Ubi: Transition to next-gen in 2-3 years

By Wesley Yin-Poole Published 8 July, 2010

Still life in current gen.

Ubisoft reckons we'll see Microsoft, Sony and Nintendo "transition" from the current generation of consoles to the next in two to three years.

"I was reasonably optimistic and still remain so in terms of how the industry will perform this Christmas," Murray Pannel, head of marketing for the UK, said.

"There's absolutely some amazing product coming. The new hardware, if it's not new platforms coming, the things like Move, Kinect, 3DS, these will all reinvigorate the market, and I do see in the next 12 month if not growth then stabilisation before what I assume to be a new transition into new consoles probably in the next two to three years."

As the three home consoles near their fifth year of life some are asking: what's next?

But now is not the right time for the first parties to start talking about their next consoles, the Assassin's Creed and Splinter Cell publisher told Eurogamer.

"When you can see what Microsoft can deliver in terms of Kinect, a brand new gaming experience without the need for new hardware, just a peripheral effectively, it does change the game," Pannel said.

"When you consider that the Nintendo Wii is still selling the volumes it is, month in, month out, there's still an opportunity there with a current hardware to grow the audiences and grow people's experiences on those platforms.

"It's difficult to say what's coming next, because we're not with Sony or Nintendo or Microsoft. But there's still life in all those machines. I genuinely think games can get better. Experiences can get more rich and varied, and the new platforms, Kinect and Move, can help enhance that, certainly."

Analysts have banged on about the need for Nintendo to release the Wii HD for a couple of years, now. But so far the Japanese console manufacturer has been keen to talk up the continued success of the Wii, which currently sits pretty on 70.93 million units sold to date.

Of course, Sony's trumpeted the PS3's planned 10-year lifecycle. And Microsoft hopes motion sensing add-on Kinect will extend the life of the Xbox 360 by five years.

"It would be nice [for the first parties to start talking about new hardware]," Pannel said. "I don’t think it's a requirement right here, right now, because there's enough new tech coming to the market. Maybe it's deemed irrelevant for the hardcore gamer, things like Kinect and Move. I disagree with that to some extent. There's more stuff to come that showcases what Kinect can really mean for the hardcore gamer. I would love to see new technology coming. I'm a tech guy and I'm a gamer. But I think in the broader mainstream audience, it's probably not necessary until there's more to show on that stuff."

Picture of Wesley.

About Wesley Yin-Poole

Wesley is Eurogamer's news editor. He likes news, interviews, and more news. He also likes Street Fighter more than anyone can get him to shut up about it.

Read more articles from Wesley by visiting the Wesley Yin-Poole archive page.

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Comments (38) Latest comment 2 years ago

Comments threads automatically close after 30 days, but please feel free to continue chatting on the forum!

  • Distributor #1 2 years ago

    seeing as "good" games are in development now for what, 3-5years. Developers must have some indication of whats coming next, performance wise anyway?

  • sfp_noodle #2 2 years ago

    I expect new consoles to be debuted at next years E3 with a view to launch in Christmas 2012 or early 2013. Nintendo will probably announce a new home console later than Sony and MS considering how well the Wii is still doing.

  • cianchristopher #3 2 years ago

    Will you implement your "always online" requirement on those consoles, Ubisoft?

  • Buztafen #4 2 years ago

    Surely they're still recovering from the losses they made on the current gen for various reasons. I think 2-3 years optimistic.

  • Luckyjim #5 2 years ago

    I wish console cycles would last a little longer than 5 or so years. There's far too much emphasis placed on technology than craft.

  • Raznilof #6 2 years ago

    With games like Rage and Crysis looking as good as they do and running as fast as they do on 5 year old hardware, I am for one happy that I no longer need to buy new hardware every single year just keep up with screenshots.

    The day I stopped worrying about the mouse and learned to love the controller, is a day I have never since regretted.

  • teabagger #7 2 years ago

    @ Distributor. You don't really know until you get a devKit, you might get one up to a year before launch if you're lucky and even that won't represent final hardware.

    I'd be surprised if there are any official announcements for new hardware within the next two years.
    Edited by 2 at 08/07/10 @ 16:11

  • dingo75 #8 2 years ago

    If you continue the path you are walking right now Ubi you don't need to worry about the next-gen of consoles because you will be bankrupt by then.
    Not a big loss I may add.

  • peterfll #9 2 years ago

    I'm drawn on this. I'm really enjoying my 360/PS3/Wii combo and love seeing these games that technically really push the hardware. So many breathtaking titles ....

    Then the hardware slag in me comes out and I just want a NEW toy to play with NOW.

  • MaFlippinHeadHurts #10 2 years ago

    I can’t imagine Sony being too keen on developing an expensive new piece of hardware so soon. At least Microsoft have had more time to rake in some cash

  • Luckyjim #11 2 years ago

    @ Astro-Creature

    Probably PSP2, though. This article's really about home consoles.

  • brseg #12 2 years ago

    Sounds about right. In 2-3 years PCs will be far ahead in processing power, time to upgrade the consoles.
    Wont happen in less than 2 I dont think, theres still life in the 360/PS3, and Kinect/Move arent even here yet.

    Dont think theres much appetite amongst consumers to be spending on new consoles either. Could be a chance for the handhelds to sell nicely though...

    More 'subscription' based services in next gen, I bet, gotta kill that 2nd hand market...
    And, will 3d be established or dead by then?
    Edited by 1 at 08/07/10 @ 16:25

  • menage #13 2 years ago

    I really don't need a new gen at this point, I'm perfectly happy with the stuff which is coming out now. New shit will probably only add more pixels.

  • Farzlepot #14 2 years ago

    Only just got a PS3. Don't want to have to fork out for a PS4 so quickly!

  • FortysixterUK #15 2 years ago

    Whilst I appreciate at some point there must be a new hardware generation.
    We don't need it but the marketing boys at Sony and MS will tell us we do.
    I would quite happily wait for another 5-7 years to see it happen. The PS2 only really got into its stride a few years in, and now Xbox/Ps3 is very much at its peak of quality titles hitting regularly. Long may that last.

    So where can next gen ( after Ps3/Xbox) actually go ?

    I think 3d is a dead end fad. Full stop. Come back in 2 years to see where it's at in gaming.It won't be in 3D.

    A download only market will fail, people still want physical " product"

    Unless TVs can start displaying at Higher Definition than current ones,then what will a next gen console aim for?
    We already have excellent Visuals and Fidelity.

    Hard Drives are simply getting bigger. No issues with current gen there, as they can simply release bigger drives or people can adopt the use of more that one.

    I think we are at a plateau with games consoles. Lets face it, PCs have barely moved for the last 3 -4 years. Get 2-4 Gb of Ram, A terrabyte HD and a decent Graphics Card, and there's no longer any need to upgrade the PC, only to replace it on it's inevitable break down.

    So where do next gen consoles go? The only thing I can suggest for next gen that will have any real impact and/ or relevance would be the introduction of much bigger HDs and a memory upgrade of some kind. But that's really pushing the "wants list" out there.

    In reality, Sony and MS would have you believe motion sensing is the next big thing. Well, it quite simply isn't. Ninty have that all sown up along with the casual market. Sony and MS should be thinking about going truly hardcore gaming platform, and by that I mean increases in HD space, Memory and reliability along with continuing strong growth in their respective games libraries.

    And I think the games industy was a more exciting place when you had a console with loads of permanent exclusives.

    THAT'S where the future of gaming should be. Exclusives.

  • RobotRocker #16 2 years ago

    Three years? Pffffffffffffft.

    If were heading to Double Dip Recession like the anylsts are predicting, were all heading to this gen going to 2018 at least. Companies are already spending £10 million on middle tier games and they sure as hell don't want all triple-A titles swelling to the £70-100 million Rockstar spunked on GTA4 and Red Dead Redemption.

    Not even Apple could pull off a console at this point unless it was part of some uber multimedia box and if anything, they will bring specs down.

    The "Next Gen" wont be shown at E3 till 2015. Bank on it.

  • Timbercottage #17 2 years ago

    "Microsoft hopes motion sensing add-on Kinect will extend the life of the Xbox 360 by five years."

    Come again?

  • Acrid #18 2 years ago

    No, no, no, haven't you heard? There's a 10 year plan.

  • TRUTH #19 2 years ago

    At least 10+ years a console should last, what's the point of buying something new then having upgrade it as it's already on it's way out!!!!...If consoles start to get a shorter life span, I will simply stop buying. Technology will also never be pushed, as time will and cost will stop the consoles being a major leap and only evolve in small steps.

  • Stuz359 #20 2 years ago

    I think it will be nice, in FIVE years time to get the new consoles. To actually be able to see a decent leap rather than an incremental one.

  • sentinal101 #21 2 years ago

    i think 3 years its very likely we will see the next Gen consoles. my moneys on MS being the first, also think kinect is going to be a success. My wish list for next Gen would be VR (however unlikely) but If they can get kinect right then they are half way there already.

  • Miths #22 2 years ago

    So many people always seem to talk about "not wanting to buy a new console so soon", but how long does hardware typically last anyway?
    I know from what I've read and heard that I've perhaps had a worse run of luck than the average person with PCs and other electronic devices over the last decade or two, but with daily use, I generally don't expect a PC or a game console to last longer than around two years tops before I it has at least one vital component break down.

    Most of the PCs I've owned have lasted 12-24 months. My first PS3 (a 40 GB model) lasted 20 months before it YLOD'ed, sending me out to buy a replacement (the Slim had fortunately just been released mere days earlier), and my 360 died around 24 months after I bought it (though with how preciously little I had been using it since mid 2008, it really only had an effective lifetime of perhaps 6-8 months).

  • crickson #23 2 years ago

    I have seen the future* and it is thus:

    New consoles announced at e3 2012, to be available in 2013.
    End of physical media, optical drive add-ons available only as part of optional bc kit
    3D TV support, but still only in a small proportion of homes
    Wii2 launches with Super Mario Universe, requires player to wear skin-tight motion sensing suit in a range of neon colours

    *I might not have seen the future, it migt be I just want to waste a few more minutes before returning to work.

  • geordiek #24 2 years ago

    I'd be happy with another 5 years of this gen, more so with the PS3, as it's really begining to come in to it's own and dev's starting to tap in to it's full potential.

  • makeamazing #25 2 years ago

    I think another 3 to 4 years is a fair estimation... I think with the economy in the state it is in, neither HW manufacturers or developers will be wanting to sink deep into their pockets just yet. If the economy gets worse than it is, then expect it to be longer (and who knows what the economy is going to do just yet).

    I would say that for me, ignoring some games, I still think there is alot of life left in this gen of consoles, i mean we are still seeing games that we think look amazing..so that is a good sign.

  • paulf #26 2 years ago

    'then what will a next gen console aim for? '

    silent running and less/no loading screens would be nice to start with

  • MeBrains #27 2 years ago

    god no! don't give us new consoles in 2 to 3 years. Make it at least 5. there's plenty of mileage left in this gen!

  • Bleemo #28 2 years ago

    "When you can see what Microsoft can deliver in terms of Kinect, a brand new gaming experience without the need for new hardware, just a peripheral effectively, it does change the game,"

    Idiot, the type of people that would be interested in the Kinect games don't own an Xbox 360 therefore it is not cheap at all as they have to buy the console and the peripheral then games.

    I actually think that the game industry might have a mini crash to be honest, games are looking samey and tired now let alone in three years. We're onto our third Gears of War and 2nd super mario galaxy in one gen. We'll probably see a third Uncharted too, tis madness I say. Software sales are down, which may well be because of the summer, but my gut says people are bored of the current tech, hell there is almost no buzz about the new Zelda. The 3DS may save Nintendo from having to launch a new console until 2012 however.

  • mooseman721 #29 2 years ago

    yep, no need for next, next gen just yet. lots of folks not caught up with the hd gen so far!

  • holloguts #30 2 years ago

    "I'll be playing on my bleeding edge £2,000 PC. !

    Yea... ported games from the consoles... lol


    Edited by 1 at 09/07/10 @ 01:47

  • FenderMaster #31 2 years ago

    the PS3 has only just become profitable, so... i'd imagine Sony aren't so keen to push out anotherloss making powerhouse at half a grand launch price.

    If anyone is going to push for new hardware, a new genertion, it'll be Nintendo... maybe MS

    If they were sensible they'd wait for more stable economic recovery first, launching an expensive, loss making piece of next gen tech in todays world might not be the most sensible thing

  • milohighclub #32 2 years ago

    i think i have to say i think your all mad....i have only just got my ps3 and i've had a 360 for 3 years or so and personally i would die for a next gen console!!!!! why not???? who wouldnt want photo realistic game's???? better physics??? bigger games??? with more things to do through out, personally i feel that this gens graphics are dated now and have been bored of them for a while now, that was my reason for getting a ps3 because i wanted better games and graphics, but i've done all the best graphic games now i know theirs more to come like crysis 2 n uncharted 3 n so on but i would much rather play em on a new console, roll on 2-3 years please no later!!! kinect and move are shit, good ideas but tbh i would much prefer a pad in my hand!!!! i read on here somewhere that someone thinks 3D isn't gonna take off in gaming. YOUR WRONG mate!!!! you obviously haven't tried it!!!! everyone said HD was crap and wasn't worth the money, now everyone bums it and for a very good reason, its awesome!!! and so is 3D and as soon as the tv's drop in price everyone will have them!!! peace

    also before any one says the graphic update wasnt available yet, sony wouldn't release a console unless it had at least the same effect on you as the upgrade from ps2, so if they were to release one it would have guaranteed.

    and i seem to recall microsoft and sony saying you'd be able to buy new motherboards and graphic cards for this console.....well i'm still waiting....
    Edited by 1 at 09/07/10 @ 09:34

  • Dr.Mott #33 2 years ago

    I think that it would be nice to have all games run in 1080p at 60fps. You know, like this gen could supposedly do.

  • geeza2020 #34 2 years ago

    I think it would be nice if everyone stuffed their 60fps Anti Aliasing, 3200X2400 resolutions bullshit up their arses, and actually tried putting in a bit of good old fashioned IDEA'S and innovation into their games. Oh no, all we'll get is COD 157, Halo 126, FIFA15 and assorted other crap. For all the hardcore communities talk of the Wii being woefully inadequate in comparison to the HD consoles, the best game i have played this gen on any console (and i have a 360 and a Wii, used to have a ps3) is Super Mario Galaxy 2. More ideas in one bloody level than the whole of fucking Infinity Ward could muster for the whole of MW2. My point is that this clamouring for a next gen is just for graphics whores who have no idea about how a really addictive and pleasurable game is made.

    /rant

  • Amblin #35 2 years ago

    Next gen? What happened to cloud gaming? Rofl, industry is in flux so no new consoles for the next 5 years is a smart move. It'll take 1-2 years to manufacure and design a new one so here's hoping they aren't in pre-production as there's too much happening. I cannot see MS et al, jumping into new consoles (costs are ridiculous) unless there's a cert it will be a hit. Sony lost it's arse on the PS3. Wii was the smartest move in the console market.

    I think 5 years is closer to the mark. Anything less will result in a crap product that doesn't re-invent only interates the exisiting designs. Oh, and don't forget the cloud hanging over all of us...

    And games, what happened to good games? New ideas? Consoles killed the indy star (to an extent). PC's still are the home of innovative games (nintendo is the exception as the wii mote was genius).

    Oh and I forgot UBI will be dead/bought out thanks to there uber DRM system and naff sales....
    Edited by 3 at 09/07/10 @ 12:18

  • Bleemo #36 2 years ago

    @Amblin

    5 years are you mad? there's no way that the Wii can last more than 2 years tops. Hell the Xbox 360 is going to look a little redundant compared to PC in several years time. To be honest the PS2 was an upgrade to the PSone all in all as was the Xbox 360 to the Xbox. So that logic makes no sense at all.

  • TRUTH #37 2 years ago

    PC is expensive and unreasonable to play games. Consoles can never match the continuation of PC upgrades every year..BUT! a console can manage games that look and feel good enough, and not be killed off as soon as something is better comes along. If this was the case every tv, phone, console, blu ray player, sound system, watch, car etc etc...is already out dated and needs to be updated so it looks or performs better then previous 3yrs ago last model.

    All console purchase will be a waste of time as they start to push the console, a new one comes along, previous one is forgotten about and all production goes to the new console for the next 3yrs - before the next one comes along - What's the use of buying a product if it's dead in a few years ?
    Edited by 1 at 09/07/10 @ 18:03

  • evilrobot #38 2 years ago

    I believe the line between consoles and PCs is getting very faint. A multi-media platform device will be offered next, think about it every thing on sale now is trying to be or turn itself into something else; a sensor, a dvd rental shop etc. Xbox naturally being Microsoft is a Desktop console, it will be a machine that can do everything, Games, internet, motion sensors, 3D. They simply are not "consoles" in the old term sense but think what that box in the corner of your living can do already compared to 15 years ago.

    I await full 3D helmet or at least visor peripherals with full instant control over my gaming character, from fingertip to blade of grass. We want immersive gaming! combine the sound of turtle beaches with 3D Visors (no need for a complete 3D TV) and show us the true ability of sensor gaming by reading our movements in this world.