Donald Trump, first orange US President Page 757

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  • Load_2.0 4 Sep 2017 14:57:20 25,774 posts
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    Skirlasvoud wrote:
    There are already enough mutterings of discontent.
    Source? Because I don't think there is.

    They'll get their asses handed to them should they invade S-Korea or China. Instead, they're like the tiny dog that barks and bites to seem more threatening than it is.
    Their airforce is limited and a lot of the machinery and vehicles are dated. But they have an army that is supposed to number over a million. They have chemical and biological weapons. 70 odd submarines and most worryingly one of the most advanced cyber warfare units in the world. Google Bureau 121.

    It would be a long drawn out conflict that would be devastating regionally but would have repercussions around the world.

    Edited by Load_2.0 at 14:59:30 04-09-2017
  • You-can-call-me-kal 4 Sep 2017 15:01:32 9,889 posts
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    If only there was some sort of Korean War we could use as a reference to see how successful one would be.

    Edited by You-can-call-me-kal at 15:01:45 04-09-2017
  • disusedgenius 4 Sep 2017 15:03:56 8,519 posts
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    Also, as everyone has found out in Afghanistan for the past few thousand years, it's really fucking hard to invade and hold mountain ranges against locals.
  • reddevil93 4 Sep 2017 15:07:02 13,799 posts
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    You-can-call-me-kal wrote:
    Don't get me wrong. Trump is without question dealing with this with all the skilled diplomacy of a tired toddler. But there's a chance this is the one time a day that a stopped clock is correct.
    The fact he hasn't even appointed an ambassador to SK indicates he hasn't even tried to go along the diplomatic route. He probably just wants to nuke them from orbit and has to be convinced not to by advisors.
  • You-can-call-me-kal 4 Sep 2017 15:08:06 9,889 posts
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    disusedgenius wrote:
    Also, as everyone has found out in Afghanistan for the past few thousand years, it's really fucking hard to invade and hold mountain ranges against locals.
    Pretty much every war since WW2 hasn't been officially 'won'. Ever since war stopped being about politely facing each other in neat lines and killing until someone wins, it's become decidedly difficult to actually declare a winner.

    The Korean War is officially still going. It never actually ended. It's just been cold for a really long time.
  • thelzdking 4 Sep 2017 15:40:02 6,353 posts
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    I doubt that North Korea are going to attack anyone. They know that to do so would amount to signing their own death warrant. China are enormously ambivalent towards NK: it acts as a useful buffer against South Korea and if the state were to collapse it would cause a refugee shitshow on their border, however NK is a massive thorn in China's side because of the way it conducts itself on the world stage plus it's essentially a money pit for them.

    We are a long way away from any kind of Third World War scenario. It's a bit scary more because of Trump than NK. NK are playing a game they have been playing for years: brinksmanship then back down when someone stumps up a load of aid. The worrying scenario is if Trump decides to attack NK which will result in South Korea being devastated and Seoul probably being completely obliterated. However I don't think that Trump would be that bloody-minded. Surely his generals would impress upon him the utter can of worms he'd be opening.

    Who knows what China would do in such a scenario? I'd wager that Western trade is probably far more important to them than a dysfunctional kleptocracy as a buffer, but they would be pretty much honour-bound to support their long-time allies. Perhaps China would unofficially annex NK and China-ify it? This is all pure supposition.

    Like Skirlasvoud said it's a waiting game.

    For what it's worth there are reports that whilst Kim has been ramping up the rhetoric and purging folk from the party that he has also been quietly implementing some more liberal economic policies:

    https://www.economist.com/news/asia/21645252-tantalising-signs-change-are-emerging-whether-they-signal-more-profound-shifts-less

    https://www.ft.com/content/db738fb8-3ed2-11e7-82b6-896b95f30f58

    Whether these supposed changes are a result of a genuine political desire for economic liberalisation or a continuation of the pragmatic changes that happened during the post-famine years is an open question. We all know that NK, and especially its politics are rather opaque.


    TL;DR - Trump is less predictable than the Norks.
  • Skirlasvoud 4 Sep 2017 15:44:57 2,940 posts
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    @Load_2.0

    Load_2.0 wrote:
    Skirlasvoud wrote:
    There are already enough mutterings of discontent.
    Source? Because I don't think there is.
    BBC documentaries. I WILL look them up and link them if you want proof (though I'd rather not do my homework again of course ;-) Might do it anyway if I can find them on short notice). Might be Western Propaganda, but I tend to trust them.

    There are black markets around the border with China, dabbling in Western products, or people trying to escape. Also plenty of tiffs with law enforcements as the N-Koreans try to wrest away more personal freedoms.
    Outside of tight government control and the artifice thrown up by the Kim Government, the North Koreans are somewhat aware of the outside world and aware of their own situation.

    Depends how the two of us would define contentment of course, and I might be underestimating just how tight Kim's grip is, but I'd personally equate the situation with the USSR, slightly before the fall.
  • senso-ji 4 Sep 2017 15:46:48 8,073 posts
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    I'm not defending NK here but I don't think the presence of US bases in the South and Japan, and the continuing live fire military exercises can be sustainable if you want a peaceful resolution.

    At some point, especially if you want a unified Korea, the US will have to dismantle it's bases and leave the region to govern itself without the shadow of a superpower watching over it.
  • thelzdking 4 Sep 2017 15:48:24 6,353 posts
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    That'll happen when China reunify the peninsula and the US quietly leave in exchange for China forgetting the squllions of US debt it owns ;)
  • You-can-call-me-kal 4 Sep 2017 15:50:23 9,889 posts
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    Again, the Korean War never ended. There was no peace accord. No treaty. No terms. They've been in cold war for over 50 years now but that's why the US bases remain.
  • Load_2.0 4 Sep 2017 16:13:25 25,774 posts
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    I don't think it's a waiting game at all. 20 plus years of sanctions and they have continued to steadily develop a nuclear weapons programme. The Intel has always been shoddy but it's underestimated the progress made recently by a large margin.

    A waiting game simply accepts North Korea having a nuclear arsenal.
  • Skirlasvoud 4 Sep 2017 16:40:53 2,940 posts
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    There:

    It's not quite the well-made BBC documentary I saw earlier, but it comes close, with lots of the same footage used as there. Mind common biases and that the witnesses have a grudge.

    The regime is kept going by fear of America.


    Also:


    North Korea won't get that far in the long-run according to this. I hope my more in-depth channels will do one of their own. Binkov is pretty good.



    You are right though Load. That same documentary warns that the regime might be able to sustain itself indefinitely and the second one doesn't account for bio/chemical warfare and the cyber division.

    Again, it's a headache, but I still think that N-Korea has to either topple of its own accord through internal unrest, or that an outside military coalition will need to act with decisive strokes and with China's blessing to get rid of the Un dynasty. Anything in between plays into the regime fear mongering. "Just" Trump's rhetoric and threats have an averse effect.

    China has a stake in keeping North Korea around though...

    North Korea itself won't benefit from a war of aggression. It's basically game over if they're the ones to start something. Only problem is that they're allowed to make this "something" worse and worse the longer they're around. If that happens, only a collapse from within can prevent a devastating war.

    Edited by Skirlasvoud at 16:47:01 04-09-2017
  • DrStrangelove 4 Sep 2017 19:34:40 11,191 posts
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    It's unclear how to best deal with NK, the "expert" opinions contradicting each other. Some say diplomacy has completely failed, others say it's the only option, and I guess they both have their points. There's talk about being ever tougher, but how much tougher can you get if you can't just attack it?

    You could say the Obamic way of reaching out is lost on NK, and they could do whatever they wanted because they knew Obama wouldn't attack them. Superficially, an unpredictable hot-headed president Trump could have made them more careful, but the opposite happened: all over the world, Trump is increasingly shrugged off as a toothless blowhard, even a coward. He says he sends the fleet to NK and it goes to Australia instead. Stupid empty threats are the best thing that could have happened to NK propaganda and they're exploiting it with joy. So Trump definitely made it worse.

    Sometimes there are comments about trying to reach an agreement with NK by guaranteeing them that no regime change is intended. To be fair to the North Koreans, they know very well that it would be very stupid to do so, as our word is sadly worth almost nothing. Iran just learned that again, they just made agreements with Obama, and then Trump is elected and suddenly they're evil again despite fulfilling their part of the deal. Instead, one of Trump's first actions as president was a record arms deal with Iran's arch enemy Saudi Arabia. As if North Korea's distrust of America wasn't big enough already, Trump does everything to prove that they were right all along. If I was in their position, I'd also view nuclear threat as the only viable option.
  • mothercruncher 4 Sep 2017 19:47:15 14,101 posts
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    This article states that Trump has fucked it four ways by escalating thus far empty threats.
  • Mola_Ram 5 Sep 2017 00:33:07 16,334 posts
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    That's the thing. Very few (if any) would argue that previous administrations have had resoundingly successful policies towards NK. But at least the risk of conflict breaking out was low.

    You could maybe argue that we wouldn't be in this situation if we were tougher on them in the first place. But even back then there weren't any great military options, that didn't involve the potential deaths of millions of South Koreans.

    Then, as now, talking to them is the best option available. I hope the Americans realise that and don't do anything stupid.

    Edited by Mola_Ram at 00:48:06 05-09-2017
  • AaronTurner 5 Sep 2017 07:46:01 9,555 posts
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    I think the development of this situation is a massive failing of the Obama administration and the global community as a whole.

    I can't see what diplomacy will do, NK are on a hiding to nothing, nuclear power is the one thing that will bring equality on power. I don't see any reason why they wouldn't develop their capability to a maximum. In fact they've played an absolute blinder bleeding all the time and aid they need from the world whilst developing their weapons.
  • Mola_Ram 5 Sep 2017 08:00:57 16,334 posts
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    Ok, so what other good alternative is there aside from talking to them? Any military action has a strong likelihood of getting Seoul shelled into oblivion.
  • AaronTurner 5 Sep 2017 08:19:10 9,555 posts
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    I think there are probably no good solutions.
  • Mola_Ram 5 Sep 2017 08:21:01 16,334 posts
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    Correct. But the least-bad one involves talking to them.
  • nickthegun 5 Sep 2017 08:38:18 71,913 posts
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    It will come down to everyone capitulating. They knew they have a total cocksucker who can be goaded into anything on the hook, so they are just going to rattle Trumps cage until the international community says 'fine, whatever'.

    The only thing you can do is ignore the cunt and throw him a few pallets of rice every now and again.
  • Rodney 5 Sep 2017 08:50:50 3,279 posts
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    It might not be obvious what the least bad option is without hindsight - there's too many unknowns to really know now.

    If there is some miscalculation and NK launch a nuke then the current policy of diplomacy will be seen as a disaster. If the NK regime collapses or liberalises over time then the current policy of diplocamcy will be seen as a success.

    I tend to think it is unlikely NK will initiate any kind of meaningful attack because it would be suicide to do so - which inclines me to think diplomacy is the least bad option. But then, there's only so long the Korean Peninsula can sleep with the sword of Damocles above its head before someone fucks up.

    Edited by Rodney at 08:52:09 05-09-2017
  • You-can-call-me-kal 5 Sep 2017 09:27:51 9,889 posts
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    In other new Trump has ended DACA which stopped immigrant children being deported.
  • Psychotext 5 Sep 2017 09:39:08 62,015 posts
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    Immigrants who had to have jobs to be part of the program. 800,000 of them.

    MAGA!
  • Armoured_Bear 5 Sep 2017 09:51:46 20,466 posts
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    Psychotext wrote:
    Immigrants who had to have jobs to be part of the program. 800,000 of them.

    MAGA!
    Good, you can sent them back to where they came from. i.e. where their parents came from and where they only have spent the first few months of their lives and never been back since.
  • reddevil93 5 Sep 2017 17:01:20 13,799 posts
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    Russian politician saying they should "let's hit Trump with our Kompromat" on National TV. then asked if they have it "Of course we have it!"

    I wonder was one of Putin's demands to undo as much of Obama's work as possible. If so Trump's doing a great job.

    The DACA stuff being further indication of that, along with Paris Agreement, NATO stuff, Transgender military etc. Stuff that no other politicians would even consider.
  • PazJohnMitch 5 Sep 2017 17:36:48 12,989 posts
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    It is not Putin undoing Obama's work, it is the racist narcissistic who a black man made fun of.
  • Duffking 5 Sep 2017 17:50:56 14,855 posts
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    I'm fairly sure Trump undoing Obama shit is just Trump being angry that Obama made fun of him at dinner once
  • Tuffty 5 Sep 2017 19:01:10 4,022 posts
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    Would not be surprised to one day see Trump reveal the resurrected Osama Bin Laden, as another great, necessary repeal of one of Obama's achievements
  • H1ggyLTD 5 Sep 2017 19:01:53 7,721 posts
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    Duffking wrote:
    I'm fairly sure Trump undoing Obama shit is just Trump being angry that Obama made fun of him at dinner once
    It's obvious.
  • Skirlasvoud 5 Sep 2017 19:08:50 2,940 posts
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    Tuffty wrote:
    Would not be surprised to one day see Trump reveal the resurrected Osama Bin Laden, as another great, necessary repeal of one of Obama's achievements
    After which the restrained and manacled Zombie Bin Laden is summarily shot by Trump himself, in "an act of combating terrorism the likes of which the world has never seen. So much winning."

    That, or ZombinLaden is send in against North Korea somehow.

    Edited by Skirlasvoud at 19:11:28 05-09-2017
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