New Xbox & PlayStation 4: What to Expect
Crytek UK, Epic and more on what the next generation holds.
Video game graphics achieved using the DirectX 11 standard provide a solid indication of the visual power of the next Xbox and PlayStation, Eurogamer has been told.
Eurogamer has also been told that visuals on a par with Hollywood blockbuster movie Avatar are a genuine possibility on the next generation of consoles - a claim first made by graphics technology company AMD and now backed up by video game developers.
As part of an investigation into the next generation of home consoles, Eurogamer has learnt from developers what gamers can expect from the next Xbox and the PlayStation 4.
"It's going to depend a lot on when Sony and Microsoft decide is the right moment to announce and launch things," Crytek UK principal programmer Pete Hall tells Eurogamer, "but it does feel at the moment that the hardware we get in next generation consoles will be about the sort of level that DX11 is at - that's where it currently looks like it's going."
Crytek, creator of game engine CryEngine 3, recently added DirectX 11 support to the PC version of first-person shooter Crysis 2, prompting some suggestions that it makes the sci-fi first-person shooter look so good that it provides a glimpse into the next generation.
But Crytek, rumoured to be making TimeSplitters 4 for Microsoft and Sony's next consoles, reckons better visuals are possible.
"The DX11 support for Crysis 2 was planned quite early on, but while it was being implemented, we were discovering things about the production methods we'd use," Mark Tully, Crytek lead programmer, adds, "If we'd done it slightly differently, we could have achieved even higher results. Those learnings will be going into future Crytek projects. The authoring processes will be able to still target the consoles, but be able to produce even higher results on DX11 than what we were able to achieve with Crysis 2.
"That in itself is exciting."
Earlier this year Epic released the Samaritan tech demo - a real-time video designed to provide a glimpse into what the next generation of consoles will be capable of. But is Samaritan a realistic expectation for the next-generation? Will we really see graphics on that level? Mark Rein, co-founder of Gears of War and Unreal Engine maker Epic Games, says the answer is a definite yes.
"It is already possible on PCs today albeit very high end ones," he tells Eurogamer. "Broadly-speaking tomorrow's console is today's high end PC, whose level of technology eventually trickles down to affordable PCs, set-top boxes and mobile devices as well. So it makes sense that this is the kind of thing the next generation of consoles could power. It is just a question of timing."
And, according to Rein, Direct X 11 is a good guideline as to what gamers will see from the next generation.
Samaritan debuted at GDC this year. Epic is yet to decide whether it will spawn a game.
"Yes I think there is a feature set there that provides the ability to make clearly-discernible visual improvements over what can be done on today's consoles. Samaritan was an early attempt to demonstrate that," he says.
"As a content developer we'll get better at exploiting these features over time and, as a technology provider, we'll continue to deliver tools and technology that helps our licensees to do the same. In the mean time we've already shipped Samaritan's DX11 feature set in the latest Unreal Engine 3."
"Where the PCs are now compared to what [Sony and Microsoft] are going to do, I assume will be close," Hall says. This week AMD, which is rumoured to be providing the graphics technology powering the next Xbox, said Microsoft's next home console will be so powerful it will be capable of reproducing graphics on a par with James Cameron's computer generated movie blockbuster Avatar.
Many baulked at the suggestion, but Crytek believes it may be possible on future consoles. "One of our rendering guys was looking at that article and was saying he reckons that's doable now with DX11 on PC," Hall enthuses, "I get the feeling it could happen. It could be next-gen consoles. It does feel like if we're able to keep pushing DirectX 11 into the next generation of consoles we should be able to produce some fantastic stuff with CryEngine."
While gamer tongues are wagging on the potential power of the next generation, for developers, visuals are just one facet of the next-gen battle."It's one thing to have the graphics that look like Avatar, but you want to move everything else on a step as well," Hall says.
Tully agrees. "We always use graphics as the benchmark for what's going to be so great about the next game on this platform - but obviously you've got other aspects. In single-player you've got AI, and in multiplayer you've got, well, how do we better integrate the community into the game so it's more of a social experience? There are all these different areas you can move forward in. It's not always just about the graphics, although that is a big part of it."
Director of ISV relationships at AMD, Neal Robison, said Microsoft's unannounced console will allow developers to make every pedestrian in an open world game such as Grand Theft Auto or Saints Row have a totally individual mentality so they react to the player in different ways. Crowds will then act as a group of individuals rather than predictable mobs.
While this sounds great on paper, the sheer power offered by the next-gen presents its own set of problems. "There's one thing getting the raw power to do these things," Tully says. "Another thing is taking advantage of that in a coherent way, to produce a game. That's the challenge we'll be looking to when we start working on those consoles. It's going to be really interesting to work with."
To overcome these challenges, Crytrek will use its own, in-house game engine CryEngine 3, which it claims is ready for next generation game development now.
This, coupled with the benefit of having experience using advanced PCs today, means the studio should be able to manage the inevitable transition - rather than be stung by it.
"Because [CryEngine] is aimed at both the consoles and the high-end PCs, it means we can add in new features on the high end PCs as we go along," Hall says, "and then when the console becomes available, we'll be able to actually pick a level and set it up there and things should work - although it's never 100 per cent that simple."
Microsoft is rumoured to be preparing a reveal of its next Xbox at E3 2012. Eurogamer has recently had this claim backed up by a number of game industry sources.
Eurogamer has also heard a 2014 release of the next Xbox was planned by Microsoft, but this has now been brought forward to 2013 as a result of Nintendo's confirmed 2012 launch of the Wii U.
Additionally, sources have indicated to us that larger publishers and developers already have target specs of both the next Xbox and PlayStation to help them with their development.
Both Microsoft and Sony have refused to directly comment on their next generation plans, instead pointing to the continued success of the Xbox 360 and PS3. Last year Microsoft said motion-sensing add-on Kinect would add five years onto the life of the 360, whereas Sony has described the PS3's life cycle as "ten years plus".
But is now the right time for the next-generation? Do developers want the next Xbox or PlayStation?
"I'd like to see it at a time when consumers are going to be ready to adopt it and jump in whole-heartedly," Rein said. "I'm not in a huge hurry for it. I'd rather wait until they can bring out hardware that can do Samaritan affordably than bring out something super high-priced and the market adopts it slowly as they wait for a price drop. Either way I'm confident we'll have great a great game engine for it thanks to the efforts we've already got underway like Samaritan."
Crytek UK is rumoured to be developing TimeSplitters 4 for next-gen consoles, using DirectX 11 as a benchmark.
It's tantalising to imagine games with visuals on a par with the Samaritan demo, or indeed Avatar, but for Rein the PS3 and Xbox 360 still have much to offer.
"In terms of something aimed at running Samaritan, I don't think it would be practical to come out with a new console at that spec right now," Rein continues, "I think we're a few years away from that kind of hardware being available at a price consumers would embrace.
"Plus I think we're still getting great value out of the consoles we have today and we can continue to hone our skills with those for a few more years. If you look at Gears of War 3 you'll see that we're continuously getting better and better at making games for the consoles we have now and you simply have to look at the monthly Unreal Development Kit releases to see we're constantly delivering better and better tools and technology for this generation as well."
For Marvin Donald, game director at Darksiders II developer Vigil, however, developers do want to move onto next-generation development. "[That desire] just happened," he says. "Now we've got comfortable. We run into situations where we'd love to use bigger textures. We'd love to have more memory, and we'd love stuff to run faster. We're ready to grow. We're definitely ready to move on.
"But that's just starting to happen for us as a studio, where we want more horsepower to play with. So yeah, next generation, bring it on. We're very excited about that."
US retailer giant GameStop last week said it does not expect new consoles from Sony or Microsoft until 2014.
"2013? I think that's about right, actually," Donald offers. "That sounds about right, because another year-and-a-half and from the consumer point of view it's going to start to feel stale.
"It's like, OK guys, I'm no longer impressed by the graphics. My friend's PC, games like Rage, some of the stuff they're doing, oh my God. Seriously, clearly my Xbox can't do that."
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Comments (104) Latest comment 10 months ago
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snoooooo-zerrrrrrrs
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Well said.
Whilst graphics whores can get all hot and sweaty over textures, lighting and the like, I can only hope that gameplay benefits. I doubt it though as all the power will go into graphics.
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Part of me is excited by the possibility of being wowed by the capabilities of new hardware, but exploiting that inevitably means higher development costs.
Games are already too expensive [not that I can't afford them - but I want a greater variety of gaming, not to buy one game and play it for weeks to try to justify the cost], and that needs to come down to get wider mass acceptance.
Companies are forever complaining about piracy and second hand sales. Yet people will spend a fortune in tiny amounts, and much less if you try to take it all in one big hit. The trend of more expansive - and more expensive - games is just driving people exactly where the market doesn't want them to go.
And all I see in this talk of next generation consoles is compounding that problem, not addressing it.
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Real time body tracking in a 3d VR environment and speech recognition? Bring it on.
Sitting in front of a tv holding a plastic pad at ever higher resolutions just isn't doing it for me. Game development is already way too expensive, too conservative and concentrated on the triple A titles. This will only exacerbate the problem.
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Yes, cut scenes.
God Of War 2 had incredible cut scenes in 2007. Of course it's possible.
I for one would love to see cut scenes consigned to history
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The user base will be so small at the beginning almost ever game will still be for 360 and PS3.
What to be scared of?
God of War 2 came out in 2007 march way after PS3 and 360 had launched.
You current Gen console lovers will have plenty of Badass games to play.
Why are you guys against this you still represent the majority.
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That said, bad graphics performance bugs the hell out of me... So I guess bring on the next gen - but then take it easy for ten years, ok?
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Product keys for games??? Console locked discs you cant play on other consoles other the the one it was first played on? Games like shooters shipping with two versions, one with SP only another with MP only but both fully priced?
This gen as many great games as it has had, has also introduced many bad practices from game companies. Has made me less enthusiatic about next gen.
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It hasn't been upgraded yet?
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As for the claims of Avatar quality visuals made by AMD; sorry but I do not buy that at all. Even a high-end PC would not be capable of those kind of visuals in real-time as a game (nevermind in 3D) as they were rendered using dozens of expensive supercomputers and took years to produce. Toy Story came out in the mid-1990s and even now the current technology still isn't powerful enough to render that exact quality of graphics in real-time so why on earth would anyone believe Avatar quality visuals are possible in the next three years when the new consoles are due to arrive? It is just not going to happen any time soon and certainly not in 3D, not even on the PC. Console tech is limited by costs and what can be crammed into a small box with restricted power consumption whereas PC tech is not. I can see why developers and manufacturers are keen to pile on the hype as it creates interest, excitement and eventual sales for the consoles but it also leads to realisation and eventual disappointment when those claims are not met. Remember how the PS3 was supposed to be TrueHD 1080p for its games and how Microsoft promised jaggies would be a thing of the past, neither of which turned out to be true.
Me, I expect the next Xbox and PS to deliver the quality of graphics my current quad-core NVIDIA GTX 580 equipped PC can deliver at 1080p when properly stressed and nothing more. That in itself would be an impressive achievement given it has to fit into a small box.
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Besides, the XB360/PS3 can easily co-exist with the next console for a year or two.
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Between 4-8GB shared would make it a MONSTER!
A 720p, USB3 Kinect with on board processing, capable of finger recognition, and hand controls that improve on the PSmove would be ideal as peripherals.
1080p/60 visuals, with 3D HDMI 1.4 capability also...
2014 would give them time to implement such a feature set without a ridiculous price to go with it.
They'll end up cutting back if they rush it out, and then there's no chance of me buying for 2-3 years anyway.
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while my good friend Gameplay has been dying for years
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The same thing is going to happen all over again. For the sake of shiny screenshots, we'll have apocalyptically pretty games, which suck all the power of the consoles into resolutions and definitions and blah blah tech nonsense, and we will, as others have already said, *still* have things like Assassins Creed games where the enemies politely wait in a group for you to attack them, and dullard FPS enemies who haven't managed to crawl back up the hill to the level they were at in Half Life (1), let alone procedurally consider flanking, grenade-flushing or considerations of cover.
Games developers are still going to be making enemies crouch behind explosive barrels for cover, sadly. If your experience of gaming is heightened only by the prospect of very detailed explosions eviscerating highly detailed character models, I suppose the next generation can't come quickly enough. I, personally, can wait for whatever iteration of Grand Theft Auto has cars with a bazillion polygons each, which *still* disappear when you turn the other way, and are *still* limited to having a dozen or so on screen.
That's not to say I don't want to see another generation of console graphics, and as Darren says, this will free PCs to progress beyond that level of fidelity. I'm just a bit depressed at the prospect of other, important areas of gameplay being swept aside in the rush for the shiny.
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It's like Toy Story all over. People have to look what the companies say instead of mindless bashing of what is possible and what is not. Sony never said PS2 could show Toy Story graphics in realtime. They simply said "The console is powerful enough to show the same level of graphics as a Toy Story character. There you have it. One character. What they say is "We can render one Toy Story character on the screen in realtime with a black background". What people make of it (and that's of course because companies want them to think like that) is "PS2 can do Toy Story in realtime". Or "Xbox can do Avatar in realtime".
Another thing: People seem to think "OMG, game development is already so expensive, with such a high polygon count it will be even more expensive, we will not get a new generation that is really powerful". Well, you're wrong. In fact game development will be cheaper. The reason why movies are so expensive is mainly due to animation. That's something where we won't see a huge difference compared to the current gen, because it's simply way too expensive to change. Today we create high polygon versions of stuff, we create high resolution textures, only to create normal maps and low resolution meshes and put it all back together. In racing games we have to create a high poly car for closeups, one medium sized car for distances and one low poly version for when it's really far away. And it's actually harder and more expensive to create the low poly versions than the high poly versions because you have to make assumptions on what can be seen and what can't be and create the best thing with that in mind, where for the high poly version it's more like "Hey, I have another 50k polygons to spend, let's make 3D screws for the lincense plate". A vastly more powerful console would get rid of all the costly ways we use nowadays to get the impression that current gen consoles have more power than they actually have. It's all about illusions. With the need of LoD gone we would actually save a lot of time and money compared to right now. Of course that will change after some years, when you'll have to start going back to LoD once again to make graphics appear better and better each year.
Same thing goes for textures. They are already created in highres and then converted to what you actually see. Because the higher the resolution of the original texture, the better the downsampled ingame version.
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Except technological advances usually enhance gameplay possibilities. It's corporate business models that hamper gameplay innovation.
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while my good friend Gameplay has been dying for years
I'd have to disagree, I've played an awful lot of games on 3DS, 360 (Kinect), PS3, Android and iPhone this year. Gameplay certainly isn't a problem.
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Am I the only one?
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Blasphemy! Burn the heretic!
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I honestly don't think there are any games which have absolutely used 100% of the potential power of the 360 or PS3 yet, just look at how some of the last PS2 games were on a different level to what we'd been seeing.
Perhaps through by 2013/4 I'll be happy to buy a new Xbox.
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Okay, under normal circumstances YES, we'd be seeing a proper next gen by now. But we haven't, all we have is rumour and speculation and tech demos running on rigs that cost thousands as something to look forward to. Honestly, the gaming world is like an addict, who has become so used to the wait he can't wait any longer so they get demanding and needy and angry at anyone who doesn't understand their desperate need for a new technology fix.
Most PC tech isn't being used to max capacity. Consoles are in a rut. We're seeing the rise and apparent fall of 3D. We have two new handhelds this year - one already out, one on the way. We have new gaming markets opening up, and developers in a state of flux.
Into all the chaos right now - not least that Microsoft and Sony are pushing different angles right now - you honestly think they'll put a new console into the mix - especially one in which we know would be a re-jig of the current ones we have?
Really - you guys can't wait a few more years for the tech demo technology to drop in price and give us a proper leap forward? I'd suggest getting some help. That's an addiction and it's not healthy...
edit; Even sadder people are so desperate for a next-gen they'll neg anyone who says otherwise... which is another reason why we shouldn't have one.
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It will guaranteed not be more than 2GB system memory it that. And it will actually be plenty. A console doesn't have to run a memory hungry OS or heavi APIs. The programmers can code directly to the hardware. This is also why a console with similar specs to a PC will vastly outperform the PC.
So we will probably see next generation consoles with 2GB ram (which can be shared with the GPU) and a quad core CPU or something like that. And it will be able to produce stupendous visuals. And yes, som games will be in 60fps and some won't (all will probably be 1080p though). The day when all games are running 60fps is a VERY long time away. If it will ever happen. If you can make a game look prettier by allocating ressources to something else instead of frame rate then it will happen. And most consumers would prefer that trade off.
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But for the price why not stick 3/4/6GB in there for 'unforseen circumstances' ?
At some point after release even the 720/PS4/whatever WILL hit another ceiling & people will be crying "Why didn't they use 3GB instead of 2GB RAM?" - If they really do want 10yr lifecycles then go overboard on the HW to start with to build in a bit of a reserve, hell the things will cost a fortune anyway so what's another £10 for a couple of extra GB?
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Sadly they always want to push the hardware to create the best visuals but always at the expense of smoothness in gameplay. So even if they can create amazing visuals at 60fps, some idiot will push for even nicer visuals, stick to 25fps or thereabouts.. not good enough.
As others have said, they NEED to shove tons of RAM in the next gen of consoles. That will massively help, and is really a pretty cheap option in the long run considering the life of a console and the speed at which RAM costs lower. They always scrounge on this for initial price point then it hangs as a deficiency over the whole life of the console.
I do look forward to the next gen, as hopefully we will see nice smooth full HD graphics and no jaggies in sight anywhere. Otherwise what is the point and why should I be impressed with my £300 new console purchase?!
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Indeed, I fear with the costs involved (and the costs have risen sharply), we're kind of at a point where we need to ask the very obvious question - what would WE get from a next-gen console in 2012? That's not being selfish - we're consumers, we have every right to ask that question.
What we'd get is largely more of the same - maybe a LITTLE more horsepower, a little more memory available. This will improve our graphics by... oh wait, not much. We may see less jaggies. We MIGHT see some true HD output being done. But good news everyone, the load times would be a whole three or four seconds shorter possibly! WOW!
Except, for ostensibly another £400-£500, I'd expect considerably more than that. Why the industry would ever consider forcefully pushing a next-gen is beyond my comprehension really - you'd think they'd all be glad that they have a few more years to work on current stuff and stash some money away for the inevitable increase that a true next-gen would imply. But no, some of them want it now.
And oddly, it tends to be those who have middleware and technological solutions to offer to the industry. It's a bit funny that, wouldn't you say? That they want this next-gen to happen and it just so happens they have things ready for people to use... at a price.
It's not a natural time for a next-gen. We'll know it when it arrives. But just because we've always had some timed cycle in the past... it doesn't mean we should unceremoniously force out another generation just because "we've always done it at this time". I look forward to games that look like the Epic demo - I want that game. I so do. But I can wait for it.
We've seen the future. It's shiny and pretty. But don't get confused - the future is not the now. The industry has its own issues right now. It's got a lot of problems. It's got a lot to answer for, and a lot more to give. Give this generation a little more time... it's not grown as fast, but wasn't that the whole point?
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I am sure we will scoff at the next gen when they have been out for a while and have a lilttle laugh at the Promise of AVATAR graphics when the reality is very different.
I am still trying to connect 36 PS2's together so I can use them to power my Home-Made Missile Defence network lol
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With the guaranteed inclusion of an HDD developers can make "persistent worlds".
The next Xbox should aim for 1080p @ 60Hz in all games and leave SONY to waste its time on gimmicky 3D.
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With the guaranteed inclusion of an HDD developers can make "persistent worlds".
The next Xbox should aim for 1080p @ 60Hz in all games and leave SONY to waste its time on gimmicky 3D.
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And it wont cost 600$ becose sony ,i hope, learnd their lesson not to put exotic componets in a console, like the cell and bluray who were the main reason for 600$ price tag.
I see ppl say "well next gen consoles cant have highend hardware becose it will cost 1000$" thats not true , they dont buy retail componets and stuff them in a box like you would with a PC, they buy them at factory price for example RSX(ps3 gfx chip a modified Gforce 7800) costed 70-80$ to make, but if you buy a retail 7800 you had
to pay around 400-500$ in 2005.
Any why you pc only users think a todays 2011 highend pc componets will be in a 2014 console, they always had top hardware in new consoles it was always like this, ps1 in 94" , N64 in 95" ,Dreamcast in 98",Ps2 in 00", GC and Xbox in 01", 360 in 05" and ps3 in06", remember how pc games looked comparen to console games in those years.
AND!thanks to pc constant evolving we have new consoles , otherwise we would be in Ps2 stage of hardware today, or Dreamcast.
@Kami well they say" oh development cost have risen this gen "
by 20% i think compared to last gen, BUT they dont say "we launch the 1st half of the game for 60$, then a few weeks later or the same day ,we sell you the 2nd half piece by piece, and some useless stuff for those who have to get it all and if you sell the game the new owner will need to pay the pass in order to play the game online. /cry pooor us
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Consoles are meant to be a cheaper gaming option but with 6 360's and 2 ps3's , failed move,, Nav, xbox cams and other hardware etc I will probably not get a new console on launch day, that's unusual for me
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:'D
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A good pc solves this of course, but that doesn't run all the games I want to play.
I hope next gen has more focus on AI and performance instead of making the best screenshots.
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The gen has been almost 7 years long, we need new consoles.
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Oh! Yes, my system that is certain to have an onboard HD has all that stuff you just talked about. Protip: That'd involve way more platter spinning than we are capable of, and I doubt they'd want to push flash memory considering the huuuuge problems with it.
This whole next gen deal seems fairly stupid to me. I'm perfectly happy with my PC's graphics already, and its only a slight bump above current consoles. I don't mind being wowed, but I don't see a need for super-fancy graphics. I'd like intelligent enemy AI, maybe some realistic bullet modelling(a la the STALKER games. Lots of fun trying to use that hilarious soviet silenced rifle to snipe people, its like shooting artillery), and of course physics. Good physics wow me more than good graphics - seeing things come apart puts you in the game more than 1080p.
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Except technological advances usually enhance gameplay possibilities. It's corporate business models that hamper gameplay innovation.
Actually you should also include gamers as well. People keep talking about they want innovation but when something innovating occurs, the sales usually are pretty low. Making games is a business and doing something different and not seeing the results is costly. Innovation is probably best experienced with the Indie who is not looking at huge profits which is great. They can experiment more and if sales tank it doesn't tank their studio.
Gamers get the games they want today because that's what they are willing to pay for. Even when a game is 10 bucks you see a lot of crying if the gameplay isn't something easily recognizable.
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Long-term, yes, it will get cheaper per unit of capacity, but the console manufacturers are unlikely to risk having to increase the price of the console at any point in it's life cycle.
This is why consoles are usually stingy on RAM, and this next generation will not be any different.
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"He had this crazy idea about........breeding pine trees. "
OFF-TOPIC: Your comment (and the +s you got) made me think just how influential BTTF has been, so much so that, even 26 years after its release, most people still remember almost all of the dialogues, jokes, punchlines and situations.
Eric Stoltz must have slapped himself thousands of times over the years for losing the starring role.
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That's not the fault of the technology we have, more that the landscape has made middleware solutions so much more viable. Couple this with consumer attitudes which play somewhat safe and you probably will end up with a lot of games using the same old mechanics - everyone wants a slice of the pie that WoW has, or COD, or Gears of War, or Uncharted.
Pushing a next-gen isn't going to magically solve this problem - indeed, the ones so eager to push new technology through are those who have vested interests in it - either they are funded by tech makers, or they have middleware solutions for it and so forth. Indeed, if we push a next-gen now, the problem of identikit games trying to grab the same userbase will get worse, rather than better. The costs will go up, the development time will go up, and something has to give in the end.
The reason people like me are happy to wait is - we could have a good few more years with this tech, and we may see some gems in the process. This generation has been more about creating new experiences rather than pushing new tech - Nintendo won that round soundly, and Sony and Microsoft are playing catchup. Nintendo have joined in now - so what is to say there couldn't be another six years of this generation left? Nintendo have joined in largely as Microsoft and Sony are pushing their own agendas with their machines - that's not a surprise. It's just everyone has met back in the middle more or less.
A next-gen will come when there really is a cost-effective and urgent need for it. That a lot of consumers are perfectly happy with what they have right now is probably as good an argument as any to not rush this - the current crop are still rather pricey at £200-£300 with all the parts (Wii obviously excluded). If people are okay with what they have - let's hope the developers can find good stuff to do with the tech we have now!
We should all just relax. I have no doubt they are working on proper next-gen consoles now... but I can't see them being here for a few years yet.
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@technotica,
moron, there are pc out their that is capable of dx11 and beyond they're called servers and workstation you know used to make cgi style movies.
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Tell you what, developers! Make games with worse graphics and better and longer gameplay
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Why is it bull? Let's not forget the NES was only taken out of production a few years ago - that console had over two decades worth of time invested into it. And it's been fairly recently that the sales of PS3 and 360 have started to rise and take hold, whilst the Wii has done what it set out to do - throw a curveball. Sony and Microsoft had to differentiate - Nintendo now jump into the current gen with their own take. All seems set for a few years yet.
As I said, more power isn't going to give us more games - actually, it's going to do the exact opposite. You will see maybe more indie games, but less high-end commercial ones because the costs will be too high. And because the costs are high, the risks are huge - so they won't take creative risks, meaning what you get from more graphics and power is largely more of what we have seen in this generation - more Halo, more Gears of War, more CoD, more Uncharted etc. The big sellers this generation will be sequelled, and many other studios will break away and likely end up on the indie scene.
The hype machine is working because those pushing it have vested interests - it is in their own financial interests to push it on, and f**k the creative side and f**k the consumer and f**k the industry as hard as is allowable - so push it they will. And you can argue all you want, the simple truth is - Epic have a new game engine to push. So duh, of course they want a next-gen because they can't sell that to new devs until we have wind of a next-gen, can they? Why pay the licencing costs for an engine that won't be commercially viable for five years? Same with iD I think - Carmack talks about their inner workings, so no doubt they too have some middleware solution to sell to the industry as soon as a next-gen is confirmed.
The thing is, did we not learn ANYTHING from the success the Wii had? How about the DS vs PSP? Seriously, when will we learn that power isn't what drives the market - Nintendo showed it's offering consumers what they want and stuff that intrigues them, over raw gaming horsepower, that clinches it. The Wii selling nearly twice as much as 360 and PS3 should have been a wake up call to the industry that power simply isn't in the driving seat - consumers will go crazy over what many rather snobbishly called a last-gen console with a wavey wand. The PS2 even sold despite being the weaker machine on the market. PS1 same deal. Handheld market - that's the story of nearly three decades of Nintendo dominance.
These people may work in the industry, but they clearly have their heads somewhere else because they can't see the wood from the trees. Anyone with half an ounce of sense would see what has happened the past few years and really take stock. Instead, it's more Jeremy Clarkson "POWEEEEEEEEEEEEEERRRRRRRRRRRRRRR!" yelling. And hell, even Clarkson stopped doing that all the time and has been sensible of late *gasp*.
Eventually, we have to accept we've reached a cap. There will be a point where we can go no further, and we'll look back at a road littered with studios, companies, consoles and entire genres which were abandoned for not being commercial enough to make money. And we will have to ask ourselves if the rush to reach that threshold has been worth the cost - financially, economically, creatively.
I fear it won't be worth it... and that's why I think we need to not go forward with a next gen but go sideways and explore what we have a little more first. The technology can wait and get cheaper. It's not going anywhere... but many studios will if we're intent on straining their finances with a completely unnecessary next-gen.
The reason people want a next-gen is because some people want the status of being "first" again. Look at me, I have more money than sense. I have one launch game which is essentially a three-hour tech demo and there's bugger all coming for it in the first year. Aren't I special?
Yes, you are special... but not entirely in the way you want it to mean.
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There is no doubt that the graphics will be somewhat prettier, but if such incremental improvements in graphics where that important to the average gamer, we would all be playing on P.C.s. Look at the present situation. the PS3 is much more powerful than the Xbox and capable of displaying superior graphics, but rarely does. And the Xbox is doing okay. Why? Most gamers do not know, or do not care, that the majority of games that they are playing run at 720p, rather than 1080p. Why should they care about, slightly better shaders, textures or more anti-aliasing?
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