Are Console Games Dying?

"For me it's about growing the pie," Gears of War franchise boss Rod Fergusson says. "Am I going to give up my triple-A blockbuster console moment to go play Angry Birds? Probably not. But will I play Angry Birds while I'm on the aeroplane? Sure.

"At the end of the day, I still want to have that triple-A experience. When DVDs came out they said the theatres would close. Just because another form shows up it doesn't mean you have to instantly kill the previous form. Those are unique types of experiences people still want.

"I still want to sit in front of my 60-inch TV and have a deep, immersive, high-quality experience. I don't want every game experience to be in my hand at a bus stop."

It's easy to view the gaming landscape and judge it. It's a case of them versus us, casual versus hardcore, 50 pence versus 50 quid, Apple versus Nintendo. But it doesn't have to be like that. Indeed for Fergusson, this hardcore/casual split can, eventually, help games such as Gears of War.

"It's a great training ground for people who will hopefully come to my game," he says. "If I can get my mum playing Angry Birds and my wife playing Words With Friends, they're more in tune with games and gaming culture and the value of it. So I look forward to those types of games continuing to broaden the market and make more gamers."

Ben Murch worked at Criterion on Burnout Paradise and Codemasters on shooter Bodycount before, last summer, joining forces with a few fellow Guildford-based developer chums to pack home console development in for work on Apple's shiny mobile platforms.

"We've had some fan mail, people saying they've stopped playing on their Xboxes."

The result is Rodeo Games and Hunters: Episode One, a deep turn-based strategy game for iOS devices. Murch's tale is a common one - more and more developers are striking out on their own, leaving big studios behind to focus on smaller, self-published projects.

"We just wanted to give gamers an option," Murch explains. "Rather than playing on your Xbox at home, pick up your iPad and have a little play.

"We've had some fan mail, people saying they've stopped playing on their Xboxes and they're playing Hunters instead. That's the best thing you can hear as a developer."

Does this mean console games are dying? For Murch, who has had experience on both sides and picked one, the answer is no. But he does believe a certain type of console game is dying.

"More accurately, something Cliff Bleszinski [Epic design director] said at GDC about middle-class games are dying, that's more viable," he says. "Games which are not triple-A titles and don't have $40-50 million production budgets behind them, they're not going to do well, and ultimately die off."

This, for EEDAR analyst Jesse Divnich, is the crux. "Simply put, traditional console markets and games are not dying," he says. "I've yet to see a Call of Duty or Grand Theft Auto substitute on any other platform, aside from PC (which has a host of its own problems as a platform).

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"There is a loyal and dedicated install base of over 200 million traditional console gamers in the world, gamers who are used to the flexibility and complexity of the traditional controls. Touch-screen controls do not offer the level of complexity needed for a traditional gaming experience.

"And I've yet to see a mobile or social game draw me in emotionally when compared to story-focused games such as Uncharted 2. Mobile games have a long way to go and I can certainly tell you that the iPad control scheme is not the solution."

"Dying is a pretty gross overstatement," adds analyst Michael Pachter. "Xbox 360 and PS3 software sales continue to grow slowly. Handheld and Wii software sales are in decline, likely because of the introduction (and ubiquity) of iPod, iPad and iPhone games like Angry Birds.

"Vesterbacka can claim to be the DS killer, but his games hardly pose a threat to God of War, Red Dead Redemption or Gears of War. Angry Birds is great, but not comparable to those.

"It's like McDonald's saying nobody will ever eat at a steakhouse again because McDonald's cheeseburgers are so successful. McDonald's and Rovio provide phenomenal value for the money, but fast food is fast food, whether real food or a video game."