The Next Xbox will decide Microsoft's entire fate, and I'm not sure they even know it...

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  • The-Bodybuilder 5 Apr 2013 12:05:33 14,439 posts
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    I rarely, if ever, make a gaming thread, but this has been on my mind for while, especially after the recent fiasco.

    I'll be blunt; MS are at a crossroad, "The Innovator's Dilemna" by Christensen (great book) explains how new disruptive technology starts off small and outside of the big corps eye (even when they notice, they still deem it as not a threat....till it's too late). It's happened with every single industrt, and now it's Microsoft's turn with android the true threat to Windows (the natural progression is that android, much as I hate it, will "scale up" to fit productivity needs sooner or later).

    We all know W8, WP8 (which I own and love) aren't stopping things, and mobile is the threat to MS.
    And now MS are in a catch 20/20; they need a strong ecosystem to survive, but can't get the development support till sales grow, yet can't get the sales till dev support.

    That's why it was initially a smart move to try and "unify" all they have (whether we like metro or not is another topic). But how would this save them even though it isn't now? Simple, the xbox 720.
    If they do things right, the next xbox/durango doesn't even have to be the best selling console, but sales in the tens of millions instantly gives a new area of consumers for devs to develop for, thus enhance MS ecosystem, which would mean apps that can be shared across all their platforms, and sales. Their saving grace out of the quagmire they've found themselves in.

    Which is why it's so disheartening to see MS potentially f*cking it all up just because they are now obsessed with 2nd hand sales, along with the next xbox being driven by corporate suits rather than true visionaries, forgetting what got people into the xbox 360 in the first place; games.

    If MS f*ck this up, then they might as well kiss their future goodbye, because the durango is the strongest chance they have to get out of the corner they've found themselves in. The Durango now isn't just about helping the xbox division, but is fundamental to their entire future.
  • Deleted user 5 April 2013 12:15:01
    I think Microsoft are definitely at the end of a cycle.
  • mrpon 5 Apr 2013 12:17:41 29,567 posts
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    http://www.eurogamer.net/forum/thread/219260

    Give yourself £5 or ½ gig, you're worth it.

  • wayneh 5 Apr 2013 12:19:53 2,394 posts
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    I think it will be quite some time before MS are toppled from the throne. Business is notorious for not taking risks so it will be a long long time before any of the major corps start ditching Windows and Office in favour of anything else.

    Act like a dumbshit and they will treat you as an equal

  • glaeken 5 Apr 2013 12:20:53 11,266 posts
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    @The-Bodybuilder Have you thought of calling Microsoft? They may want to employ you as some sort of tech guru as I am sure these thoughts will never have occurred to them.
  • Deleted user 5 April 2013 12:21:01
    Ms are still the third largest company in the world and their operating system is still install on the majority of computers.
  • Deleted user 5 April 2013 12:23:21
    wayneh wrote:
    I think it will be quite some time before MS are toppled from the throne. Business is notorious for not taking risks so it will be a long long time before any of the major corps start ditching Windows and Office in favour of anything else.
    True, it's a while since I've had any exposure to a corporate lan, but at least modularising the different functions within has broken the monopoly.

    At least we have more common protocols now?

    Dunno.
  • wayneh 5 Apr 2013 12:25:32 2,394 posts
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    bitch_tits_zero_nine wrote:
    wayneh wrote:
    I think it will be quite some time before MS are toppled from the throne. Business is notorious for not taking risks so it will be a long long time before any of the major corps start ditching Windows and Office in favour of anything else.
    True, it's a while since I've had any exposure to a corporate lan, but at least modularising the different functions within has broken the monopoly.

    At least we have more common protocols now?

    Dunno.
    I'm not even going to try and pretend I understood that reply :)

    Act like a dumbshit and they will treat you as an equal

  • atomicjuicer 5 Apr 2013 12:27:44 309 posts
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    How will we play Xbox games when they turn the servers off? Maintenance, hacking, old age, lack of popularity, business needs etc will limit the lifespan of every game to publisher whims.
  • The-Bodybuilder 5 Apr 2013 12:31:06 14,439 posts
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    mrpon wrote:
    http://www.eurogamer.net/forum/thread/219260
    Yeah, I wanted to make a separate thread for the specific topic about Microsoft's future in general.

    Is that allowed? :-/
  • The-Bodybuilder 5 Apr 2013 12:32:45 14,439 posts
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    glaeken wrote:
    @The-Bodybuilder Have you thought of calling Microsoft? They may want to employ you as some sort of tech guru as I am sure these thoughts will never have occurred to them.
    Yeah, because big companies or empires never fall down.
    I'm sure someone at Intell said the same thing when ARM came around too.
  • Tonka 5 Apr 2013 12:33:49 21,352 posts
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    Two things I've learned that relates to this
    1) Things take much longer to happen than we think
    2) Even MS has some really really smart people working for them

    If you can read this you really need to fiddle with your forum settings.

  • Psychotext 5 Apr 2013 12:34:13 55,032 posts
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    Because Intel are in trouble? What are you smoking?
  • Deleted user 5 April 2013 12:34:49
    In life/sport/technology etc

    You rise and then you fall.

    Sony following the PS2 as a corporation became very arrogant and complacent. They messed up with the PS3 and underestimated the competition (xbox 360), they thought the PS3 would sell just by name alone. The PS4 so far looks promising, supposedly designed for games and now easy to code for, playstation plus is also the best thing ever. Sony now realise the Playstation brand is about games and are now starting to look after its customers.


    Nintendo to be quite frank are still aloof and on another planet. They bury their heads in the sand and plough their own field. Problem is the Wii-U which ever way you look at it is on rocky ground. Its struggling for sales against the 360 and PS3. It could get buried when the PS4 and xbox 720 come out.


    Microsoft have become arrogant the xbox brand is now established but they have become obsessed with the xbox becoming a multimedia device not a games console. The xbox dashboard is proof of this, adverts for music movies Netflix and a load of other shite. Designing a front end dashboard around a peripheral no one wants or has (looking at you Kinect) and the obsession with the xbox being a multimedia entertainment hub means they have taken their eye off the ball.


    I have no allegiance to any corporation I have owned the following consoles.

    Mastersystem
    Megadrive
    SNES
    Dreamcast
    PS2
    Xbox
    Gamecube
    Xbox360
    PS3


    One things for sure I aint gonna be an early adopter. My credit card usage on games has been stupid over the past 4 years buying stuff I never even played. So which ever console has the right price sweet spot and the best games is the one I'm gonna buy.
  • oceanmotion 5 Apr 2013 12:35:20 16,126 posts
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    If Microsoft can manage to get millions of people to pay for online play, I think they have a good shot at always on.

    Say what you want about cheap Gold sub prices but over the years, people are handing over hundreds on top of the console and games. Then you have tat like themes, pics, avatars.

    What makes Microsoft think they can't get away with more.
  • ZuluHero 5 Apr 2013 12:35:36 4,304 posts
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    But Kinect 2 - that's going to make gaming awesome, right?
  • The-Bodybuilder 5 Apr 2013 12:36:22 14,439 posts
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    Pepsipop wrote:
    Ms are still the third largest company in the world and their operating system is still install on the majority of computers.
    MS will never disappear, but I'm talking more of their relevance. They'll probably always be around. The fact that they've gone from 1st to 3rd is an indication as to what direction they're going.

    Windows and Office is their saving grace, but all evidence shows that mobile is taking over consumer and is slowly trying to creep into the productive space that MS dominates. Problem is MS are a distant 3rd in the mobile space, and what happens when the inevitable happens; when mobile overtakes desktop?

    As for Office, all that will happen (as it's already happening) is that other companies will just make suitable and similar alternative products to replace it.
  • The-Bodybuilder 5 Apr 2013 12:39:14 14,439 posts
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    Psychotext wrote:
    Because Intel are in trouble? What are you smoking?
    Sigh, I really don't understand why be are so antagonizing in this place.
    Intel are heading in a direction of trouble, and they know it. Funnily enough, Intel were in trouble once upon a time (heading into that direction), till they funnily enough asked the writer of the Innovator's dilemna to do a presentation for them.
    He basically showed everything I said previously, and in return, they began work on Celeron, which saved their asses.

    Now they're repeating the same mistake with ARM.
  • The-Bodybuilder 5 Apr 2013 12:40:29 14,439 posts
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    @espibara I do have an allegiance to sega though. :D

    But I fully agree.
  • The-Bodybuilder 5 Apr 2013 12:42:37 14,439 posts
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    oceanmotion wrote:
    If Microsoft can manage to get millions of people to pay for online play, I think they have a good shot at always on.

    Say what you want about cheap Gold sub prices but over the years, people are handing over hundreds on top of the console and games. Then you have tat like themes, pics, avatars.

    What makes Microsoft think they can't get away with more.
    I'll be the 1st to put my hands up and say I'm one of those people, sadly.
    MS got me via convenience. I simply couldn't be bothered to cancel (or when I did I re activated), or get a new ps3 or whatever. I'm guessing that's how they got many people, just like me.

    However convenience isn't a factor if I'm gonna purchase a new console, so how that will save them, I don't know.

    And this isn't just about the always online, it's their general attitude for the past 2 years and now.
  • Deleted user 5 April 2013 12:49:23
    Problem is microsoft state the next xbox has to be constantly connected the net.

    Then they charge you via a gold subscription to get the benefits of it being connected to the fucking net.

    Lets face it I love me 360 but I've never ever had to buy a console 3 times due to fucking reliability and shoddy internal design.

    Xbox 360 fans have cut Microsoft a big wedge of slack, but the buzz over the xbox 720 regarding DRM, 100% internet connection, subscription only benefits and multimedia/Kinect 2 focus is just pissing gamers off.
  • Psychotext 5 Apr 2013 12:50:47 55,032 posts
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    The-Bodybuilder wrote:
    Sigh, I really don't understand why be are so antagonizing in this place.
    Intel are heading in a direction of trouble, and they know it.
    I guess you should probably tell investors. Based on how solid their stock price has been it seems you're one of the only people who knows that they're heading into trouble.
  • Deleted user 5 April 2013 12:51:53
    wayneh wrote:
    bitch_tits_zero_nine wrote:
    wayneh wrote:
    I think it will be quite some time before MS are toppled from the throne. Business is notorious for not taking risks so it will be a long long time before any of the major corps start ditching Windows and Office in favour of anything else.
    True, it's a while since I've had any exposure to a corporate lan, but at least modularising the different functions within has broken the monopoly.

    At least we have more common protocols now?

    Dunno.
    I'm not even going to try and pretend I understood that reply :)

    Heh, my coms fail. I just meant that now if you're going to build a company network, shit like the dhcp server or the mail server don't have to be Microsoft even if parts of it are. Nothing really complicated.
  • Deleted user 5 April 2013 12:54:53
    ZuluHero wrote:
    But Kinect 2 - that's going to make gaming awesome, right?
    Its this forcing of Kinect onto future xbox owners which is really pissing me off.

    I'm a gamer I want a fucking controller in my hand. Not some laggy pseudo minority report gaming bullshit.
  • oceanmotion 5 Apr 2013 13:14:45 16,126 posts
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    The-Bodybuilder wrote:
    oceanmotion wrote:
    If Microsoft can manage to get millions of people to pay for online play, I think they have a good shot at always on.

    Say what you want about cheap Gold sub prices but over the years, people are handing over hundreds on top of the console and games. Then you have tat like themes, pics, avatars.

    What makes Microsoft think they can't get away with more.
    I'll be the 1st to put my hands up and say I'm one of those people, sadly.
    MS got me via convenience. I simply couldn't be bothered to cancel (or when I did I re activated), or get a new ps3 or whatever. I'm guessing that's how they got many people, just like me.

    However convenience isn't a factor if I'm gonna purchase a new console, so how that will save them, I don't know.

    And this isn't just about the always online, it's their general attitude for the past 2 years and now.
    They had me with the original Xbox and only sparsely with 360, don't think I even bought a 12 month card this generation. Doesn't have the same pull for me now. The odd short pass in a game or that time when you could stack £1 for 1 month glitch. So basically £7 compared to about £90 last gen when it was something unique and ahead of the competition by quite a margin.

    Anyway, MS are changing, all the hate Windows 8 and RT get, people don't seem to realise, they have to do this or roll over and die. They could have done it better but MS always fuck it up before getting anywhere. The all in approach may work or fail but they will still be around. I honestly don't see a world with Apple, Google and Linux being leading platforms over Windows. Mobile and tablets for now but early days. Laptops, desktop, buisnesses, no chance. Windows 8 is a bit mish mash but future Windows probably won't. Who would have thought Vista then Windows 7.
  • Deleted user 5 April 2013 13:18:42
    I wonder if they make more money from server or client side software sales?
  • Luvbeers 5 Apr 2013 13:19:54 918 posts
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    I think this is the last console generation as we know it. Everything will be between the internet and a flatscreen after that.
  • glaeken 5 Apr 2013 13:27:31 11,266 posts
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    espibara wrote:
    Problem is microsoft state the next xbox has to be constantly connected the net.

    The thing is what you don't know is the new Xbox rests in its own little hammock. This is for cooling reasons. And internally within Microsoft they are calling the Xbox hammock the net. So the constantly connected to the net statement is being misconstrued. The net will come in a variety of colours and there will be a special limited edition Halo themed net at launch.
  • captbirdseye 5 Apr 2013 13:28:28 5,466 posts
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    Intel have been solid for years now and have got over the problems of the past. You really can't compare Intel and AMD  as Intel have been whipping the floor with them for some time now and it doesn't look like changing. You sure your not talking about AMD?

    Edited by captbirdseye at 13:30:05 05-04-2013
  • JinTypeNoir 5 Apr 2013 13:33:37 4,392 posts
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    You know, you could say very similar things about Apple, Nintendo and Sony and posit some reason why one product is the key to their future. But the truth about this is that there always something we cannot see on the horizon. Unpredictable things happen. Whatever any company does now could be undone by another trend that comes from nowhere.

    That's why I haven't commented on the next Xbox yet. We'll see what the whole context for it is when it comes out. Not when it is announced -- that's just a case of controlled information finally flowing out after months of uncontrolled information -- but when it is released.

    To give you one example, when the 360 came out, that was right around the time Vista was coming out. Gates' involvement in the company was either waning or he had already completely bowed out by that point. People said that Nintendo was dead in the water. Sony was the one to beat. Apple was not even on anyone's radar. Whatever they planned for the 360 is quite irrelevant. It is what they did in the following 8 years that mattered.

    So pinning it all on the next Xbox right now seems short sighted.
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