WOW "sucked oxygen" from MMO subs

By Robert Purchese Published 2 November, 2010

F2P or you'll be "skating up hill" - Cryptic.

World of Warcraft has "sucked the oxygen" from the subscription market: that's why the tide is turning towards free-to-play. And the only game with enough clout to compete is BioWare's Star Wars: The Old Republic.

"You're skating up hill if you don't offer a free-to-play option," Cryptic Studios head Jack Emmert told Eurogamer. "You're skating up against World of Warcraft and theoretically SWTOR. That's your competition. And unless you think your games are as good or better than those - because you also have to overcome their reputation - it's going to be highly unlikely a large number of people, meaning 200,000-plus, are going to be willing to subscribe to your game. And a lot of companies are making $50-60-70 million bets, and I just don't see that there's a market for their products."

He added: "I don't foresee anything toppling those [WOW and SWTOR] at the moment. You either build-big or go home; you have to spend at least $50 million on your product, and even then it's a basic proposition. When you come out, you've got to not only beat World of Warcraft as it was when it launched, you've got to beat all the developments it has had since then. That's really, really hard."

That's why Jack Emmert has followed Turbine's envious lead and decided to make Champions Online a free-to-play experience as of early next year.

"I don't believe that subscriptions are dead," Emmert expanded, "because there are 10 million or so people subscribing to WOW that beg to differ. What I think is there are simply not as many people willing to pay another subscription in addition to WOW, in addition to their Xbox Gold membership.

"As a result, they'll pay, but only for games that are worth it. They reserve judgement. They're not going to go into a store and buy an MMO off the shelf and start committing to a subscription month in month out unless they're 100 per cent sure that game matches their expectations, and so often times they don't even try it.

"What free-to-play does is say, 'Go ahead and try it, there's nothing at risk here.' There isn't this sense that you're adding a charge onto your monthly Visa bill or what have you; you're just sampling it, giving it a shot, seeing if it works. If it doesn't, no harm no foul - you don't play.

"World of Warcraft has pretty much sucked the oxygen out of the subscription market and kind of devoured it itself," he added, "and those games that are currently subscription-based are battling for a very, very small market of people who either don't like WOW or are willing to pay a second subscription."

Go subscription, go up against this.

Emmert launched City of Heroes in April 2007 (US) to a world that hadn't played World of Warcraft. The genre might have been unproven, he said, but it was sky that was the limit.

"I would say that the potential MMO consumer market... You are fighting for a smaller number of people than when I launched City of Heroes," Emmert declared.

"There had been EverQuest, which had gone through more than a million different people, but a lot of people were waiting for the next great thing and were constantly jumping from game to game.

That's how Mythic's Dark Age of Camelot attracted 250,000 subscribers, Emmert explained - a number City of Heroes was "not far behind".

World of Warcraft announced 12 million monthly subscribers recently. A large chunk of those are in China and pay a different amount to Westerners. But still the numbers are massive.

Can, as Emmert suggested, BioWare really be the WOW-toppler we've so desperately wanted to label every MMO since 2006 as? Taking EA's alleged $300m investment as gospel would suggest it has the scope to be.

"If I'm a consumer and I walk into a store and I look at it, I have to be 100 per cent sure that that subscription game is going to deliver an experience equal to or better than World of Warcraft. That's my benchmark. If they can do that..." he pondered.

"Now, here's the thing: BioWare and the team and certainly with the money they've spent on it, there's every reason for the consumer to believe that the quality level will be equal. From their point of view, they can probably attract that attention - they can still get the benefit of the doubt. It's BioWare, right? We all know BioWare makes great games. They'll buy it.

"But then it's will the game be good enough?" Emmert asked. "I'm not here to judge."

"It's BioWare, right? We all know BioWare makes great games."

Picture of Robert.

About Robert Purchese

Bertie is Eurogamer's Senior Staff Writer. When he's not hunting down news stories he's often found playing with his kids or gabbling about fantasy games and strange online worlds. @Clert on Twitter.

Read more articles from Robert by visiting the Robert Purchese archive page.

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Comments (52) Latest comment 2 years ago

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  • superfurry #1 2 years ago

    "When you come out, you've got to not only beat World of Warcraft as it was when it launched, you've got to beat all the developments it has had since then."

    This is pretty much the crux of the issue. When defending newly launched and buggy MMOs, people always point to the fact that WoW was released in a similar state and while it may have been it was also released into a market with zero competition. Developers aren't competing with WoW as it was at launch, they're competing with it now.
    Edited by superfurry at 02/11/10 @ 18:43

  • MaxiSleep #2 2 years ago



    Crap unfinished games are what are sucking the market place dry and Cryptic are prime suspects here.

    I have bought most of the MMO releases since WoW launched. And I stopped playing most of them because they launched in a pitiable state. F2P will not fix this.

    The big test of an MMO is simple. Is it fun. And to be fun you need to look at the most basic variables like
    how often do you want the player to trigger special abilities? How many choices per minute of combat do you want the player to undertake? Does the animation provide smooth feedback of the toons state? WoW for all its many many faults has this down to a tee. It is relaxing to play for extended periods of time if you want to grind, and has plenty of quests if you want to go down that route.

    Star Wars from the gameplay videos I have seen is going to be the next epic fail since its combat looks bland and uninteresting.

    I really realy want to play another MMO then WoW. MMo's are great value for money even with a sub when you look at the price you play per hour of gameplay. So far the industry had not even tried to compete with it.

    And screw you Cryptic for having to waste money on your dog Champions Online
    Edited by MaxiSleep at 02/11/10 @ 17:17

  • Kode #3 2 years ago

    I find it odd how he talks about SWTOR like it has been released and is doing great, for all we know it could go the way of APB, to the great MMO heaven.

  • iokthemonkey #4 2 years ago

    I've been playing Runes of Magic for a few weeks now and I've had more fun with that than I did playing STO and - costume creation and swinging around the city aside - it's also more fun than CO. Yes, I'll be going back to CO when it goes F2P, because I think as a free game it's worth playing, but given how shallow it is, it's not a long-term game or the kind of thing you want to commit to spending a sub to play.

    Interesting though that STO is to remain a sub-based game.

  • Benno #5 2 years ago

    SWTOR isn't competition, it looks worse than wow did 8 years ago.

  • UncleLou #6 2 years ago

    Or you could do something different except yet another bog standard MMO, and carve a niche for yourself. See EVE.

  • iokthemonkey #7 2 years ago

    I think SWTOR is going to be pretty poor, to be honest. I'm sure it'll have a fanbase - hell, people enjoy EQII and WOW and I think both are pretty poor - but I'm really not at all interested in it. I'd rather see SWG return to the pre-combat ''fix'' iteration. If SOE did that, I'd re-subscribe tomorrow.

  • specular #8 2 years ago

    He's probably right about the omnipresent WoW and how tough it is to battle with Blizzard over that same market. When they brought out CO it apparently wasn't good enough, according to his own theory. Wasn't there another article where he was bashing his own product a few weeks back? I'm waiting on the SW game personally, hope it will be something special.

  • Shikasama #9 2 years ago

    Jack - the fact that your games are shit and created with no thought to mechanics, polish or content has nothing to do with WoW and SWTOR being able to feed of subscriptions.

  • darkmorgado #10 2 years ago

    So a couple of weeks ago he admitted their previous games were shit and that was why they didn't sell, and now he's doing a u-turn and saying its not fair he has competition.

    I'm going to light a candle for Neverwinter Nights I think.

  • vijay_UK #11 2 years ago

    @iokthemonkey, 02/11/10 @ 17:55

    SOE blew it imo, it was going pretty well and then their NGE buggered it all up. SWG was my first move into MMO and was great at first. I even tried a 'let's see if anything has improved' return last year, got bored after 1/2hr. This is where Blizzard have the advantage; they have the product, but refuse to get careless so people still pay (and so will I when Cata is out). WoW won't go F2P for years yet, if ever.

  • iokthemonkey #12 2 years ago

    I'm the same Vijay - I tried the new trial thing and uninstalled it (well, had to physically delete it, as the uninstaller doesn't work) after about an hour, simply as the combat was so convoluted and just unplayable that I became utterly frustrated with it all and just gave up.

  • Red-Moose #13 2 years ago

    The only way a new game can be succesful is if it's some awesome instances game within WoW itself that requires an extra fee.

  • dudefella #14 2 years ago

    No, it's because WoW is literally ten times better than any other MMO ever. It's not perfect by far, but most MMO's, truth be told, are pretty awful. MMO's often get a pass on crummy design choices because they're MMO's, and even WoW has tedium in it, but they've marginalized it by making groups easier to find etc. Most MMO's are just not very good.

    And I've played WoW, LOTRO, City of Heroes/Villains, Champions Online, Age of Conan and Final Fantasy XI. And those are some of the most popular ones, but the only one I wanted to play beyond its free month was LOTRO and that's because it is the most like WoW. Go figure.

    I have high hopes for the Old Republic though, but not so high that I'll be shocked and appalled if it isn't everything they said it'd be (it probably won't)
    Edited by dudefella at 02/11/10 @ 19:11

  • butler` #15 2 years ago

    Just... no.

    From Cryptic? Especially no.

  • curtlikesmeat #16 2 years ago

    WoW is just better, that's all it is. Judging on what I've seen of SWTOR it doesn't look anything special at all, just more of the same. I'm not sure if more of the same is good enough in this genre.

  • Canyarion #17 2 years ago

    Deathwing just asks to be hit in his weak spot for massive damage!

  • IronCladChicken #18 2 years ago

    @superfurry
    Didn't WoW launch just after Everquest 2? - The sequal to the (then) big daddy of MMO's?

  • vijay_UK #19 2 years ago

    @iokthemonkey:

    I remember looking forward to Friday nights, because I knew I would be hanging outside Mos Eisley's Cantina, many times early into Saturday morning. Just chatting to people, hanging about and taking in all that is great about SW. The combat was good and simple, even better when joining up with people to go bash anything that dared to move. The music was great especially when combat kicked in. SWG was just pure fun, and then SOE changed it and refused to listen to their customers who knew best. *Sigh*

  • Machetazo #20 2 years ago

    Where does Guild Wars 2 fit in to the pecking order?

  • iokthemonkey #21 2 years ago

    Yup - that's what I loved so much about SWG - there was a real community built around the cities and stuff. It wasn't that they were super-busy (although they could be) but rather that people interacted in the Cantinas/Med Centres and it formed proper in-game friendships. It's such a shame they changed it all...

  • vijay_UK #22 2 years ago

    @curtlikesmeat:

    Imo, its the fans that will make the game. As for Bioware, as long as they get most things in-game right from the off, the game should succeed. Anything that needs polish can be sorted down the line, that's what patches are for.

  • vijay_UK #23 2 years ago

    @iokthemonkey:

    Spot on there. This is what I hope SW:TOR will do - capture the fun and spirit of the original trilogy. Fans may watch SW less these days (thanks to AOTC), but I doubt they will turn their back on a quality MMO
    Edited by vijay_UK at 02/11/10 @ 20:02

  • Spekingur #24 2 years ago

    Releasing F2P MMOs is going to make people be more at ease with faults of such an MMO.

    I do not particulary like WoW as such but you can't refuse its popularity - even if it's just because of the grind-addiction. It's the same reason why people get addicted to Minecraft although in a diffrent manner.

  • Vixremento #25 2 years ago

    Age of Conan had so much potential...the first 20 levels had quite a lot of work put into them (don't release prematurely...especially if you're going up against WoW) however after that it just got crappy (maybe it's better now...but it's too late now). I had a level 52 character in AoC...having to grind an additional two levels to progress pissed me off, crappy crafting, etc. etc. etc. The combat mechanics were rather refreshing though (instancing and pvp also sucked).

    Other than that I'm starting to get really bored with WoW (and their latency for me recently has been really f^cked up beyond all belief)...willing to take two weeks and devote it to some Eve online to see if it'll grab my attention once I've managed to muster all the learning that's required.
    Patience is a virtue
    Virtue is a grace
    Grace is a little girl
    Who didn't wash her face!
    Edited by Vixremento at 02/11/10 @ 21:17

  • Stratix #26 2 years ago

    Not only is it the cost, but the time investment. Being in full time work, I just don't have enough time to play more than one MMO while juggling a decent social life.

    I had already invested a lot of time in WoW, and I have loads of friends on it already, so it would be very difficult for another game requiring hundreds of hours of play time to attract my attention.

    I might try Star Wars, but that is a special case.

  • orpheus #27 2 years ago

    @Vixremento - if you do, make sure you check the EG forums and post in the Eve thread - there's plenty of EG'ers who'd be willing to help you get started. :)

    Eve is my first MMO, and it took a lot of patience (and some help!) to get my head round it. It's the only subscription I'll pay for gaming beyond Live (any more is too much, and I'm not interested in WOW etc at all), but it's well worth it. Never had a gaming experience quite like it, once it gets going!

    As for F2P, I've got a lot of mates on LOTRO, but it doesn't appeal to me that much as a world. Probably a valid point about new MMOs taking on WOW, tho I'm not sure F2P is the way to overcome it.
    Edited by orpheus at 03/11/10 @ 00:57

  • Sunyavadin #28 2 years ago

    One of the best things to come from WoW.

  • craziii #29 2 years ago

    +1 to maxisleep, what he typed is all this discussion needs.

    I also find the swtor's gameplay videos to be extremely bland :( this is coming from a guy who hasn't touch wow in years.

  • WizenWolfBain #30 2 years ago

    "Crap unfinished games are what are sucking the market place dry and Cryptic are prime suspects here. "

    Completely agree. Cryptic peaked my interest when Champions Online came out... But it was half finished. And then again with Star Trek Online... I met it with immense disappointment.

    Cryptic need to go free to play, because none of their games are worth paying for.

  • IMD1_Pk #31 2 years ago

    I think Guild Wars 2 is good competition

  • thebuzzard #32 2 years ago

    "Emmert launched City of Heroes in April 2007 (US) to a world that hadn't played World of Warcraft. The genre might have been unproven, he said, but it was sky that was the limit."

    But WoW came out end of 2004 in US.

  • levitate #33 2 years ago

    I started my real MMO career with Anarchy Online back in the days. That was a game worth subscribing to, it was absolutely massive (still is btw). But Funcom botched it and new promised features have never been realised (hm, where did I hear that before?)

    The difference with Blizzard is that they don't make any rash decisions and instead drip-feed their new features, together with extensive communication with the community. It's not always a discussion we like but it's the community that does it. No other game has it.
    Edited by levitate at 03/11/10 @ 08:10

  • Rack #34 2 years ago

    City of Heroes US launch was April 2004, must have been a typo.

    I can see his point but I'm not sure he's entirely right. LotRo was surviving fine, AoC is struggling along and I reckon Champions would have done okay if they hadn't throttled it by developing STO and NWN instead of giving it proper support. WoW has six years of polish, but it also has 6 year old content and design decisions.

  • bigbadbeasty #35 2 years ago

    I think Guild Wars 2 is the real competition for WoW. Old Republic looked promising early in development, but is now starting to look quite disappointing.

    If I am honest I do think people are tiring of games like WoW, I know a lot of players, and while they still play (sorry- pay), the attitude almost feels like reluctance, and acceptance of nothing else. I personally think that the whole genre needs a kick in the arse!

  • Kami #36 2 years ago

    I keep saying it - WoW is the exception, not the rule. If it were the rule, most of the MMOs over the years would have made umpteen millions. But - they haven't. In the last few years we've even seen some closed down. World of Warcraft is a phenomenon, but that is what makes it successful - it is polished, refined and stable (for the most part) but its success is down to a number of contributing factors, not just that it is a good MMO.

    And again, I said it in another topic, you have a choice with subs - you can pay from release, supporting the devs and the game, or you can wait and see if it goes F2P in a year or so. Complaining about subs is a fruitless exercise.

    WoW isn't sucking the oxygen from the market - rather, most MMO devs are full of hot air... and a single spark makes the area spontaneously combust, ruining it all. I like Champions Online. I don't regret subbing to it - but, on the other hand, Cryptic do talk a lot of shit sometimes and that really annoys me...

  • geeza2020 #37 2 years ago

    World of zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

  • subedii #38 2 years ago

    WOW "sucked oxygen" from MMO subs

    I guess that's why EVE Online has thousands playing in a vacuum

  • NorfolkNClue #39 2 years ago

    Another question might be is can someone come up with a better idea than mob grinding for XP/loot?

  • NorfolkNClue #40 2 years ago

    @subedii Lets be honest, although Eve is mint (I play it myself in preference to WoW) they're a tiny sliver of the size. CCP claim 300K+ active subs - but how many of those are individuals? There are tens of thousands of people with at least 2 seperate accounts, and thousands with 3 and up. I reckon 100K tops.

  • scoop #41 2 years ago

    "Once I put my mind to something, nothing in the Galaxy can stop me."

    Fantasic, that was like a clip from The Apprentice! :)

    Animation and acting, clearly weren't at the top of the priority list... very poor.

    (talking about the star wars video. I was falling asleep reading the article - Cryptic just come across as sore).
    Edited by scoop at 03/11/10 @ 13:54

  • scoop #42 2 years ago

    @Norfolk "Another question might be is can someone come up with a better idea than mob grinding for XP/loot? "

    You have to also convince MMO players that grinding is bad. They all complain about it, yet too many of them love it. Take it away, and you find the shallow game underneath; one that won't keep anyone playing for months or years.

  • subedii #43 2 years ago

    @Norfolk'n'Clue:


    Just thought it was the obvious joke to make.

    That said, I'm a bit more sceptical that a full 1/2 of EVE's playerbase has two accounts (which would bring it down to 200,000 users).

    And if the playerbase is actually only 100,000 as you say, that would be literally three active accounts for every user.
    Edited by subedii at 03/11/10 @ 15:17

  • Trikk #44 2 years ago

    WoW became a success because it launched when it launched, with the perfect IP and then got enough momentum to start the snowball effect.

  • SL33PY #45 2 years ago

    EVE online is not the biggest game on the block, they do have a vast install base and up to around 60k users online in one virtual world (eat that wow ;-)). CCP still turns enough profit and also invests back into the game. Saying that MMO using the classic pay for play method doesn't work just isn't true.

    Sometimes you have to get out of the box in order to see it.

  • NorfolkNClue #46 2 years ago

    @scoop admittedly, it had me addicted...for about 3 weeks. Then I just got sick of, "Go here, collect 10 boar tusks" or whatever. Was fine when the drop rate was 1:1, but when the ratio lowered, it got really tedious. Played Tabula Rasa for a bit, and within 5 minutes had it down for the same thing. I stuck with it for a bit simply because it was sci-fi based. Not really seen any MMO that has managed to release itself from the ISK/XP/Loot grind.

  • Talbot #47 2 years ago

    Can we not just face facts and admit that all these MMORPG's are just shit?

  • ircaddicts #48 2 years ago

    I see we have lots of delusional wow fanbois in this thread. wow was, is and ALLWAYS will be CRAP. I've been playing mmo's for all most 10 years now and its is the worst mmo I have EVER played by a VERY long way. Uttlery boring game play, grx that look like they where drawn by blind three years old. Players that are not much old than that and behave worse, totaly UNbalenced pvp. So what if it has 902546798257 billion people are playing it. Still does'nt make it a good game. if you want to play a fantasy game go play lotro or guild wars both of which are VASTLY better than wow is or will EVER be. Also there are NO subs for either of them.

    swtor is going to be an EPIC FAIL I sure it will start well but as soon as people find out just how bad it is they player base will vanish. Why does anyone need to beat wow anyway? I'd rather all the delusional wow fanbois stayed in thier crappy game and did'nt come to others and moan about how good wow used to be and how what ever game they happen to be in sucks in comparsion.

  • craziii #49 2 years ago

    guild wars 1 is a mmo? are you one of those bitter kids who can't get their parents to pay for their gaming habits?

  • hobojebus #50 2 years ago

    Haters are gonna hate.

    WoW isnt for everyone but millions like it who are you to tell them they are wrong?

    If a new MMO fails its because it was poorly made and poorly advertised to potential customers, APB was mis managed and failed badly because of it as they had to release an incomplete game, Aion didnt steal alot of WoW's subscribers because it was a grind fest that westeners soon got bored of.

    WaR failed because it was a WoW clone that was buggy as hell with boring PvE content, very few dungeons and for a game that was reliant on PvP leveling no balance at all, 90% of people were disorder because rolling a chaos warrior meant you won.

    WoW didnt suck out the oxygen, it just set the bar higher than its competitors can reach.

  • actionfitz #51 2 years ago

    "When you come out, you've got to not only beat World of Warcraft as it was when it launched, you've got to beat all the developments it has had since then. That's really, really hard."

    has it really taken until November 2010 for developers to realise that?
    fuck me...

  • actionfitz #52 2 years ago

    I agree that things dont look well for ToR.
    It has all the right ingredients... but so far the most impressive thing i've seen are the spectacular CGI sequences by Blur studios...