Microsoft raises Kinect sales projections

By Fred Dutton Published 3 November, 2010

You'll buy five million by Christmas.

Microsoft has revised its sales targets for the Kinect system from three million by Christmas to a whopping five million.

TechFlash report that Bloomberg's Dina Bass broke the news on her Twitter feed. A further tweet added, "That would make Kinect the biggest Xbox product launch ever in terms of sales, according to Microsoft's Don Mattrick."

Genuine numbers or is the platform holder just rattling a sabre in Sony's face? Time will tell, but demand does seem to be very high for Microsoft's space-age controller.

Bass also tweeted that Sony was projecting a similar figure for Move, but noted that its motion controller has been on sale a month longer.

You can check out Kinect for yourself from 10th November. If you can find one.

Picture of Fred.

About Fred Dutton

Fred Dutton is Eurogamer's US news editor, based in Washington DC.

Read more articles from Fred by visiting the Fred Dutton archive page.

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Comments (73) Latest comment 2 years ago

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  • Eraysor #1 2 years ago

    Luke Skywalker: "No. No. That's not true. THAT'S IMPOSSIBLE!"
    Edited by Eraysor at 03/11/10 @ 17:25

  • drumbaby #2 2 years ago

    I think they should project even higher, it's alot more exciting.

  • lcmnick #3 2 years ago

    Post deleted at 12:48:44 14-04-2012

  • RandolphScott #4 2 years ago

    I assure you I won't.

  • djhsecondnature #5 2 years ago

    So much for "sold-out" everywhere. There's no way they would increase their predictions this much if they didn't have the stock to match it. Obvious now that they were indeed limiting stock to retailers.

  • thewool #6 2 years ago

    lol - GTFOOHWTSMS

  • 1Dgaf #7 2 years ago

    The people on here are mainly experienced gamers and informed consumers; we're not the target audience.

  • Nephirion #8 2 years ago

    Maybe Microsoft should aim to kinect with reality and drop the price

  • TopKatt #9 2 years ago

    Amazing what Oprah and Ellen can do for you isn't it?

  • andywilkie35 #10 2 years ago

    Fuck me I want this badly, I'd buy a million of them myself just to make sure there's a followup

    Nah only joking it looks shit kthxbai

  • darleysam #11 2 years ago

    Just to slap it in the face of everyone who's had a downer on this from the start, I would absolutely love for this to happen.

  • sfp_noodle #12 2 years ago

    Ok, whatever you say MS. We'll see you again on January 1st 2011. Maybe with a price drop to reflect a more realistic kinection to reality.

  • rotmm #13 2 years ago

    @djhsecondnature,

    Nope, you try to build your supply to your demand, and stores and online retailers were given stock allocations based on (a) what MS expected the higher-end of demand to be and (b) what MS throught their manufacturing and distribution capability for launch day is.

    The allocation for my local Game store, in the provincial town of Northampton, was originally 70+ and then a few weeks later "well into the triple figures". That's what MS could guaranree on launch day, and that's what pre-orders are based on. From launch until Xmas there are a lot more days to get stock in and sold, but if they are now looking at 5m by year end, then they're going to have to ramp production.

    Increased predictions means increased production, but that they originally had 5m Kinect units sitting in a secret warehouse.

  • Rajin #14 2 years ago

    If 1 million buy a digital-mount for 20 euro's(out of 12 million accounts) I can actually see them selling at least 3 million:p

  • I\'mListening #15 2 years ago

    4 million will be available in the pre-owned section by the new year

  • Peter_LIAR_Molyneux #16 2 years ago

    Microsoft might also set records for returns early next year when clueless, middle-aged women take Kinect back to stores when it doesn't work as (misleadingly) advertised.

  • woodnotes #17 2 years ago

    They seem to have forgotten about marketing it here in the UK.

    Amazon US top 20 is full of Kinect stuff. Amazon UK top 20 has not one Kinect related item.

  • Psychotext #18 2 years ago

    "Maybe with a price drop to reflect a more realistic kinection to reality. "

    They'll drop the price next year anyway. They're simply taking advantage of manufactured hype to sell all they can make for launch at a stupid price right now. Risky, sometimes it works (iPad), sometimes it doesn't (PS3).

  • djhsecondnature #19 2 years ago

    @rotmm

    I highly doubt they've magically been able to increase production in the past weeks to fill that many more units, where they were unable to before. It's widely known that limiting supply for a highly publicised consumer product like Kinect will drive sales, so it was hardly surprising.

  • CaptainQuint #20 2 years ago

    No...Must fight the hype... FORCE-TO-STRONG

  • Britesparc Verified Creative, ITV #21 2 years ago

    @woodnotes

    Probably coz it's actually out in the US now, and doesn't come out here for a week?

    I agree though that marketing's been much, much quieter than I thought. I imagine that it'll kick up closer to Christmas however.

  • Loghorn #22 2 years ago

    Guess what, MS? People like myself don't care about this beefed up Eyetoy webcam! Why not give us core games outside that crappy device, huh?

  • SG79 #23 2 years ago

    They'll probably aim to ship 5 million, but sell through? Probably not in just two months... less in fact.

    People need to keep in mind that Kinect's marketing budget matches the one for the launch of the original Xbox. That's not to be taken lightly, so expect the strong push and optimistic forecasts to continue.

    Whether they'll achieve their targets is another matter.

  • epiazk #24 2 years ago

    Why is everyone so down on it already? I am a total sucker for the minority reportness of it! Granted the games look tacky as sin at the moment but meh, if microsoft can make something to replace the damn control pad (useless for strategy and cumbersome in fps) then best of luck to em, we need more ways to interact. I hope that developers surprise us with kinect, not make crap tech demos.

    Also, its worth noting that the sales of this may be great despite our expectations, Ill be the first to say I didnt see the wii coming.

    Think of this, Black and White using kinect. Tell me your not in the slightest interested :p

  • man.the.king #25 2 years ago

    Oh, what the hell, as long as we are picking numbers, let me revise the sales forecast further.

    They will sell 7 million, sorry 10 million, sorry 11...a zillion, gazillion, bazillion, umptillion
    Edited by man.the.king at 03/11/10 @ 18:16

  • lockload #26 2 years ago

    Will 10% of xbox owners buy one? good chance i would say so thats 4 million

  • Retroid #27 2 years ago

    I can only shake my head.

    Definitely something I'll be on the outside looking in on.

  • Toothball #28 2 years ago

    Well, my own sales expectations of Kinect have increased to one in the last week or so. The desire to make a fool of myself with Dance Central have been increasing with the release of Rock Band. Should be funny if nothing else.

  • Vin #29 2 years ago

    Come on, it's shit and you lot know it.

    Maybe in a few years when the tech finds its feet.

  • StooMonster #30 2 years ago

    It may be laggy with rubbish games, but my kids are stoked for it ... and they only normally play Wii or Flash games (aren't bothered by HD consoles or installed games on PC/Mac).

  • makeamazing #31 2 years ago

    They are paying people to line up outside shops, days in advance, to give the illusion of demand.

    Where is the evidence for that? I mean surely these gaming news sites would "out" that kind of thing?

    I am a total sucker for the minority reportness of it!

    If by minority report style you mean holding your hand in the air in one place for a number of seconds so that it can find it, and then slowly moving across the screen, then great.... but thats not my definition of minority report style controls.... i guess we have different levels for that :D

    With regards to 5 Million, i am not sure if thats more part of the hype machine or they really think they can do it. I have no doubt when you spend that kind of money on ad's etc you would expect some good returns... dunno, i really think this Xmas is going to be really interesting from a technology/sales point of view.
    Edited by makeamazing at 03/11/10 @ 18:48

  • captainrentboy #32 2 years ago

    As someone who has, shock horror, played with Kinect for a good few hours or so, I too am confident that they're going to get some facking fantastic initial sales.
    I've said it before on here, Kinect has amounted the most preorders my workplace has taken for anything, EVER. That includes all console/software launches and any peripheral released by Nintendo or Sony before now. And not just a few more either, it's doubled the preorders of things like DSIs (When they were new) and GTA4.
    I believe Microsoft are going to have a rediculously good first few months with this thing, the test of course is whether the sales will stay relatively high throughout the next year or so.
    Folks who think this is going to flop next week, just because they and their equally non-fussed mates aren't keen, are in for a shock.
    Of course if it is a big ole floppy disaster, I'll come back on here next week and admit I was way off :)

  • Geordiemp #33 2 years ago

    Look everyone, millions of people bought my little pony....

    As a gamer, I have no personal interest, neither does my 7 yr son who thinks it looks rubbish...

    However, we are not teen girls who want dance central...

  • makeamazing #34 2 years ago

    Its not going to flop within a week, anyone who thinks that is a muppet. I think it will sell very well over Xmas, but it should begin to drop steadily over the early months of next year. Unless it goes on a wii like sales march, but i think the economy is much worse now than it was when the wii first released. I think people will also get bored of it after a week or two.

    I really enjoyed the Move, but after about one or two weeks, i was like Meh... and some of those games you could play sitting down (the range of move games will improve), this is compounded even more by 99% of the games involve jumping around at the moment.

    I think it will be massive in the USA initially, and pretty good in UK, but i think USA is where it will hold up best, while europe will drop alot faster.

  • Tiiti #35 2 years ago

    How many did Wii Fit sell?

    How much was that again during its crazy time with low stock for months and months and months?

    How much were the bundles for Fit and the Wii? £300 ish?
    Edited by Tiiti at 03/11/10 @ 19:23

  • SavageEvil #36 2 years ago

    Kinect is no Wii and it's coming in after the Wii has already made it's mark. Holiday sales will surely be high, but in the months following will tell the true tale. I see this catering to casuals who have children as most (single)adults do not have the living space for this add on. Also I checked in the news, they are making it harder to return things at stores this coming season. Ahh fit's in nicely with MS plans, stores now don't have to just take returns anymore, they will grill you as to why you are bringing it back. MS already made their money and the stores will try to keep their money the made off you.

    Hope to see some good games, but seriously not interested in this unless I get Minority Report style interface, that just looked awesome...this sure as hell does not.

  • makeamazing #37 2 years ago

    Some interesting videos i have just seen on Youtube of one queue, a person goes along the line asking them what games they are interested in.... they struggle to name one game, and when one says "I am interested in racing games" the guy basically tells them Joyride. Another guy waffles on about how he cant wait for it to track his eyes as he walks into the room and the character watching him (I guess like that kungfu pretend trailer). The only girl they found did actually say Dancing game (must be Dance Central)

    This was only a small sample of people, but still very interesting, and i wonder how many of those people in the queue are these ebayer type people. Strange that people would be queuing to buy a product without actually knowing what they hell it is they are looking to get. Guess all launches are like this :D

  • ZuluHero #38 2 years ago

    People DO realise that Kinect isn't aimed at the likes of us, right? Its kinda funny to read comments akin to; "im a hardcore gamer, i certainly won't be buying this rubbish!!" well that's ok, you have your console and you still have the games that you want to play.

    But there is a HUGE market out there that Microsoft realize that if tapped will bring in loads of money. People, who up until now only have had a handful of games on a console dominated by games that aren't suitable to them, nor appeal.

    You only have to look at the adverts of the thing to see the groups of people this is aimed at. And its not US!

    Persoanlly I hope the thing is nothing short of a huge success, why on earth would i not? If this thing flops, do people really think thats not going to have a negative effect on our side of the console?

    And at the very least i'm certainly not jaded enough to not want even more people in the world to enjoy the 360.
    Edited by ZuluHero at 03/11/10 @ 19:45

  • makeamazing #39 2 years ago

    Zuluhero, be careful for what you wish for :D... if it sells really well, I think people are worried that it will become a wii2. A machine that suddenly has lots of shovelware games on... with the only small number of hardcore games. I can understand that fear (though i have an xbox, i am not interested in Kinect, but i see why some might be)....

    I think people might also be concerned that MS are spending ALOT of money on this, and if it fails it could do untold damage to the future console.


  • Mr_Brown #40 2 years ago

    I really do hope it fails. I doubt it would do lasting damage financially to Microsoft, but hopefully it would convince Microsoft that motion controls are not the future.

  • immateriaux #41 2 years ago

    @epiazk
    "Think of this, Black and White using kinect. Tell me your not in the slightest interested :p "

    Watching my animal eat the villagers while I jump up and down on the floorboards, ignoring the knocks coming from the apartment underneath, waving my arms up and down giving myself hernias in places I didn't even know had muscles, shouting "STOP EATING THE FUCKING VILLAGERS YOU PRICK"....

    No.
    No, I'll definitely pass on that one.

  • DoctorFraud #42 2 years ago

    I can see it moving 5 mil easy.

    When it does, devs will be falling over themselves to implement it in games both core and casual.

    The future is looking very good for MS, and even better for gamers.

  • SHPanda #43 2 years ago

    Just incase people are unaware these aren't projections based on talk in the pub or surveys etc.

    I know from first hand experience that they have reps going to each and every store selling it, asking for number of deposits, so the majority of that figure is correct but of course give or take a few for cancellations and anomalous results etc. Add on a few for the extra stock they've managed to produce and I'd say they'd easily hit the 3m, maybe 5m is pushing it a little, but 3-4m is a done deal, the rest is just hoping freesale Kinects sell.

  • makeamazing #44 2 years ago

    @DoctorFraud, pre Wii i would have said yes definately, post wii, hmmm not so sure. Game companies may be a little more cautious.

    Of course the earlier the game release for the platform the better off you will be.... but as time goes on, the goldrush comes to a shuddering stop. I think if you have a game that can easily be converted for little cost and quickly, then it will be a great idea. Would someone develop an expensive AAA game for Kinect only... only MS i suspect (thats not necessarily a negative).

    Only problem with stuff said above is that if you are looking to break into the market quickly before the gold rush is over, then most games (like some of the early move titles) will be shovelware only. I personally dont see games companies making games only for move either (except Sony) and i think there may be more wii converted games coming at some point.

  • Brev2034 #45 2 years ago

    I like how everyone is bashing Kinect from what they have seen people said when the film minority report came out how cool would it be to be able to do what Tom cruise does with the computer he is using but now Microsoft have made this a reality it's shot try playing it first then give your opinions after I'm a ps3 owner and I got move on lauched day and I would rather have something like Kinect than move, move is just shit it's a wii mote with a glowing tennis ball on the top and from what I've seen the more adult games that are due for Kinect next year look amazing I for one hope Kinect succeeds because a bit of compertition is good for everyone and also the price for Kinect is a good one move costs about the same but no-one is complaining about that

  • Dr.Frappers #46 2 years ago

    I, like a lot of people on here I guess have been watching the progress of Natal / Kinect over the months, but am not going to even consider the notion of buying it until i know exactly what it's all about.

    With that I mean by at first seeing some proper hardware reviews.
    Does anyone know when the hardware reviews will be out? - seeing as it's released state-side tomnmorow (4th) - i think....

  • makeamazing #47 2 years ago

    Dr Frappers, there was one video i saw that did a first day play, not really a review, but still some info. It was a site called Games Radar. I think there should be more coming now that its released in the USA... not sure if there is still an embargo in the uk though.

  • man.the.king #48 2 years ago

    @Brev2034

    "I like how everyone is bashing Kinect from what they have seen people said when the film minority report came out how cool would it be to be able to do what Tom cruise does with the computer he is using but now Microsoft have made this a reality it's shot try playing it first then give your opinions after I'm a ps3 owner and I got move on lauched day and I would rather have something like Kinect than move, move is just shit it's a wii mote with a glowing tennis ball on the top and from what I've seen the more adult games that are due for Kinect next year look amazing I for one hope Kinect succeeds because a bit of compertition is good for everyone and also the price for Kinect is a good one move costs about the same but no-one is complaining about that "

    Aha! Move shit..PS3 shit..mumble-mumble..360 great..Kinect superb...blah blah
    Edited by man.the.king at 03/11/10 @ 21:34

  • kaya08 #49 2 years ago

    It'll sell brilliantly for a good while, any non gaming tech show has been raving about it for weeks (who knows why it looks rubbish - I suspect they're clueless and / or naive enough to believe MS's bullshit).
    Edited by kaya08 at 03/11/10 @ 22:03

  • JBlokeUK #50 2 years ago

    ''You'll buy five million by Christmas.''

    Fuck that, I can't even afford one, let alone five million!

  • evilrobot #51 2 years ago

    Post deleted at 22:12:53 08-05-2012

  • Furfoot #52 2 years ago

    Kinect is the reason to get a 360.

  • ronuds #53 2 years ago

    These estimates are to look good to stock holders - not for a bunch of fanboys to quabble over. There's always a chance they won't meet their goals, but they're not going to want to look bad, so I'd imagine they paid people a lot of money to come up with these numbers.

    But, yeah, I'll rather take the word of some anonymous dude scratching his arse behind a computer screen.

  • DRE4DNOUGHT #54 2 years ago

    i was exited about connect until i watched the videos on inside xbox. 4x4ft space, only able to navigate some menus in the dashboard, no baggy clothes, no sitting down, the thing sounds terrible!

  • Negotiator #55 2 years ago

    The price is not an issue, sales will go through the roof, well done Microsoft.

  • _LarZen_ #56 2 years ago

    Dunno what bubbles people live in but if they think todays gamers wil put down their controllers after playing some Fable 3 or Halo Reach to move every furniture in the room to stand there running on the spot or waving their arms around like crazy I think its gonna hurt realy realy bad when the bubbles around starts popping......

    I just cant belive all the hype Kinect is getting for something so.....simple.

  • ZuluHero #57 2 years ago

    "...but if they think todays gamers wil put down their controllers after playing some Fable 3 or Halo Reach to move every furniture in the room to stand there running on the spot or waving their arms around like crazy..."

    That's the point - they don't. What they want is Mrs Zuluhero to play after I've put down Fable 3 or Halo Reach.

    See?

  • Stoatboy #58 2 years ago

    Aw! Can we keep Brev2034 as a pet? Can we?

    He's adorably upbeat and enthusiastic. I 'll put some cheese in his cage and clean him out from time to time, I promise.

    And I'll try to keep him away from the grown-ups, so the fact that he's a BLITHERING FUCKING IDIOT doesn't become too apparent.

    Go on, can we keep him? (assuming he's house-trained, which may be a long-shot, truth be told).

  • CalmBlueOcean #59 2 years ago

    "Those who've never played it seem to be the main haters. funny that. reminds me of the wii launch."

    I have played on Kinect.... prior to experience with it I was excited and intrigued... unfortunately half an hour with the laggy, glitchy, unresponsive sack of shit that is Kinect made me want to weep. It barely works at all, is confused by damn near everything. At one point we put a pot plant in front of it and watched it label said plant as player 2?!

    Kinect reminds me of the Wii as well with one crucial difference. The Wii doesn't HAVE to do motion control, you have d-pad and buttons as and when you need them, so even if the waggle-trash winds you up, you can still make proper games for it as well... Kinect doesn't have that luxury, its far MORE casual than the Wii.

  • MizzouGaming #60 2 years ago

    Wow, just wow. Went by my local Best Buy early this morning and there were already a bunch of tents up. I had a feeling this would do alright in the States, but I never expected it to be this big. Im fixing to pick up Kinect Sports in a coupld of hours and I will be good to go since Ive had my sensor for almost 2 months now. People are going to be shocked by how well this device works. Its definately no eye toy, I will leave it at that.

  • niteninja #61 2 years ago

    Got to play it today its a complete bitch to get the configuration set up.
    Went through the set up it lost track of me twice because of what it called incorrect lighting.
    Third time lucky then my right leg started to spaz out on screen followed by a kinect has a tracking error please use set up wizard again message.
    Feel sorry for you guys who work in retail your phones are going to be ringing like mad post launch with people having issues good luck.

  • mazzl #62 2 years ago

    Kinect is for the casual gamer... i'ts not yet for us.
    so it will do great for that audiance. i hope it is a great success so the technology will be imporved and will actually become "minority report" stuff.

  • SHPanda #63 2 years ago

    I love how anyone with a comment saying they believe sales will be as good as Microsoft say has a negative number by there name!

    There's some seriously bitter people around who want this to fail because (more than likely) they own a Playstation 3. Fanboys, eh?

  • irve77 #64 2 years ago

    5 million .. good thing they released it at a price that would make them a profit then !

    you know i'm still sold on the idea of kinect .. but i'm not sold on kinect ... i look forward to the next version that will support hands ...

    till then i'm waiting for the £70 bundle

  • mdeeRocks #65 2 years ago

    It will sell. I've been in beta since March and have two of them at home (one is going to be on sale soon, unpacked). MS made a great progress since beginning of the beta and all launch games are great, feel responsive and are fun.
    It's nothing like Wii and Move. It's totally different experience.

    My gamer tag is the same as my user name here, I've got beta achievement and beta avatar t-shirt if you want to check for credibility :)

  • Sunyavadin #66 2 years ago

    If I was them, I'd be estimating 1m. That way when sales hit double, or even if they're lucky triple that, you can claim it massively outperformed expectations....
    Edited by Sunyavadin at 04/11/10 @ 10:29

  • Sunyavadin #67 2 years ago

    I love how anyone with a comment saying they believe sales will be as good as Microsoft say has a negative number by there name!

    There's some seriously bitter people around who want this to fail because (more than likely) they own a Playstation 3. Fanboys, eh?

    I'm an XBox fanboy, and I approve of negging this comment.

  • DefendoCroc #68 2 years ago

    5 million is a pretty good haul for the annual 'tard harvest'.

  • Darren #69 2 years ago

    I think the Kinect hardware is intriguing if only for navigating the dashboard Minority Report-style but, sadly, none of the current launch games interest me. Nor do I have the space to use it even if I wanted to anyway as my Xbox 360 is in a small bedroom that is already full the brim with other stuff.

    If the add-on was half the price and the games more appealing then I might possibly have bought it though just out of sheer curiosity. £130 is just too expensive though for something I might seldom use.

  • Sabreman64 #70 2 years ago

    trebell: Those who've never played it seem to be the main haters. funny that. reminds me of the wii launch.

    A lot of the people who hate (or at least dislike) the Wii have played on one and even bought one (me, for example). Funny that.

    I wonder how many people who will buy Kinect will buy one without realising that they need to buy a 360 in order to use it. It would really make me laugh if there were a lot of people who did that.

    As for how many units Kinect will sell - I'm betting that Kinect ownership will never get above a quarter of the total 360 userbase. I believe the Kinectless 360 owners will always be in the majority.
    Edited by Sabreman64 at 04/11/10 @ 14:08

  • StolenGlory #71 2 years ago

    @brev

    Try to make your enthusiasm for Kinect a little less gushing, lest the trolling massive neg you into oblivion.

  • StolenGlory #72 2 years ago

    "It seems there's 5 million idiots in the world. Well, according to Microsoft(core)."

    Well, sixty million more have bought the Wii, so a mere five million seems quite achieveable.

  • Sunyavadin #73 2 years ago

    People DO realise that Kinect isn't aimed at the likes of us, right?

    No, it's aimed at people who already bought a Wii for less than the Kinect controller costs!