You're right. I think I missed the $99 reward level from my calculation.
Surely the $95 and $99 rewards alone would net them $590,000, they have a couple more that would generate $200,000 each (the 20x 10,000 and 200x 1,337). Given they've got 3 backers for 10k I'd not write them off yet.
I highly doubt the Ouya people will reach their target with the current rewards in place. The $95 and above rewards would only generate around $550,000-max. So they're going to need to find around $400,000 from the unlimited rewards. That's a lot of money, and they'd have nothing worthwhile left to give away in exchange for that money. To put it another way, they'd need around 16,000 people to buy into the $25 reward. I don't see that happening.
Either way, best of luck to 'em, its the only Kickstarter so far which has managed to eke my money off me.
In that case, it's almost certainly going to get funded. And good luck to them, it looks like a really neat little system. I'm tempted to get one just to use as an XBMC box.
Edited by asha at 17:38:50 10-07-2012