Duke nukes Take-Two share price

By Robert Purchese Published 16 June, 2011

Could LA Noire have done better?

Poor scores for Duke Nukem Forever and underperforming L.A. Noire sales have damaged Take-Two stock.

Share prices fell by over 4 per cent to $14.80 earlier this week, Market Watch reported.

Stocks are down more than 15 per cent since mid-May, although up for the year overall.

Duke Nukem Forever scored a "don't buy" 3/10 on Eurogamer. Metacritic's average of industry-wide scores are, at the time of writing, 57 per cent on PC, 56 per cent on PS3 and 48 per cent on Xbox 360.

However, the incredible hype surrounding Duke Nukem Forever's launch has propelled the game to the top of the UK charts, and will presumably have a strong effect on the US sales for June.

The question will be whether, once the curiosity and fan fever dies down, there's enough quality there to sustain best-selling status.

Doug Creutz, analyst for Cowen & Co., doesn't think so. He's told clients that the "extremely poor" reviews mean Take-Two's chances of achieving its annual money target have been "significantly reduced".

He's put a black spot next to the stock, marking it "underperform or sell".

L.A. Noire sold 899,000 copies in the US during May. Investment firm Wedbush Morgan said that was "below our estimate of one million units". The long-term potential of that, more niche game than Grand Theft Auto or Red Dead Redemption is also in question.

Red Dead Redemption had shipped five million copies worldwide by mid-June. Will L.A. Noire manage to become that third blockbuster series Rockstar wants?

The first 15 minutes of Duke Nukem Forever.

Picture of Robert.

About Robert Purchese

Bertie is Eurogamer's Senior Staff Writer. When he's not hunting down news stories he's often found playing with his kids or gabbling about fantasy games and strange online worlds. @Clert on Twitter.

Read more articles from Robert by visiting the Robert Purchese archive page.

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Comments (55) Latest comment 11 months ago

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  • oceanclub #1 11 months ago

    Considering that LA Noire is well-reviewed and seemingly ubitquitous, 900K is a very low figure.

    Perhaps they should have also released on PC and not just target niche console users. *tongue firmly in cheek*

    P.

  • TheTingler #2 11 months ago

    I'm really surprised that LA Noire is underperforming. Still, I didn't buy it and I don't know anyone who did. Bad word of mouth about several of the elements in it soured me on it, and it's still too expensive for just curiosity value.

    As for Duke, guess they shouldn't have rushed it out (IRONY!).

  • GamesProgrammer Verified Games Team Programmer, Eutechnyx Ltd. #3 11 months ago

    i love the fact that you clearly got into trouble with Take Two about your duke review (listen to podcast), yet it hasnt stopped you running more articles that contain "Duke Nukem Forever scored a "don't buy" 3/10 on Eurogamer"
    :)

  • Inmediasress #4 11 months ago

    @oceanclub
    That's somethign I have to agree not just because I would love to play LA noire on PC and red dead redemption for that matter but because LA Noire is a somewhat niche game and those usually fare well on the PC.

  • PierrePressure #5 11 months ago

    900k in the US is not bad when you consider it did well over here and I imagine across other territories.

    On the whole I enjoyed LA Noire, there were times when I thought 'fuck this game' and others where I thought that it was amazing.

    I would welcome a sequel.

  • Waffleaber #6 11 months ago

    Two million-plus selling games in a month? How ever will they survive?

  • Tonne #7 11 months ago

    always the same story, just like the team ico games, utterly brilliant and only a handfull buys it.

  • coolbritannia #8 11 months ago

    no multiplayer = no instabuy for me. I know I'll be dismissed as a casual but if the game experience will be the same 6 months down the road for £10 as it is at launch for £40, I will wait.

  • Shikasama #9 11 months ago

    Tonne you must have MASSIVE hands.

  • PinktotheLast #10 11 months ago

    I couldn't have been more excited about LA Noire. It was the first game I had preordered in a long time. The fact that I ended up siting on my couch and playing Zelda: Links awakening on my 3DS instead, a nearly 20 year old gameboy title, instead of LA Noire and enjoying it 100x more says a lot I think. The lack of any perceptible influence that the player can exert on the game shocked me a bit, in fact in several ways I think LA Noire could easily fall outside the definition of what a 'game' is. I really thought that this could be a defining game of this generation, but in fact I haven't been as disappointed about a game in a long time.

    I would obviously appreciate other points of view, of course.

  • speedjack #11 11 months ago

    LA Noire is a flippin' awesome - though I can see why the GTA brigade might not embrace it wholeheartedly as its not really a 'balls-out' action game.

    DNF is but is just plain weird and I'm not quite sure what to make of it - but it smacks of 1990s viewed through a badly optimised Unreal engine.

    Having said that the section I'm on (Alien Hive) I'm actually enjoying - and visually it looks a lot better than Vegas. Like I said... WEIRD game.

  • schnide #12 11 months ago

    Where are all the "blessed be the shareholders" comments now? Or could it be, perhaps, that we only resent those who make money and conveniently forget that by taking those risks you can lose it too?

    Edit: Seriously, I'm still waiting for an explanation rather than just blanket "OOOH, BIG BAD SHAREHOLDER!" negs :)
    Edited by schnide at 16/06/11 @ 13:18

  • octavedoctor #13 11 months ago

    I think the telling signs for me with LA Noire early on were the fact that there were barely any gameplay videos or previews, they were all about the story and the face-capture stuff.

    Shame though, wouldn't like to see Take 2 to end up being swallowed up by Activision if their stock is weak etc..

  • alimokrane #14 11 months ago

    So a game selling 900k is bad now? are you kidding me?

  • senso-ji #15 11 months ago

    @alimokrane
    Apparently, one million units is the break even point for modern large budget games. So any sales figures below that is unfortunately considered bad performance.

  • Kano-11 #16 11 months ago

    We really need an announcement for the next GTA. It's been 3 years since GTA IV and the shareholders must be starting to get impatient. An announcement would restore their faith and boost the share price back to healthy levels.

  • Murton #17 11 months ago

    Is the share price really news? A decrease following DNF doesn't really mean anything as the games industry tends to attract long term investors and not short term speculators.

    Anyone who looks to sell their shares just because the company has hit a bump in the road is going to regret it big time when GTA5 comes out and the price spikes like some kind of big spiky thing.

  • minimong #18 11 months ago

    @alimokrane
    Im afraid in a world of shareholders and high costs of game production, 900k is seen as bad, especially when they compare it to their last blockbuster GTA IV.

  • Bikram #19 11 months ago

    I am also dissapointed like many with LA Noire. Most of the cases are shallow and have totally expected ending. How you investigate doesn't make any difference to the outcome of the cases most of the time. The action whatever there is seems tacked on and side missions are plain boring. Open world is never used in any way. Still would like them to make a vastly improved sequel since I find the concept very good.

    And underperforming? Being on top of the charts for 3 weeks is underperforming, just because Patcher said so? Ok.

  • Freek #20 11 months ago

    Makes no sense, sure the game reviews were bad because the game is crap, but it sold gangbuster and that is all that should matter from a buisiness point of view.
    Duke Nukem is still a succesfull franchise even today.

  • Der_tolle_Emil #21 11 months ago

    Personally I think L.A. Noire is absolutely fantastic but I can see why it does not appeal to anyone. It really is more of an interactive movie rather than a full fledged game (especially if you compare it to other open world games like GTA) but the atmosphere is unmatched.

    The biggest problem of L.A. Noire is that it is really hard to see that differences in investigation do make quite a difference. I have been watching a friend of mine play the game and his cases sometimes turned out totally different. It is really impressive but I personally would have never seen how much of an impact the way of questioning witnesses actually has.

  • Ikaros_O #22 11 months ago

    899k in America alone is good, must of sold over million worldwide. Since when was that seen as a low figure...

  • Cheapshot #23 11 months ago

    You know there's something wrong with the industry when titles that top the charts for several weeks don't cut the mustard anymore. 0_o

  • RoOhDaMite #24 11 months ago

    I'd say EG is once again trying to bash on Duke.

    It is not because of the 3/10 for Duke Nukem Forever their share dropped, in the same way it didn't increase because of good reviews for LA Noir.

    Their share dropped because they failed to announce GTA5 during e3 week.

  • Shikasama #25 11 months ago

    Anyone who uses a term like 'GTA Brigade' to describe people who felt let down by LA Noire need to play better investigation games.

    The departure from GTA is not the main reason people don't like it, the poor game mechanics, hand holding and overall lack of any sort of logical thought required from the player are. You aren't special for liking LA Noire because it is different, you just need to play the better games of its genre.

  • uglygamer #26 11 months ago

    So a game selling 900k is bad now? are you kidding me?

    Its not, but this game had Rockstars name on it. Usually their games sell much better than 900k on launch month.

  • Markitron #27 11 months ago

    Shame about LA Noire, I actually prefer it over Red Dead and GTA

  • darkphoenix #28 11 months ago

    I am in no rush to buy LA Noire because Rockstar butchered the 360 version.
    That I don't forgive easily.

  • Dave52 #29 11 months ago

    I think LA Noir looks awesome, but I'm waiting for a drop in price before jumping in. I think a lot of people are seeing £40 games drop down to around the £25 mark after a month or so. This could be hurting initial game sales.

  • Rangerwave #30 11 months ago

    I lose my will to live when Duke Nukem Forever is at the top of the charts and LA Noire misses its targets...

  • obscured021 #31 11 months ago

    EG i dont know why you bashed duke so hard, its a great game and plays just fine on pc i know the console versions are dodgey but still give duke a break. I have not played LA Noire yet i was hopeing for a pc version but will get it on ps3/360 (which everone is cheaper in the 2nd had section) 50-60 euro for a console game is way to much, same game on pc is 30.

    edit cant spell :)
    Edited by obscured021 at 16/06/11 @ 12:13

  • Gearskin #32 11 months ago

    Poor scores do not damage share price. Poor sales do.

    How can you open and say poor scores have hurt on Duke, and then sight LA Noire, which scored insanely well?

    Money.Money.Money

  • YailBloor #33 11 months ago

    LA Noire is by no means perfect, but yesterday I came home from work and one of the first things my girlfriend said to me was 'can we put the PS3 on?'. This literally never happens—she hates all of my other games. For that reason alone it's a 10 out of 10 for me, and I hope it performs well enough to justify a sequel—a sequel that's a bit more challenging, with all of the problems ironed out.

  • Cryotek #34 11 months ago

    As much as i enjoy LA Noire, i can see why it didn't sell well. Word of mouth among fans expecting GTA probably killed it.
    For me though, i enjoy it but it has some awful writing at times. The Fallen Idol case felt so poorly constructed and written, and when it ended, i felt like there were so many plot threads left hanging that it made me not just disappointed in the game, but actually angry at it.

  • spekkeh #35 11 months ago

    @Dave52: LA Noire is 30 quid at amazon, down from 34 on release date. I got to a point where I don't get people that say games are too expensive anymore.

  • SpaceMidget75 Verified Senior Software Developer, Minerva Computer Services #36 11 months ago

    Alan Wake, Enslaved & LA Noire. None of them sold as well as expected and going by anecdotal evidence it was because people waited for the inevitable price drop. With no multiplayer aspects, my friends had no reason to pick it up at launch.

    It was only after seeing the MP trailer for RDR that we decided to get it at launch, even though the SP was massively supperior to the MP IMO.

    It's a shame as I'd hate to see MP showhorned into games even more than it is now, and I suspect that devs are going to either have to drop prices a bit, add some form of replayablity to story driven SP games or just wait out for the long tail (Enslaved and AW both sold well over a longer period)

  • lexxx #37 11 months ago

    i agree with a lot of the comments but still, i am very much enjoying LA Noire. i'd probably buy DLC for it if it was substantial (but not if its just a new case or two)

    although saying that, i do miss the horse riding from RDR, which was enjoyable in itself. maybe they could do an alternative reality where cars weren't invented or just never got popular, and everyone still rides horseback.

  • BBIAJ #38 11 months ago

    @darkphoenix:

    How did R* butcher L.A. Noire exactly, because it game on three disks?

    Would you tater it looked and played like arse by cramming a cut down version on to one disk?

    Or better still, have to buy a PS3 in order o play it at all?

    Please explain your post to me, as I am really struggling to understand it in the slightest.

  • Rack #39 11 months ago

    Given how unique it is I'd bet on the long-tail of L.A. Noire being pretty good.

  • paulf #40 11 months ago

    900k is only 10% less than 1 million folks, don't panic !

  • Dave52 #41 11 months ago

    @spekkeh I wasn't suggesting that games are too expensive, but unless a game comes out that is an absolute day one purchase - a lot of people are happy to wait for a month until it's £25 in Asda. This will innevitably effect the first month sales.

  • tachometer #42 11 months ago

    These experts realise the next GTA will be out before long, they want to push the share price down so they can make a killing when it shoots up when they release GTAV

  • darc #43 11 months ago

    L.A. Noire strikes as did Heavy Rain, a really interesting, really impressive game that simply doesn't look all that fun to play. In both cases I'm inclined to wait until they come down in price. (But Heavy Rain has gone an amazing 2 years without being substantially discounted!)

  • Subdominator #44 11 months ago

    900.000 copies in the US alone in less than two weeks is not bad, no matter what analyst might tell you. Worldwide is must have already beaten 2 million and is doing pretty well. It is doing much better than i.e. Heavy Rain. It was marketed as an adventure game so that pretty much guarantees that you won't sell numbers like RDR or GTA.

    The problem with T2/Rockstar is that it takes them waaaaayyyyy too long to develop games. RDR was more or less seven years in the making, LA Noire six years, GTA 4 took four and a half years and cost 100 million. That is excluding marketing costs that can reach almost the same amount of money for AAA titles as the actual development costs. With that in mind it is no wonder that GTA 4 was not exactly a financial success for Take 2 - which is the real reason why they try to get other hit IPs. In fact things were so bad for Take 2 after the release of GTA 4 that they got a $50 million credit from Microsoft (which lead to the timed excusivity of the GTA 4 episodes). GTA 5 will take at least four years to make, probably more like five. The engine is there but content creation is what takes so long.

    Agent (PS3 exclusive) is in the making for four years now and we haven't seen a single screenshot. Bioshock 2 will end up taking at least five years to make if they don't delay it. Duke Nukem Forever (but Take 2 didn't fund the game, only paid for being able to publish it) took fifteen years. Prey took eleven years. If you take so much time as Take 2 does, you're always balancing on a cliff. If one game fails you're going down. That is why the share price drops. And I'm pretty sure Activision Blizzard is actively going after them.

  • Pasco #45 11 months ago

    To the people asking since when a million units sold is bad. The answer is: since developing a game costs 30 million $ and a publisher doesn't make more than 30$ per unit. Epic told people that the costs of development for Gears of War 1 was 10 million $ and you better believe they were low-balling it and excluded the costs for developing the engine to make their engine look good. You can also bet that marketing for AAA tiles costs a couple or tens of millions.

  • Ryze #46 11 months ago

    @GamesProgrammer

    FUCK YEAH!

  • Bravestinsane #47 11 months ago

    i played my friend copy of LA Noir, and while i thought the animations and cases were really good, there wasn't anything else other than that tbh.

    There was this huge city and nothing to do, felt boring, i couldn't go off and do my own thing, side missions were just simple shootouts which i managed to finish in a couple of minutes.

    I like the idea of playing as a certain character but in this game i couldn't play the character as i wanted, i was told how to play, if i didn't drive nicely i would be punished with a bad ending, driving nicely is boring, i just wanted to get to the next case, by the end of a the first 2 cases i just ended up skipping all the driving.

    LA Noir while it was a good game just didn't really "WOW" me it just felt like the most closed open world game i have played in a very long time.

  • Natas_Enasni #48 11 months ago

    Muahhahahahaha; the curse I laid upon Take-Two is still active.

  • mortiz666 #49 11 months ago

    A sad day we live in when a game can sell 900K units in a month and be considered a dissapointment.

  • Hellion83 #50 11 months ago

    Post deleted at 20:12:17 01-02-2012

  • fluff_the_tiger #51 11 months ago

    Always bet on Duke

  • leemel #52 11 months ago

    Don't worry too much, share prices are just down in general as it's summer.. sure as the markets pick up they will perform better.. although sales will dictate things in the long term..

  • Ahskay #53 11 months ago

    I have said it before and i will say it again. You should be ashamed of yourselves for awarding the Duke with a 3/10. On pc it's quite enjoyable, whoever says otherwise is just being a spoiled child that needs his candy. But no, they took the worst ported version and gave it a score that stands for all versions. Lazy piss poor reviewer tactics.

  • DDevil #54 11 months ago

    The only thing piss-poor is your reasoning Ahskay. How would they know the 360 version would be the "worst ported version" before reviewing the game? There's absolutely NO doubt the 360 version would sell the most copies, so it makes absolutely perfect sense for them to review it.

    Don't forget EG's 3/10 isn't the lowest score this game received.

  • riseer #55 11 months ago

    LA Noire is a great game just gamers are all about killing stuff..all the time.