Straw poll - Deal or No Deal shit

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  • Deleted user 13 December 2012 17:51:22
    Hypothetical situation for a college project, straw poll time needed.

    You're playing Deal or No Deal. You're avoiding staring into Noel Edmond's eyes lest he hypnotise you and take you back to his lair. There are two boxes left, a 1 penny box and a hundred grand. The banker calls with an offer.

    What, in monetary value, is your cut-off point for his deal? What would he have to offer to make you take a guaranteed sum over a 50/50 chance of winning nothing or winning everything?

    Also, is Noel Edmonds a Savile-in-waiting? Is that children's Christmas present thing he does now tinged with fear and doubt?
  • woodnotes 13 Dec 2012 17:53:42 4,922 posts
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    Anything over 1k I reckon. Well, I wouldn't gamble 1k of my own money for a 50/50 chance of winning 100k tbh.

    Edited by woodnotes at 17:53:51 13-12-2012
  • Deckard1 13 Dec 2012 17:56:04 27,262 posts
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    About 40 grand
  • RobTheBuilder 13 Dec 2012 17:59:35 6,521 posts
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    I'd say about 40k.
    Depends how much of a difference it would make to your life.
  • Kostabi 13 Dec 2012 18:15:23 4,878 posts
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    Go big or go home.

    I'd rather have a 100k than anything less.
  • sport 13 Dec 2012 18:21:58 12,584 posts
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    I'd replace the 100K for Edmond's head in a box.
  • elstoof 13 Dec 2012 18:24:53 6,643 posts
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    Fuck settling, reach for the stars. You don't lose by not winning, and is probably spunk the lot on drugs and tarts anyway.
  • elstoof 13 Dec 2012 18:27:10 6,643 posts
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    Is what I like to think I'd say, in reality I'd take the slightly under 50k they'd offer and bung it in a high interest account for my daughter.
  • localnotail 13 Dec 2012 18:28:18 23,093 posts
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    10K. I'd rather have 10K than not have 100K.

    A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.

  • RobTheBuilder 13 Dec 2012 18:29:44 6,521 posts
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    @Kostabi the sign (usually) that someone has enough money not to need it. For most people any offer over 20k would have such a fundamental impact on their lives as to make turning it down a very brave decision.
  • X201 13 Dec 2012 18:31:02 15,151 posts
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    meme, you're skewing the data. You're asking on a forum that is generally populated by well-off young chaps.

    Stand outside Iceland in Tipton and you'd get a different answer from a load of women.
  • elstoof 13 Dec 2012 18:32:21 6,643 posts
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    What impact would 20k make though? Not that much really. You won't be able to retire. Nor buy a home. You could have a couple of nice holidays, be mortgage free for a bit. You'll only end up spending the extra money on nonsense no doubt.

    It would be nice to be given gratis, not life changing though.

    So yeah, sod it. Go for the gamble.

    Edited by elstoof at 18:34:44 13-12-2012
  • Fatiguez 13 Dec 2012 18:34:10 8,707 posts
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    20k was the first number that came into my head
  • cubbymoore 13 Dec 2012 18:35:20 36,468 posts
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    If you've reached the point where you're at 1p and 100,000 you'll have turned down better offers than the one you'll be given now, so I'd almost certainly not deal by that point.
  • MrTomFTW Moderator 13 Dec 2012 18:37:13 37,388 posts
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    Fuck it, I came in to the game with nothing. Might as well bet the farm and say NO DEAL.

    Follow me on Twitter: @MrTom
    Voted by the community "Best mod" 2011, 2012 and 2013.

  • RobTheBuilder 13 Dec 2012 18:40:05 6,521 posts
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    @elstoof Seriously?

    If I won 20k it would allow me to pay off all my debts, which would save me about 160 quid a month that would otherwise be very difficult to pay off. And still leave me 10k to spend.

    For millions of people 20k would make a huge huge difference to their lives.

    Edited by RobTheBuilder at 18:41:37 13-12-2012
  • Dirtbox 13 Dec 2012 18:40:38 77,480 posts
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    I'd take the 1p AND BE GRATEFUL.

    +1 / Like / Tweet this post

  • Deleted user 13 December 2012 18:48:09
    Ta for the responses.

    You'd be interested to know that most people will say they have a set figure in mind usually around 30-40k, but on the show itself, 80% of people accept the deal in that situation no matter what it is, even if it's just a couple of thousand. All sorts of dastardly and devious psychological trickery going on in that show. Even the banker's figures leading up to the final round are designed to make people think there's a predictable logic to his machinations.
  • the_dudefather 13 Dec 2012 18:48:31 9,207 posts
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    Choose the option that merges all organic life with Noel Edmond

    (ง ͠ ͟ʖ ͡)

  • Kostabi 13 Dec 2012 18:52:02 4,878 posts
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    RobTheBuilder wrote:
    @Kostabi the sign (usually) that someone has enough money not to need it. For most people any offer over 20k would have such a fundamental impact on their lives as to make turning it down a very brave decision.
    I need all the money I can get, but on Deal or No Deal you arrive with nothing and at worse can leave with a penny. You're guaranteed to leave a winner, it just varies in scale.

    Plus there's that look of greed in people's eyes at the end of the show where you can tell they're thinking "this 20 grand is shit, if only I kept my box I'd be 100 grand better off". I'd rather gamble all the way to the end and take what was meant to be.
  • sport 13 Dec 2012 18:53:21 12,584 posts
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    The real kicker is if Noel asks whether you want to switch....uh oh....
  • graysonavich 13 Dec 2012 18:54:17 7,309 posts
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    Secret option 3!
  • macmurphy 13 Dec 2012 18:56:37 999 posts
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    Yeah, agreed with everyone else. Your expected value is 50k (and half a penny)if you take the punt and gamble. If you were a millionaire you shouldn't take an offer of anything less.

    Your offer entirely depends on your financial situation. If you are on the bones of your arse you might take as little as five grand if it means your house is about to be repossessed.

    Linked to this is your character, some people just couldn't give up the chance to gamble for 100k and would rather take the punt and lose it all than risk the chance of finding you had the 100k box but took 20k.

    In my flusher days I would have said not a penny under 35k but right now about 15k would be a sweet spot. I am massively brassic though.
  • elstoof 13 Dec 2012 18:57:09 6,643 posts
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    @RobTheBuilder

    I was talking to myself in the third person, but yeah seriously. It would just about cover my daughters nursery fees for a year, not really a game changer for me.

    But then I haven't gotten myself into debt I'm not able to manage, I'd probably accept enough to clear that if offered I suppose.

    Edited by elstoof at 19:00:30 13-12-2012
  • graysonavich 13 Dec 2012 19:12:40 7,309 posts
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    20k to send some cry box to play with crayons for a year?

    Srsly?
  • localnotail 13 Dec 2012 19:14:55 23,093 posts
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    If you'd asked me before I became a parent, I probably would've held out for more. Now I'm more practical. 10K in my pocket now and I wouldn't have to go back to work for another year, I could stay at home and play all day.

    A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.

  • elstoof 13 Dec 2012 19:20:59 6,643 posts
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    They're really good crayons though.
  • mal 13 Dec 2012 19:58:59 22,341 posts
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    For the purposes of your survey I'll split it down the middle. It's a 50/50 gamble for me, so the banker should match that. Although honestly I'd probably easily settle for anything over 40k - anything less and the banker's being cheeky and I'd have to think about it. But I don't want any future bankers reading that via your survey, so I'm sticking to 50k officially, like.

    Cubby didn't know how to turn off sigs!

  • ronuds 13 Dec 2012 20:02:34 21,788 posts
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    I'd swear not to take any less than 50k, but in reality I'd probably end up walking out of there with barely enough for a sandwich.
  • DFawkes 13 Dec 2012 21:20:33 22,619 posts
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    sport wrote:
    The real kicker is if Noel asks whether you want to switch....uh oh....
    I was thinking about this earlier - would the Maths behind the Monty Hall problem still hold up if you'd opened all those boxes?

    I don't think so, as you're the one opening the boxes - the Monty Hall problem has the host opening a losing door, instead of yourself. I think that means it's still just a straight 50/50 when you get that far. Happy to be proven wrong with science and stuff though.

    As for the amount I'd settle for, I'd never Deal as I quite like both - either a big loser in which case I can frame that penny, or go for the big prize. Weirdly, I'd feel totally different if it was the 1 and the 100,000, as the 1 isn't enough of a fail to risk it. In that case I'd probably go for anything that'd pay off my student loans. Yes, I know it makes no sense that I'd happily risk going away with a penny, but there's nothing I really need urgently ;)

    I'd kick the living daylights out of the producers of Tipping Point - Ghandi

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