Move and Kinect sales "neck and neck"
Sony ships 4.1m Moves, sells probably 2.5m.
Sales of Sony's Move and Microsoft's Kinect were today described as neck and neck as it emerged that Sony's official 4.1 million global sales figure for the Move actually relates to shipping – not sales to gamers.
Yesterday Sony directly countered Microsoft's 2.5 million global Kinect sales announcement with an announcement of its own: it's sold a whopping 4.1 million sales of the Move controller across the globe since its September launch.
However, while Sony's announcement used the word "sales" in relation to the impressive number, it actually meant "shipped". Shipped relates to sales to shops, whereas sales relates to sales through to gamers.
Still, according to analysts Eurogamer spoke to last night, Sony has cause for celebration as the motion sensing battle heats up this Christmas.
"With all that said, the number is still impressive," Wedbush Securities Michael Pachter said.
"I understand that they sold through around one million through the end of October (tracking NPD results and extrapolating for Europe), and it's reasonable that with the Japanese launch they have sold through another 1.5 million in November, but I'd peg the sell through number at closer to 2.5 million, or exactly on par with Kinect, albeit over a longer time frame."
Kinect launched in November – nearly two months after Move. Microsoft has said it expects actual sales of five million before the end of the year.
Pachter added: "If sell-through is the 2.5 million that I estimate, it's logical that shipments would be 4.1 million cumulatively, as demand in December is likely to be higher than the 1.5 million I assumed were sold in November. Yes, impressive, yet likely below the reported figure."
M2 Research senior analyst Billy Pidgeon agreed that the Move sales into retail are "impressive", but insisted comparisons with Kinect are better left until after the dust settles on 2010.
"It will be interesting to examine and compare sell through numbers for Move, Kinect and Wii in conjunction with console sales and relative software through CY 2010," he said.
"Then we will have the data to make a competitive assessment of the three vendors' motion tracking implementations and the effect on software and market share. For instance, will motion control increase console penetration or will most sell into the base? Will Wii sales rise as well due to a stronger focus on motion control?"
For Pachter, though, the numbers are clear: Kinect is in the driving seat in the race for motion control supremacy.
"I think that Microsoft still has an advantage at holiday, with a larger installed base of consoles, more momentum, and a slightly more unique experience," he said, "so I would expect Kinect to outsell Move in December."
Looking to the future, analysts are cautiously optimistic about motion control's success.
"I am not surprised that uptake for motion tracking has been strong overall," Pidgeon said.
"Nintendo's strategy to fully embrace motion control with the Wii (in addition to value pricing enabled by playing against the prevailing tech leader console design) was effective and disruptive.
"Both Sony and Microsoft were initially dismissive of motion control and Wii but are now big believers. Many observers were also dismissive of Wii and remain sceptical about Move and Kinect. They are wrong.
"I believe both will do well and that motion control and other interfaces using intuitive control (gesture, touch, voice) will continue to manifest strong traction into the next generation of consoles as well as in convergent devices such as smart phones, tablets and PC."
Colin Sebastian of Lazard Capital Markets was more cautious, however. "It's [Sony's 4.1 million Move sales] a good number, and the healthy sales of motion controllers are signs of life for the industry, although we're not quite out of the woods yet."
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Comments (78) Latest comment 1 year ago
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Listen, MOVE and Kinect., the sell to on line distributors, from Spain to Germany. Microsoft AND SONY only lknow for sure what they have sold / shipped.
Its impossible for Mr Pacter, MS, or anybody to know if an internet shop in Sweden has 10 Kinects on shelf or has sold 7 of them.
Get real, MS and Sony numbers are shipped, end of story, finished, end.
EG, grow up, stop feeding the trolls, MS are as guilty, they have shipped KINECT but dont know sales, same as SONY. EG only pushed SONY but not MS, a little one sided....?
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Also, i have both products. At the moment, Kinect is better by a country mile........
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Its amazing how many people focus on semantics when it comes to numbers and their favourite games system. Unless you have shares in the company what difference does it make?
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Actually most of them know the sales. They have a system in place were sold consoles are reported (by barcode) to them. This helps them in producing, stocking and also the guarantees. A business doesn't work very well if they don't know the numbers in the hands of consumers.
>If Company A sells Device 1 to Retailer B, does that not mean that Company A has actually sold that Device 1?
Errr... no.
A lot of retailers can return stock for a full refund, especially with stuff like this. In fact some retailers won't even pay for the stuff you put in their store, they will only pay if the item gets sold.
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Seriously, can't we get some coverage of Mass Effect 2 ps3, game of the year nominations, or other GAMES-related things instead of this sales bullshit. None of us reading/writing the article are getting significantly richer with this news.
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There selling the peripherals, more Games and more consoles. Everyones a Winner!
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Surely that is sales to retail, thus shipped.
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Yeah Nintendo and Sony don't do marketing or R&D.
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Why do fanboys care?! They just want an outright win for their preferred platform when consumers themselves are the one dicating and they declare both to be a winner on par to Wii's Waggle!
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No, that isn't what it means. It means sale at retail.
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With Move, you need one unit per player, and its considerably cheaper (though far from cheap...)
So I'd expect sales of Move to be quite a bit higher than Kinect actually, given that anyone who wants to play multiplayer with Move will have to buy at least 2 wand controllers, whilst you only need a single kinect per household...
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Wow... a bit precise are we? German?
I was just indicating that all companies have a lot of extra hidden costs to any product and that we have no way of knowing how much profit they actually make on each sold item. MS has been the only one stating they have a 500m budget for Kinect marketing... the others? No idea. You can pretend it will be 0 if you like that.
I know it feels good to pretend that they (Ms) won't make money... I am sure it will give off a nice warm glow to heat up that cold spot under the bridge.
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Soon we'll have snow shovelling games for kinect and move, for people to play whilst snowed into their homes.
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If the device is sold on a sale or return basis (which I gather is quite usual for things like this, but have no idea what the terms are for either Kinect or Move), then it doesn't really count as if Retailer B can't sell them on then they will be sent back to Company A.
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How many games do you NEED two move controllers for? Only The Fight so far I think? Sports Champion has an option for using one or two controllers. Start the Party, a multiplayer game, only uses 1 controller shared between you. There may be other games that NEED two controllers; none spring to mind just now but they are minimal.
Anyway, just another fanbaiting article by Wesley Yin-Poole.
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As Dizzy said, we have no idea how much Sony or Nintendo are spending on advertisement campaigns. None of these companies have ever mentioned the cost of their R&D for these competing peripherals. It must be an ever ongoing process.
Nintendo has probably gone well over their campaign costs since their launch. I would be interested to know how much money Sony put aside for Move ad campaigns. As a comparison. Since that is what would put these of level ground for this "war".
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At the end of the day, who really cares what the exact number is?
This 2.5m number was pulled out of someone's ass, just to please MS shareholders and fanboys. "Oh, don't worry, they just managed to come close to the Kinect's success!"
All I know is that the shovelware (and of the worst kind at that) that plagued the Wii's library is now going to infect both the XBox360 and the PS3.
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Most retailers, especially online, would not get sale or return or indeed credit rating with Blue chip suppliers like MS and SONY.
Infact, one could argue only supermarkets fall into that safe catergory, people like blockbuster, most indies, maybe even game would not get credit, Even major high street retailers run into trouble (Woolwoirths?).
So no, Move and Kinect will sell probably 75 % payment on delivery to most retailers without the VAT which is paid when sold on to consumers. Yes, a month or 2 after the tratailer may buy more or even report sales numbers back to Sony and MS.
No, the bar code will not be given back to Sony or MS, if the retailer bought it and does not have large credit terms and special stock agreements, then no.
So, what we have is Sony shipping 4.1 million, Kinect Shipping 2.5 million, BOTH paid for almost 75 % by retailers both online and in street who do not have a Grade AAA credit rating / blue chip. So it is sales to the supplier.
What is the stock estimate and inventory status at retailers, the news is both MS and SONY ESTIMATE a percentage of the shipped sold on to end users, and some word play to grap poor headlines.
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That suggests it's selling very well.
By contrast, I've seen plenty of reports that Kinects are far from selling out in UK highstreet retailers.
This is purely anecdotal, and means nothing in the long run - but it's just what 'Ive heard' and may be different to waht youv'e heard
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XX could be 2.6 million
XX could be 10 million
Depends how cynical you are...
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So, taking the headstart into account, overpriced lag-fest doesn't work Kinect is hammering awesomesauce Move.
Told you so.
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Joke post?
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Going forward to the prognoses of 5 million sales by X-mass that would still be $100 per unit. Even if they manage to get 20 million units sold by X-mass 2011 it still means that they've spend $50 per unit on marketing alone! Remember, this is 'just' the launch budget so it's likely other budgets will be added to the marketing-monster that Kinect has turned into.
As for the PS-Move, the (known) budget exceeds the $100 million mark and is heavily focussed on the US, since (we) Europeans buy their hardware anyway. I'm well aware that the profit MS make on each sold unit is far more than Sony does on Move-units but I think it will take a while until MS start making a profit from Kinect sales. Guess the sales of games will make the difference/profit in the end, as always.
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Do you think Play or retailers based in Jersey or Spain get free stock, they buy it. Do you think they give sales numbers to MS LOL....
They probably not even big enough to buy from SONY or MS direct, there probably are middle distributors for different regions...
How to MS know how many consumers bough Kinect from PLAY or whoever unless they all connect it via LIVE when they get home...
Repeat, MS and SONY have estimates of sell through, rest is to keep headlines infront of you, the consumer, so you might buy one this XMAS.....
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Yes, must neg my non partisan post. How dare I be the voice of reason.
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We have 360 and PS3, but only bought sports champions / MOVE for table tennis, which is superb. You can aim and smash that ball anywhere on the table using feel and skill.
Everything else tried with MOVE demos are pants, dont get us started on Kinect....even my son says Kinect is for kids and had enough of the Wii games that play themselves, and he is 7 (badgering me for AC brotherhood on 360 little darling).
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I bought mine on day one. Camera + two move controllers and Sports Champion for £80. Three people I know since then have struggled to get one due to stock. One is still waiting.
Some places probably have them in stock but quite a few are (or have been) out of stock. This is just coming from me though.
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Yeah looking around seems they're both out of stock on the main game websites, must just be my local gamestation and game that have them (Sheffield). But proves my point, anecdotal evidence means nothing on a national level.
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No more than my observation.
For the record, I dont own either, I own a Wii, and that's all I intend to own for the time being.
If I buy one, it'll probably be Kinect - simply because I can see it being more fun for my son than Move.
I wont buy Move until there are more decent games for it - but at the moment, that's not the case - but many other people are tempted becase the price of entry is cheap or they already have the PS Eye.
Also simply put, the difference in marketing budget alone between the two is astronomical - it would be insane for the Kinect to sell fewer, or to have less mindshare.
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Soon we'll have snow shovelling games for kinect and move, for people to play whilst snowed into their homes. "
If i got achievements/trophies for snow shoveling i would do it.
No i wouldnt (yes i would).
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Agreed. I was considering shovelling the snow away for my entire block yesterday. Considering was as far as I got. Achievements/Trophies may have been the incentive I needed.
Edit: A shovel may have helped too.
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Agreed. The thing is, Kinect is seen as more of a 'Must Have' amongst certain demographics (Parents with kids under 15, people who like party games, people who want the latest tech, people who want something different to the Wii experience). - the big question is wether the Kinect and Move can sustain their sales post launch/holiday.
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It. Would. Be. Awesome.
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Some exercise is better than none, no? By all (I think all) accounts I've read, Kinect is far more exhausting the Move or Wii. If Kinect gets overweight people off their butts and moving about, that can only be a good thing.
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[link url=http://www.computerandvideogames.com/article.php?id=278594
]http://www.computerandvideogames.com/art...[/link]
Kinect Sex game....
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Current top 3-Gran Turismo, COD:BO and AC. Come back in from the windowledge
http://www.eurogamer.net/articles/2010-1...
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Sure they may well be neck to neck but only because move had a 2 month start
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Also if we are doing races, surely we could say that Nintendo using their now old controller tech is trumping both (looking at the recent console sales).
Also i am pretty sure Sony didnt or wont spend $500 dollars on marketing theirs and have to sell a hell of a lot less to make a profit.
depends on how you do your PR for your particular console i guess. Me i just hope everything does well enough, considering how bad the general market is at the moment with countries needing baleouts.
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Here's my favourite quote:
"It [Kinect] isn't quite so good at picking up minutiae about those bodies"
In other words, even if the player's living room is well endowed with floor space, they still might not be able to play the game...
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"Sure they may well be neck to neck but only because move had a 2 month start"
Funny how people forget that the 360 had a year's headstart when they crow that the install base for the 360 is larger and has more Dev support.
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"man.the.king, I think the point there is that after enjoying almost complete dominance with the PS2, for Sony to be playing a close 2nd fiddle to the 360 is nothing short of devestating for them."
Devastating for whom? As far as the gamers are concerned, they've never had it so good with Sony bending over backwards to enhance PS3-owners' gaming experiences. And unless someone is a stakeholder or a fanboy, there is NO legitimate reason to congratulate oneself over one's chosen platform doing better than the other.
"M$ always edges it (best racing game, best shooter, best control scheme) "
That bit there is COMPLETELY SUBJECTIVE.
From MY perspective, the best driving/racing sim (GT5), the most hardcore shooter (Killzone 2), the shooter that gives you the best approximation of being part of a unit (MAG), the best adventure games (Uncharted series, Infamous), some of the best platformers (Ratchet & Clank, Sly collection, some of the best platformers involving user-generated content (LBP), the best mature gaming experience (Heavy Rain), and a host of other incredible gaming experiences (e.g. Last Guardian) - ALL of these are or will be on the PS3.
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Really? Do those same reviews also say that the most accurate driving/racing sim is not GT5?
Some of the reasons given to rate GT5 lower is lack of damage modeling, which may be wrong, if the Youtube videos and Internet claims showing more accurate damage and AI at higher difficulties are anything to go by. So if those reviews are grading a game while overlooking such obvious criteria, WHY should I trust them? In fact, the only accurate claim to rate GT5 slightly lower, IMO, would be the issues with online.
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(I speak a pc gamer, I have no console at the minute)
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I'd say we've sold probably twice as many Kinects as Move, we literally just run out of Kinects today but have been told to expect a shit load more by Friday.
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"man.the.king, you're right, let's just forget about review scores..."
Fine by me
I don't have any problem with agreeing to disagree - after all, my preferences need not be the same as yours, and vice versa.
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I believe you are missing the point that you have no clue as to how this ad budget will be spent and what it will take for MS to make up the difference. It's not like it will be spent in one pop since that will be silly. Instead, this budget could be extend over a year or more. Also I believe a lot of you are missing the point that spending money to make money is what business do. Are you telling me all those TV Ads for the Move on prime time shows mean Sony isn't spending money to advertise its device.
Last but not least, who cares if MS is making money on Kinect. If you bought Kinect, you want MS to spend money to advertise the device. It gives developers confidence that MS consider Kinect an important piece of technology to warrant investment in developing games for Kinect. Developers are probably not caring one bit if MS is making money on Kinect right now, instead they are looking at how quickly the device is selling to their install base and thinking we can make money off of Kinect games. Kinect has been on the market for 4 weeks and has sold through to consumers 2.5 mill. It probably will sell 5 million by Years end which is exactly what MS want and developers who want to develop Kinect games.
Only fanboys care about who is spending the most money to promote their device. Business wise you can believe a developer only care about how many devices their games can reach so they can make a profit. Hooray for MS for putting their money where their mouth is because soon I will have Kinect and I want MS to sell a lot so I can see more games developed for the device and it does collect dust like my PS3eye did before I bought my 2 Move controllers.
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Actually Patcher commented on this point and stated that MS and Sony are keeping the bundles flowing while keeping very tight the standalone units. Just because something is hard to get doesn't mean it's sell great, just could mean shippments are very tight.
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I think you will find out that its also the people who own shares in the companies. I know what you are saying, and agree with some of it, but if you dont get high sales after what MS has done, then really you are in deep doodoo. They have spent a hell of alot so far, regardless of how much it is out of the $500, its still alot.
You might also think that its only to do with high base numbers, but what if MS sell alot, but its not enough to make a profit, this would surely put at risk further investment, which is a risk to those who might develop a game for it... no?
So i think there is more to consider than just numbers.
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You forget that MS is a growth company and do not pay dividends to investors. MS spending money to grow their business is more important to their portfolio then them making more money especially on a new product. This has always been MS MO so I doubt anyone who is investing in MS stock doesn't understand.
Another thing people have to realize is that the 500mill ad budget doesn't have to be paid in a set amount of time. In other words, MS can spread that around to each quarter. 100mill first quarter, maybe 50 the next, 200 the following. Then we have to look at how MS is paying for that amount. MS could borrow the amount and spread the cost over 5 years. You might ask why would they do this, because it doesn't hit the books in one lump sum. Business do this all the time especially if they are profitable. There is even more complexity to the whole thing I could go over but I believe you get the ideal. Corporate financing isn't so straight and defined as most are believing. MS spending 1 billion dollars to promote their devices isn't so cut and dried and you probably will not see that whole amount hit the books because they will borrow the amount and spread the cost over years.