The Doomsday Argument Page 2

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  • ozthegweat 10 Oct 2013 11:14:45 238 posts
    Seen 1 hour ago
    Registered 3 years ago
    We're projecting from the present, which is why I don't think this is right.

    The argument goes like this:

    We're most likely in the middle 90%, so AT BEST the 100 billion humans that have lived so far are the first 5% and we just crossed over into the 90% group, so the total number is 100 billion/0.05=2 trillion.

    If you would have done the very same thought experiment and the dawn of humanity when there were only 100 humans who lived up to that point, you would have predicted that humanity goes extinct after 2000 humans.

    Assuming you would have done this thought experiment every year since the dawn of humanity (ain't nobody got time fo' dat!), you'd have been wrong a lot of times.

    But I'm planning on becoming immortal anyway, so I don't care ;-)
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