Carmack speaks out on hardware issues

By Robert Purchese Published 1 August, 2008

Gazes into crystal ball.

Speaking at QuakeCon, id Software's John Carmack has suggested that the competitive nature of home consoles will shorten the lifecycle of the current generation of machines.

While Sony has always maintained that the PlayStation 3 will go on the market for ten years, and Microsoft wants the Xbox 360 to last longer than the four year's of its predecessor, Carmack believes that first mover advantage will tempt manufacturers to push out hardware sooner rather than later.

"What happens with all of these vendors on the next generation - the timing of all this - is going to be interesting. We know a little bit more now than we did a year ago, but not a huge amount," he said.

"I know internally how many steps away the 3D hardware vendors are from where they think they'll be pitching consoles. And honestly it would be great if this generation of consoles lasted twice as long as the last one, if we had a viable eight-year commercial lifespan for this generation of titles, and I know some people are saying this is the plan - I don't think it's going to turn out that way.

"I think it's going to be far too tempting to one-up your competitor because they don't think you're doing this but you really are to get it out earlier and try and get some first-mover advantage. So I don't think it's going to be too long."

id Software is currently working on Rage for Xbox 360 and PlayStation 3 as well as PC, and Carmack hopes he can get it finished to take advantage of the current generation of machines before new hardware appears on the horizon.

"I hope it's long enough that we're able to have a new project come out at a nice sweet spot for this generation and not when everybody knows what's coming next Christmas," he said.

However, Carmack doesn't believe that an enforced format change will drive consumers back to the PC to make it the dominant platform.

"I think there are inherent challenges for the PC platform that consoles don't have that I would be surprised to see that desktop PC box making Sony and 360 and Wiis and everything obsolete. I don't think that's going to happen," he concluded.

Read our keynote roundup for more from Carmack.

Picture of Robert.

About Robert Purchese

Bertie is Eurogamer's Senior Staff Writer. When he's not hunting down news stories he's often found playing with his kids or gabbling about fantasy games and strange online worlds.

Read more articles from Robert by visiting the Robert Purchese archive page.

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Comments (18) Latest comment 4 years ago

Comments threads automatically close after 30 days, but please feel free to continue chatting on the forum!

  • kestral #1 4 years ago

    I'm of the view that if they'd come out with a new console generation too soon then they'll find that people will just stick to the current generation, similar to HDDVD/Blu-ray. Graphics are good enough for many people, work on the online presence will be spread over current and previous consoles, and the installed base won't be high enough - also haven't development studios and middle ware invested many hundreds of millions to reuse and cut development costs for current hardware? More money would need to be invested again for a new generation. There's no successor to HD tv, that was a sellingpoint for current generation consoles.If you had to change your TV every 4 years you would stop buying nextgen tvs as well.

    So despite this why does Carmack think different?

    Actually this made me think and it would be fantastic if there was more "column" like articles from Eurogamer staff on gaming and issues like this, written for the actual gamer instead of the game industry (.biz). Would be good to read.
    Edited by 2 at 01/08/08 @ 11:07

  • rogermellie #2 4 years ago

    I wonder if Microsoft will again be first to release a new console. They could keep the 360 as a entry level platform to continue to sell old titles and mimic the Sony's PS2 lifecycle. In the mean time they'll no doubt sell us the latest and greatest that is backwards compatible. But like you say kestral I think the current generation is good enough for most people.

  • peak_performance #3 4 years ago

    Well, as he sais it's the longer lifespans that some are proposing he doesn't believe in. I'd say he gives pretty good reasons for it as well, if one of the companies wants to stay 8 years on this generation the other will obviously want to capitalise and be the first on the next generation -- as seen this generation, it can be a huge advantage.

    5-6 years seems reasonable for generations to last imo.

  • mcbi4kh2 #4 4 years ago

    There's no successor to HD tv

    Not quite correct,
    [link url=http://www.geek.com/japanese-engineers-develop-hd tvs-successor/
    ]http://ww w.geek.com/japanese-engineers-d...[/link]
    [link url=http://www.ne oseeker.com/news/7526-33mpix-super-hi-vision-makes-hdtv-seem -downright-low-resolution/
    ]http://ww w.neoseeker.com/news/7526-33mpi...[/link]

    When they will reachn mainstream though, who knows?

    I do a gree with you though that the hardware will last longer this generation, I think the 360 has been out nearly as long as the xbox?

  • Colin8703 #5 4 years ago

    I don't feel as though this generation is anywhere near running it's course. All you'd be paying out for on a new generation would be a bigger hard drive and slightly better processors etc. I'm not a PC gamer but graphically PC games always gave me an idea of what to expect from the next console generation.

    PC graphics are better than consoles with the right card but i don't think it's a big enough gap to warrant another generation of hardware.

  • carrotcake #6 4 years ago

    All current systems are selling well. Nintendo and Microsoft were getting whupped by Sony in the last gen, and Microsoft were never going to make money with that hardware. They are good to go this time.

  • Farzlepot #7 4 years ago

    I fudging hope they last longer. The reason I bought a 360 was because I was sick of my PC being out-of-date three months after I spend countless hundreds of quid on the thing. If consoles start doing it as well... by god I'll be influenced by video game violence!

    Besides, Nintendo has taken the lead this generation, and they released a technically inferior console. What's the motivation for Sony and Microsoft to release new consoles when they're already more powerful than the market leader, but unable to eat away at that lead already? They still don't make money on the consoles they have, unlike Nintendo!
    Edited by 1 at 01/08/08 @ 11:50

  • tyke71 #8 4 years ago

    It's all going to come down to component prices and economics.
    I can't see the next gen consoles coming out until the components in them offer a significant performance increase over the current gen without pushing the console's price above £300.
    The PS3 showed that people are reluctant to pay more than this for a console.

  • sneetch #9 4 years ago

    @mcbi4kh2
    "Not quite correct,
    [link url=http://ww w.geek.com/japanese-engineers-d...
    ]http://ww w.geek.com/japanese-engineers-d...[/link]
    [link url=http://ww w.neoseeker.com/news/7526-33mpi...
    ]http://ww w.neoseeker.com/news/7526-33mpi...[/link]

    When they will reachn mainstream though, who knows?"

    Oof, 6GB a second 6GB/sec for uncompressed video on the second Ultra Super Duper Ninja Hi Def or whatever it's called. :)

    I have my doubts that we'll be seeing either in the next few decades. HDTV has been around since the early 80's after all and we're only now starting to upgrade to it and HDTV has relatively modest bandwidth requirements.

  • FooAtari #10 4 years ago

    "The reason I bought a 360 was because I was sick of my PC being out-of-date three months after I spend countless hundreds of quid on the thing."

    Fuck me, are the majority of EG retarded or what? The clueless bullshit thats gets posted here gets pretty tiresome. 3 months? What the hell crap hardware did you buy, because it was crap or already out of date if it only lasted three months.

    My computer is still playing the latest games just fine 18 months after release and I have no plans to upgrade for another year or so.

    /rant over. calms down.

  • Gurgeh #11 4 years ago

    If I had to guess, then the next-gen consoles will feature solid-state drives for storage and (obviously) improved graphics - Intel may try and tempt one of the players with the Larrabee chip. Sony will stick with Blu-ray but MS may jump to the next tech (HVD if the price comes down). The processor and architecture will be the toughest choice - do Sony stick with Cell given the investment by developers? Intel and AMD CPUs by that point are probably going to have at least 8 cores, and may have dozens or even hundreds of cores.

  • dieseljunkie #12 4 years ago

    Post deleted at 14:42:38 15-12-2011

  • BluShock #13 4 years ago

    I think this generation may last longer than the last one with the recession and all. If it gets bad as it's made out to be than hardware sales will start to slow due to less disposable cash. So certainly Sony and Microsoft would need to recoup their initial losses over a longer period.

  • Ryze #14 4 years ago

    Nintendo will kick off the next round by 2011 at the very latest, possibly 2010.

    M$ will want a piece of that pie too, but I can't tell / don't give a shit what Sony are doing.

  • IronCladChicken #15 4 years ago

    lol@FooAtari Too true man

  • dryden555 #16 4 years ago

    Colin, I'm not so sure the current consoles can do much more graphically than what they are doing now in current release games. There are some real graphic limitations with 256MB's of video RAM and 256MB's of system RAM. Why do you think we see so many console games with framerate issues and graphic draw-in?

    new consoles 2 years from now would be great.

  • FFS #17 4 years ago

    As a long-time Nintendo owner, every console has died to early thanks to competition even if it's been winning (same goes for Sega and Xbox but I'm on about Nintendo here). It's all about the software, not the hardware.

    However, I think that this will be the longest running gaming generation: 360 & PS3 have tied in services and given the hardware behind their consoles, it's in their best interests to milk this hardware by adding new online services and content for as long as possible. I also doubt that either have been pushed to their limit yet.

    As far as the Wii goes, it only needs new peripherals to keep going due to the new market. A new console risks alienating their mass casual userbase: just looks at the move from PS2 to PS3. I think it's going to outlast all of its predecessors, which is ironic. Because I want it to die as quickly as possible and for them to release a system that does not have waggle, just a normal controller with pointing ability.
    Edited by 1 at 04/08/08 @ 19:24

  • canIdoyabombsforya #18 4 years ago

    @FFS
    "Because I want it to die as quickly as possible and for them to release a system that does not have waggle, just a normal controller with pointing ability. "

    You think you'll look less of a spaz pointing a wavebird around with 2 hands?
    If the motion detection doesnt make you feel more involved in the games, dont buy those games. Theres nothing wrong with the way Galaxy, Kart, Resi 4, LostWinds use the 'waggle' (PC/Sony fanboy derogatory term) anyway.

    I find it sad that some people expect thumb twitching and mouse scooting to be the future of gaming.

    As for the future, get rid of optical media.