not quite sure why an arcade game like NFS is being compared with GT5.

    You may as well compare GT5 with Black Ops.

  • TrevSkyline #14 2 years ago

    It's like anything you wait YEARS for.

    First, the anticipation of the wait...then its here...wow...this is...good....then a month, two months go by - was it worth the long delay? Will we be all thinking, it was something "special"?

    I honestly don't think it will be worth the years of waiting, I have to admit I am excited about GT5 but unless it's mind blowingly amazing, it really won't be worth it.

    I fear a mass PR stunt on Sony's behalf.

  • michaelangelo #15 2 years ago

    Was it is always the same excuse, "we want it to be just perfect" it looks amazing already! just release it when you promised to and fix anything else with an update, they're just toying with us now.
    Edited by michaelangelo at 13/10/10 @ 20:56

  • Grievous1976 #16 2 years ago

    Should Read 'Gran Turismo 5 delayed Indefinately'

  • JahB #17 2 years ago

    Where is Kevin butler now?

  • DoctorFouad #18 2 years ago

    so i should program a new vacation…it is strange they are delaying it 2 weeks before release, I al pretty sure it is because of bugs and slowdowns, polyphony needed more time to polish the game…

  • captain-future #19 2 years ago

    When I think that Duke Nukem Forever releases just mere weeks after Gran Turismo 5... *LOL*

    Did they say which year?

  • layleeloo #20 2 years ago

    Black ops bum boys - FUCK OFF!

    NFS will have zero impact on GT5. They have totally different audiences. Arcade game v simulator are not in the same league. Just because thy feature cars doesnt mean they can be compared or grouped together.

    If that's the case you could say Earthworm Jim may impact something like MOH because they both feature guns an shooting. Balls!!
    Edited by layleeloo at 13/10/10 @ 19:42

  • Miths #21 2 years ago

    I really can't see delays having much impact on sales either. I think the GT5 release (if it ever actually happens) is a farce, but that certainly doesn't mean I'm going to cancel my pre-order and not run gleefully to my local GameStop as soon as they call me and tell me they have the game. Maybe in 2013 if I we're lucky.

    For a racing game this comprehensive there really is no competition (on the same platform at least, obviously there's Forza on the 360), so just because I may also happen to have bought a handful of other racing games the same year, doesn't mean I'm not all giddy about the the huge and varied car and track collection GT5 promises to deliver. Some day. Perhaps.

  • nasanu #22 2 years ago

    This will not impact sales. Personally I'll buy it now matter when it is released. With the scale of this game in every department they could delay it for years and it will still be easily the best game on the market on release.

    And besides, they can just release a demo a few days before the release of NFS or whatever to remind people to save their money :p
    Edited by nasanu at 13/10/10 @ 21:00

  • Red-Moose #23 2 years ago

    The Gran Turismo brand has lost all of it's momentum and will probably not sell well at all IMHO - except compared to other PS3 regular releases. GT4 and the GT brand and name had huge impact as a "system seller" / killer-app for PS1 and then GT4 especiallit on PS2 but since GT4 (and Forza came out at the same time), we have had Forza 2 and 3, and atonne of other quality racers.

    I think it will do well for PS3 standards but will struggle as it's effectively a new brand in this generation of consoles, and Sony dropped the ball so much that no-one new will give a crap anymore abotu the GT brand, IMHO. What is it? 6 years since the last release?

    FF XIV is another example of too long, too delayed and basically not too good by the time it gets released. I will wait for reviews as GT is no longer a must-have purchase.
    Edited by Red-Moose at 13/10/10 @ 21:41

  • Pedrolot #24 2 years ago

    Ive waited long and hard for this game. GT5 was a big reason i bought my PS3 and i knew one way or another it would either be me or the PS3 that would die before this came out!!


    I need another PS3.

  • Zaiz #25 2 years ago

    These constant delays aren't making me doubt whether the game will be popular(it will) or if it will be any good(it will, if they've actually used the past five years well) but it does make me doubt if the game will actually be profitable. I also doubt it will be a major console shifter for Sony, since most of the PS3 audience has probably already purchased a PS3 after the slim.

    ...but now I'm being a video games sales analyst. Fuck.

  • djcool3005 #26 2 years ago

    Its pretty fucking annoying that they keep delaying it but i gotta say that from that video at the bottom of the article it looks fucking amazing.

  • Wyrm #27 2 years ago

    Will be very interested to know exactly what percentage of these astronomical sales will go on to experience the game in 3D or with head tracking camera stuff. I imagine it won't be quite as astronomical.

  • Numbat #28 2 years ago

    "Sony promised a new release date by the end of the month."

    Sadly, Sony have since announced that there will be an unfortunate delay in anouncing a new release date but expect to anounce a new release date before Christmas - well maybe not this Christmas, but a Christmas.

  • V121977 #29 2 years ago

    Red Moose your missing the point.

    GT5 will sell to car enthusiasts, there isn't a like for like alternative out there.

    GT is now part of the car industry as much, if not more so, than the videogame world.
    Edited by V121977 at 14/10/10 @ 00:57

  • lockload #30 2 years ago

    Moved on a long time ago couldn't be bothered waiting

  • darkmorgado #31 2 years ago

    Red Moose your missing the point.

    GT5 will sell to car enthusiasts, there isn't a like for like alternative out there.

    Actually I think *you* are missing the point. GT5 has been in development for so long that most of the people who are looking forward to it have probably already bought a PS3 in anticipation - after all, it's been in development for longer than the PS3 has been available at retail. On top of that, a "driving simulator" is a very niche audience and, as others have pointed out, since development was announced Turn10 have managed to release all 3 Forza titles. With all of those factors combined, I don't see GT5 being a system seller at all, as most of the people who want it will have already bought the system.

  • UncleLou #32 2 years ago

    On top of that, a "driving simulator" is a very niche audience

    ...

  • PlugMonkey #33 2 years ago

    V121977
    Not quite sure why an arcade game like NFS is being compared with GT5.

    You may as well compare GT5 with Black Ops.

    layleeloo
    NFS will have zero impact on GT5. They have totally different audiences. Arcade game v simulator are not in the same league. Just because thy feature cars doesnt mean they can be compared or grouped together.

    If that's the case you could say Earthworm Jim may impact something like MOH because they both feature guns an shooting. Balls!!

    No, more "you may as well compare something like MOH to something like Arma 2" or "MOH to something like Serious Sam". As in, two different takes on the same genre rather than two different genres, like racing and shooting. Or shooting and platforming.

    My preference between arcade or sim my colour which one I choose, but I'd be very unlikely to buy both as when I get tired of driving cars I'm more likely to fancy playing something completely different rather than something largely the same, but slightly more or less 'serious'.

    When all's said and done, they are both racing games. They don't have totally different audiences. I might be inclined to play either of them. But not both of them back to back. That's bound to have an impact, surely? I don't think the average gamer labels themselves as specifically a 'sim' player or an 'arcade' player.

  • swisstony #34 2 years ago

    if there are people that like arcade and sim racers, and they come out at the same time then they're fine if they've got about 70-80 quid. If they haven't one of the games will suffer. In that respect it could lose momentum.

    And of course if GT5 comes out on a Call of Duty franchise launch day it'll take a hit, for the same reason. There are people that play fps OR racers and there are people that play both. It is naive to think there aren't, but it's hard to estimate the impact for the group that likes both.

  • layleeloo #35 2 years ago

    @Swiss tony.

    I think the fact if it had come out on a cod day is irrelevant. If someone likes both and can only buy one, is that person going to buy the same FPS he has already played 4 or 5 times in the last year alone, or the car sim that has Bern 6 years since the last version? I would say no comparison.

    I play FPS, but I'm so bored shitless of the stale sandy genre that even though I have the money, I wouldn't be giving MOH or cod a glance as I've done it all too many times before - and recently.

    Sure you can compare GT5 and Forza3 (which I just sold. Ooops) but then GT5 is trying to acheive so much more if justifies the interest.

    The downfall could be that we are promised such a high quality game after so long and so many delays that it probably can't live up to anyones expectations now

  • RevanNL #36 2 years ago

    What kind of momentum are these guys talking about? I mean, GT5 will be bought by GT fans (and there are loads of them) and racing enthousiasts (wich I am one of) but it hasn't exactly got a MW2 kind of hype.

  • Snaggletooth #37 2 years ago

    was hankering for GT5 for a loong time. But I have F1 now and that is really fulfilling all my racing needs at the moment and I have a feeling it will for quite some time. I will get GT5 but i'm not craving it anymore... probably just as well with the delay. I also think the longer it is delayed the less I am likely to want it....the PS3 is really starting to show its age now and my GTX480 is frickin awesome....i'm buying more and more for my PC now as consoles just cant match the image quality or smoothness....

  • homerramone #38 2 years ago

    But what does patcher think. Clearly thats the most important thing right now and if he says it will hurt sales then it must.

  • Red-Moose #39 2 years ago

    I *am* a car enthusiast but I really couldn't be bothered. This was a game that should have been out no later than Christmas 2007. In reality, we should now be getting GT6 - much delayed after only 3 years. As a lot of other games show - long development times don't make better games,; IMHO the opposite is true for big titles.

    What is GT now but a game released long after Forza 3? Will I bother? I don't know. I have all other GT games but I will be highly surprised if it doesn't turn out to be GT4 with bells on, the same game essentially, except without Top Gear like Forza has :)

    IMO Sony needed this to come out now because they have SFA else this Christmas (or year, except for HEavy Rain). If it came out in 2008 or 2009, sure, but now.....plz bye mai consowl kthnxbai!
    Edited by Red-Moose at 14/10/10 @ 18:25