Analysts back MS's 3m Kinect sales claim

By Wesley Yin-Poole Published 20 September, 2010

But it's a "high price" for gamers.

Microsoft reckons upcoming motion-sensing add-on Kinect will sell over three million units this Christmas, destroy iPad sales and perhaps even be the biggest platform launch of all time.

But will it? Eurogamer chatted to three top analysts to get their verdict on Microsoft's bold and brash Kinect sales claim - and they all agreed.

"Microsoft hasn't been shy about their aggressiveness with the Kinect, something I can respect," Jesse Divnich, vice president of Analyst Services, told Eurogamer.

"Microsoft hasn't had the most successful launches in the technology sector over the last few years. Bing and Zune continue to struggle, and the Kin, Microsoft's giant step into the mobile market, is now officially discontinued.

"I believe Microsoft is just simply communicating to us all that the Kinect will not be another Bing, or Zune, or worse, Kin.

"Three million units is certainly aggressive, and it is rare to see any organization toss out unit estimates well before launch, but I believe it just speaks to the high confidence level within Microsoft.

"With Microsoft's plan to aggressively market the Kinect this holiday season, hitting three million units is possible."

Outspoken Wedbush Securities analyst Michael Pachter agreed.

"It seems reasonable to me," he said. "They're going to likely sell close to three million Xbox 360s in November and December, and the Kinect bundles are pretty attractively priced, both for entry level (with the Arcade model for $300) and for replacement (with the 250Gb model for $400).

"My guess is that they will sell around half of consoles with the bundle, so they need another 1.5 million standalone units to hit their goal."

Pachter, however, reckons the £130 Kinect will be a "high price" for hardcore gamers.

"I'm not as optimistic as you that this is a conservative figure. The standalone units mean that existing 360 owners are willing to pay $150 for something that they aren't convinced they need.

"I think that's a high price for a 'nice to have' peripheral, and although I see the potential of Kinect over time, I'm not sure that most gamers will see that as a necessary option, particularly if they just bought Halo Reach, Fable, Medal of Honor, Vanquish and Call of Duty."

Colin Sebastian, from Lazard Capital Markets, also backed Microsoft.

"This sounds like a reasonable expectation for sell-through, and is consistent with our estimates," he said.

Microsoft expects Kinect, due out on 10th November in the UK, to breathe five more years into the Xbox 360's life.

15 launch games are planned, along with a huge marketing push and a redesigned Xbox 360 interface.

Picture of Wesley.

About Wesley Yin-Poole

Wesley is Eurogamer's news editor. He likes news, interviews, and more news. He also likes Street Fighter more than anyone can get him to shut up about it.

Read more articles from Wesley by visiting the Wesley Yin-Poole archive page.

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Comments (55) Latest comment 2 years ago

Comments for this article are now closed, but please feel free to continue chatting on the forum!

  • mingster #1 2 years ago

    Hmm i'm not feeling the Kinect love.
    Are they saying 3m units worldwide between 12th November and 26th Dec?
    possible i suppose.
    I don't think they realise the 360 user base isn't really the casual gaming market they are trying to attract.

  • Shikasama #2 2 years ago

    Cue many comments from people who obviously know more about the games industry than Microsoft and the industry analysts.

  • FogHeart #3 2 years ago

    Is the Microsoft estimate of 3m units inclusive of the bundled console sales or just the device itself? Pachter says all together is a reasonable estimate, the others aren't specific. MS haven't said, which allows them to claim success either way!

  • des #4 2 years ago

    Armchair analysts ahoy...

    Another EG fanboy baiting article btw...

  • coolbritannia #5 2 years ago

    I've been saying for months that Kinect will dominate this xmas. The EG population do not represent the majority of gamers.

  • nuanimal #6 2 years ago

    I still can't believe its not butter either.

  • Rev.StuartCampbell #7 2 years ago

    What the hell's it got to do with the iPad?

  • JohnnyWashnGo #8 2 years ago

    I would be very surprised if it got anywhere near to that figure. Just sounds like Microsoft and the analcysts are trying to create some kind of self fulfilling prophecy.

  • StooMonster #9 2 years ago

    As I've said before ... to me £130 is worth the kids jumping around the tele and stopping the in-laws monopolising the living room over the Xmas holidays in a vegetative state, staring at the gogglebox all day long. It worked in first year of Wii, it worked so well we've had dancing and singing games every Xmas since, "We have to go to another room ... it's the beeping and the noise we don't like." Woot KTB!

    Even though it might only get used one day per year, I would pay more and I am sure that I am not alone. :)
    Edited by StooMonster at 20/09/10 @ 16:22

  • Dolly #10 2 years ago

    @designerheadache

    "They might make their 3m units, its certainly possible. I have seen people on several occasions pre-ordering kinect in GAME and Gamestation recently, while i have been slamming my head in to the nearest wall and shouting "WHY!!!!" at the top of my voice."

    Couldn't agree more. You just have to accept that your average casual will see it for two minutes on a video at Argos and think "It's like Minority Report. It must be as good as the video shows me. DO WANT!" without any further research.

    With absolute sincerity, I just wish it was half the product that those initial videos promised :(
    Edited by Dolly at 20/09/10 @ 16:27

  • Spydy #11 2 years ago

    They can sell 20 million this Xmas, but with no software attachment, it's dead. There's also a reason why their hardware releases have been so abysmal....their hardware is atrocious. Plain and simple.

  • RexRunti #12 2 years ago

    I have seen people on several occasions pre-ordering kinect in GAME and Gamestation recently, while i have been slamming my head in to the nearest wall and shouting "WHY!!!!" at the top of my voice.

    Dance Central.

  • towser #13 2 years ago

    There's a reason they are called analysts - it's because they talk out of their arses.

  • jaxon58 #14 2 years ago

    They need to sign-up Ant & Dec to do the advertising.

  • ViralNinja #15 2 years ago

    Well i'm no journalist but i'm quite sure that "they all agree" is slightly inaccurate as Pachter clearly doesn't agree

  • Uncle_Fishboy #16 2 years ago

    Jesus. I know it's pretty pricey but it kind of tingles my gibbly bits, and I'm a hardcore gamer. You naysayers are such downers. Dance central looks great and I have kids who I'm sure will love kinectimals and all that. I'm looking forward to it.

  • himmelsturmerIX #17 2 years ago

    Well friggin chuchu pets hamster was a big hit last christmas.. So anything is possible I guess..
    Edited by himmelsturmerIX at 20/09/10 @ 16:47

  • tachometer #18 2 years ago

    I'd probably pay $150 but no way £130!!

  • Bremenacht #19 2 years ago

    PACHTER FOR THE WIN

    /stands bravely in front of karma-nazi firing squad
    /refuses blind-fold


    ed. I'm still alive?! Stop toying with me, you bastards, shoot!
    Edited by Bremenacht at 20/09/10 @ 20:20

  • Buenos_Estente #20 2 years ago

    Im waiting to see how it works in real peoples living rooms and what other games are on t'horizon.. was excited at first announcement but everything since has made me wary!

  • Vyggo #21 2 years ago

    "Couldn't agree more. You just have to accept that your average casual will see it for two minutes on a video at Argos and think "It's like Minority Report. It must be as good as the video shows me. DO WANT!" without any further research. "

    Or maybe, just maybe people think it provides enough entertainment for their family to spend $150 on it. I know it's crazy that people have other priorities than the hardcore eurogamer, but try and open your horizons a little.

  • StooMonster #22 2 years ago

    Aye, one of my kids wants Dance Central and the other Kinectimals.

    The other titles look dodgy though, but there might some merit in Kinect Sports.

  • jonsaan #23 2 years ago

    I think the great unwashed are likely to be incredibly wary after the wii to be honest. Most wii owners I know who are (cringe) casual gamers, went mental for wiisports then promptly forgot about their wiis. They are likely to remain sceptical this time round I think. MS are chasing a ship that has already sailed.
    Edited by jonsaan at 20/09/10 @ 17:05

  • schnide #24 2 years ago

    Journalists re-quote over paid mouthpieces' claims on 3m Kinect sales

    Fixed.

  • epiazk #25 2 years ago

    I JUST registered to say that ill be buying. Reason being, I think its a fairly cool gadget, it reminds me of minority report, and I have neither an xbox 360 or PS3. PC gamer :)

  • Skooch #26 2 years ago

    It's going to sell well.

    I understand many people's cynicism but Dance Central looks fantastic and Adventures looks cool too. No controller at all is a magical experience for kids and 'casual' gamers and also for some of the hardcore. I don't have kids, but I have a missus, and anything to get her to play Xbox is worth it. I am also looking forward to it too. Many of those too quick to judge on this site forget that they represent a tiny proportion of the gaming community, and not everyone cares about a little lag or whatever, they just want games to be fun....and Kinect looks great fun to me!

  • riceNpea #27 2 years ago

    anyone who pays that kind of money for unproven tech at launch is a nutter. i very much doubt any game being sold with it is going to be so good that i just have to have Kinect. a year down the line after the inevitable price cut and better games, maybe.

  • PlugMonkey #28 2 years ago

    jonsaan
    I think the great unwashed are likely to be incredibly wary after the wii to be honest. Most wii owners I know who are (cringe) casual gamers, went mental for wiisports then promptly forgot about their wiis.

    My experience is exactly the opposite. All the gaming enthusiasts I know have got bored of the Wii. All the casual gamers I know are still having MarioKart parties.

  • epiazk #29 2 years ago

    @earl

    Heh, was gonna get the Xbox bundle, can imagine a kinect on its own would seem like silly money, but as I have nothing the bundle doesn't look so unreasonable.

  • supermaniacs #30 2 years ago

    you can count me out of the three million..

  • jonse1977 #31 2 years ago

    I think £130 is a bit steep. I could well sell as much as they plan though, after all didn't Wii Fit sell like hot cakes and that was £80-£90 for some plastic weighing scale that was only really used for the 1 game it came with. Compared to that thing Kinect does far more and looks like a steal.

  • drumbaby #32 2 years ago

    There's bound to be a large enough percentage of the 40 odd million Xbox 360 owners, who buy shiny toys for the sake of it, who will go ape for Kinect. It stands to reason. Whether Kinect has much appeal beyond this initial wave of sales to hopeless gadget hounds is another matter.

  • Vyggo #33 2 years ago

    £130 is steep, $150 however is not. I think it will do very well in the US and here in Canada.

  • Grayvern #34 2 years ago

    I can see around 1 in 13 xbox 360 owners buying Kinect. Especially those with families or those who bought and xbox because they were in the advertising demoraphic.

    It's not the short term picture that matters most though. It needs to sell enogh to be viable and we wont know that for another 6 months.

    Although I do doubt that half those sales will be with new consoles.

  • Dizzy #35 2 years ago

    >particularly if they just bought Halo Reach, Fable, Medal of Honor, Vanquish and Call of Duty

    Vanquish? Seriously?

  • Negotiator #36 2 years ago

    It will sell that amount with ease.

  • General_Zod #37 2 years ago

    "Cue many comments from people who obviously know more about the games industry than Microsoft and the industry analysts."

    bwhahahahaahahahahahahahahhahahahahahahahahahahahaha yes having watched some of these "industry analysts" make some of their predictions over the years I can sure take their word for it. When I say prediction I mean essentially that, from some of the things they have said about the games industry they must have got Mystic Meg after she was chucked off doing the lottery.

  • JayKwon #38 2 years ago

    @Dizzy, well I hope Vanquish sells a lot, it would be good for the gaming industry when a new IP sells well amongst all those proven licenses. I'll do my best as well to convince my friends of the cool title Vanquish is, although probably it's a bit to obscure to be accepted by everyone. At least I'm buying Vanquish, and I think for the rest of the year it will be the only title I'll buy. Maybe Enslaved, but that's it. I want more new games.

  • StooMonster #39 2 years ago

    jonsaan: I think the great unwashed are likely to be incredibly wary after the wii

    I (indirectly) know some "great unwashed" -- complete casuals in gaming, choice of clothes (they wear sports clothes even when not doing sporting activities no less!), and general lifestyles (teenage parents) -- and they were talking about 'Project Natal' in revered terms last Christmas. Yep, last December they had already planned to buy it this Xmas.

  • Dizzy #40 2 years ago

    "@ Dizzy, well I hope Vanquish sells a lot, it would be good for the gaming industry when a new IP sells well amongst all those proven licenses"

    Yes I understand.... and it looks like a good game, but nobody can seriously mention it in that list of Halo, Fable and CoD? It might sell a million, not 4+ like the others.

  • romelpotter #41 2 years ago


    "Microsoft hasn't had the most successful launches in the technology sector over the last few years. Bing and Zune continue to struggle, and the Kin, Microsoft's giant step into the mobile market, is now officially discontinued.

    As Analysts, what is it that they see that suggests that anything other than the above trend will continue?

    Perhaps the pricing structure?

    Perhaps its the fact that all of the games are going to be graphically, less capable than 360 games (by proxy of the Kinnect functionality taking up some of the CPU processes )

    Perhaps is it the fact that actually this technology is dated by at least two years?

    This does indeed beg the question as to how objectionably are they looking at the launch?

    Personally I think they will SELL (not manufacture or ship) 1 to 1.5 million units (including bundles) 6 months after release. Thats if they keep their pricing structure. If they look at the sales figures and decide to drop the price to sub £100 then maybe next side of Christmas, they MAY show 3mil sales.

    But that doe$nt take a well paid Analyst to work that one out!

  • epiazk #42 2 years ago

    @Stoomonster

    That's nothing, I know a one legged prostitute that has a terminal illness, and she was planning to buy "project natal" with the last of her meagre savings from the moment it was announced.

  • dirk_aircool #43 2 years ago

    5 more years of current xbox. they jest.

  • StooMonster #44 2 years ago

    @epiazk: from the sounds of it they might related!

    But honestly, I think the airchair analysts here might underestimate how aware the casual market is of Kinect; also how likely they are to buy it. A third of Wii owners bought balance boards, I think Microsoft might sell a reasonable few Kinect.

  • BonzoBanana #45 2 years ago

    The technology looks brilliant long term but Microsoft quoting 3 million from the outset is a bit worrying. So if it only gets to 2 million in the new year its a failure? The uk pricing is a bit crap. If its $150 stateside it should be £99 over here. Wouldn't surprise me if it flops in europe but does well in the usa.

    Still I never understood the appeal of the wii and thought it was doomed to failure but it seems there is a large percentage who will buy the latest gadget whether they actually have a use for it or not.

    For me it seems sensible to play the waiting game until its cheaper and there is more software available.

  • Dolly #46 2 years ago

    @Vyggo

    "Or maybe, just maybe people think it provides enough entertainment for their family to spend $150 on it. I know it's crazy that people have other priorities than the hardcore eurogamer, but try and open your horizons a little."

    I like that you didn't try to justify the £130 UK price, but instead picked the not-too-bad US price to make your informed point. Brilliant :)

  • Loghorn #47 2 years ago

    @designerheadache, if that's true, then don't worry. People will realize how much it's trash once they play it, either due to being bored with it from 24 to 48 hours, or the fact that this product has a number of problems such as lagging.

    @towser: Totally agree with you. Microsoft, the Analysts, as well as all of the Kinect defenders that wants this crud to succeed are getting very cocky about this product, but they will have a rude awakening once either Nintendo lowers the price of the Wii down to $150 stateside (where I'm from) & bundles it with a core game, or brings out the 3DS this November or December, or both.

    If the 3DS does happen this year, then what are they going to think that most people want? A system with a peripheral (or just a peripheral for those that already own a 360), or a brand new gaming handheld? I would definitely choose the latter, even though I own a 360.

  • niteninja #48 2 years ago

    This guy is a professor of sensor technology at the university of tokyo, he had kinect style tech in 2002 and he has told microsoft in meetings that a 60 hzs camera in kinect is far to slow for capturing body movements accurately.

    [link url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NJAymNhChQ&feature=player_embedded
    ]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=-NJAymNhC...[/link]

    very intresting.

  • FuzzyDuck #49 2 years ago

    Have i missed something along the way, but how is Kinect going to be a "platform" launch, exactly?

    Is it not classed as an interface device?

  • Vyggo #50 2 years ago

    @Dolly

    This article is about 3 million sold worldwide, not only the UK. What is your point?


  • 3william56 #51 2 years ago

    So... sell a million, have then fail twice each, 3 million sold, job's a good 'un.
    Does it have a red ring on it? ;)

    Strange announcement in my opinion - opens up the forums to ONLY 2.5 MILL SOLD! EPIC FAIL! screaming.

  • Odessa #52 2 years ago

    People will go shopping with their kids in november and december. Then they will see in the store Kinect. So guess what they wanna have for christmas?? And of course in school one says he will get it. The other kid goes home and tells his parents that he also wanna have.

    So i guess 3 millions is not that bad goal.

    $150 = is without taxes if you still do not know. Guess also with taxes still cheaper then here but not that much anymore.

    @all those "its to expensive" complainers: Dont buy it if you cant afford it. I cant afford a porsche but do i go in forums and write that its to expensive for what u get??? And that i cant do stuff like with other cars?

  • irve77 #53 2 years ago

    ok so i'll add my own prediction

    £130 = 3 million sales

    then come easter it'll be £99 to catch the it's too expensive crowd

    then come next christmas it'll be £79

  • Machiavellian #54 2 years ago

    Cue many comments from people who obviously know more about the games industry than Microsoft and the industry analysts.

    Thought this comment was neged to death, it's actually on point. I can speculate all I want on how Kinect will perform but like the Wii, I find that I have no clue how the market accepts such devices. Most on this site is all knee jerk reactions instead of any practical experience with Kinect or the games. The thing I do know is that MS is probably hard tracking interest and preorder for Kinect. MS also understand how marketing can propel a device. 3 million is probably the conservative number from MS.

  • Machiavellian #55 2 years ago

    I think the killer app for Kinect will be the commercials MS will hit the world with for the launch of Kinect and during the holidays. I have a few friends who are going to buy Kinect because it looks cool. They do not go to game sites, read game mags or even visit game forums. What they do is watch TV or listen to word of mouth.

    Those family commercials will sell Kinect to millions because it will have that Wii family vibe. Kinectanimals will sell Kinect to parents with young kids (like myself). Dance Central will definitely sell Kinect to teenagers especially the girl market which can be huge. Kinect Adventures will get the boys who like physical type games (my son likes the look of adventure). I say that MS has covered their bases for the launch of Kinect as far as launch games go. Yes the quality of those games can be hit or miss but that's not going to make a difference for the launch. After the launch who knows.