What's America's problem? Page 132

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  • localnotail 10 Oct 2012 19:44:27 23,093 posts
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    A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.

  • Bremenacht 10 Oct 2012 20:02:14 17,608 posts
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    haha!
  • ChronoTravis 10 Oct 2012 21:28:57 145 posts
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    The national polls are not really what you need to look at in order to get an idea of who will win the election. It is really the state polls, since we have an electoral college system, and while Obama is still ahead in electoral votes according to recent polls, he has lost a LOT of ground. http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/2012/president/2012_elections_electoral_college_map.html#battlegrounds this map shows just how bad it is.

    Just before the first debate, Obama was 169 votes, that is 1 away from the 170 threshold to win, and he was leading in all of the tossup states. Even if it wasn't over the 5% mark needed to consider the states as leaning his way. The fact that he was consistently leading in these tossup states, means, that it wasn't a fluke, and he only needed to win over any one of them while retaining his safe states, to win in November. Now he has 217 votes according to the latest polling, and lost Wisconsin, Ohio, Pennsylvania and New Hampshire, which were all leaning his way before the debate, and are all tossups now.

    He still has a decent lead in some of them, like the traditionally liberal and democratic states like Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, and New Hampshire, but in most of them where he is leading, it is by less than 1%. In some states where he HAD the lead, it has now swung Romney's way, although it by less than 1% in most cases, but his loss of Ohio as a leaning Obama state, is a very bad thing, since it is worth 18 electoral points, and his tie in Florida isn't good either.

    My conclusion is that Obama absolutely cannot afford to lose another debate. He really needs to step up his game here, in a major way, or he will have completely dropped the ball on the huge lead he had going into the first debate.
  • oceanmotion 10 Oct 2012 21:33:38 15,650 posts
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    Not like that will be hard. Romney just lies and flip flops. Obama just has to call him on it and make his intentions clear for idiots who think someone talking louder is better.
  • ChronoTravis 10 Oct 2012 21:53:39 145 posts
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    I will say that even if you give Obama his leaning states + the states he has a lead in, even if it is not above the tossup threshold, he will win the election. Also, if you take away the states that he has less than a 4% lead in, he will still win the election, but not my much. He is still doing better than Romney overall, and on track to win, as things currently stand, but the fact that he lost so much ground after just one debate, is bad for him. If the trend continues like that in subsequent debates, then he will end up losing. He has time to step up, but not much time.
  • Bremenacht 10 Oct 2012 22:47:54 17,608 posts
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    I find it a bit incredible that these debates are so influential. Is there a substantial group of Americans who take their voting cue from these debates and no-where else?
  • Deleted user 10 October 2012 23:10:44
    A lot depends on how the election is shaping up. If it's a very close call, debates can be critical to snag the swing voters who are undecided.
  • Khanivor 10 Oct 2012 23:11:25 40,382 posts
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    The only polls that are worth looking at are the ones analysed by 538. Obama has taken a tumble in the electoral college but he's still well on favourite to win the election.

    Quite why Romney got such a huge bump after the debate is a bit of mystery. I suppose lots of folks are utterly credulous and believed his hard tack to the centre.

    The VP debate tomorrow night could be quite fun.
  • Bremenacht 10 Oct 2012 23:24:41 17,608 posts
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    Yeah - the VP one should be better. I might even watch it!
  • ChronoTravis 11 Oct 2012 14:42:17 145 posts
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    A lot of the polling data on that 538 site seems to be out of date, but I'll keep checking it out. In some more bad news for Obama, the latest polling data shows that Michigan is no longer a strong Obama state. A couple of weeks ago, he was somewhere around 10 points up in that state, and now he is 2.7, which is within the margin of error, meaning Michigan is now considered a 'tossup'. Michigan is traditionally a very strong blue state, owing to the size and power of its labor unions, so this is terrible news for Obama.
  • ecureuil 11 Oct 2012 14:47:00 76,495 posts
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    Are you a republican yourself or what?

    Obama is doing fine. Romney has got the biggest bump from a debate in US history. Ever. And he's still behind.
  • ChronoTravis 11 Oct 2012 14:51:27 145 posts
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    I am an independent. I am not saying these things, in order to make Romney look better, I am just being realistic. No-one can look at the free-fall Obama has been in since the debate, and see it as anything but really bad. Obama is ahead, but it is a very slight lead, and people can't sit back and be comfortable with it. I'm just trying to point out what is going on, so people realize that Obama CAN lose this election, if he does not kick a higher gear soon.
  • Mola_Ram 11 Oct 2012 15:36:13 6,960 posts
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    I want Obama to win, and still think he will. Difference between now and, say, last week is, last week I would have discounted any possibility of a Romney win. Whereas now I see it as possible. Still not likely, but possible.
  • dsmx 11 Oct 2012 17:16:32 7,555 posts
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    I remember a few years back now there was this flash thing some american news website had made that let you fiddle about with voter turnout and popularity ratings and the like so you could get a rough estimate on what was required for a republican or a democrat to win.

    Depending on which side of the fence you sit the good/bad news is that unless there's been a colossal change in voting habits since then the only way Romney can get in is if the voter turnout is low, say 25-30% anything more and the democrats win.

    "If we hit that bullseye the rest of the dominoes will fall like a a house of cards, checkmate." Zapp Brannigan

  • disusedgenius 11 Oct 2012 17:24:58 5,210 posts
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    It's probably worth waiting until at least the next debate, no? Part of me is crossing my fingers that Obama is playing political rope-a-dope.
  • ecureuil 11 Oct 2012 17:30:28 76,495 posts
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    Didn't John Kerry destroy Bush in the debates?
  • disusedgenius 11 Oct 2012 17:37:56 5,210 posts
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    Honestly I can't remember, I didn't care as much then as I do now. But it seemed to me that those two were a little more polarised than Obama/Romney who both seem to be trying to grab the undecided/central voters - in which case I can see the debates having a bigger impact.

    But then, that's spoken from a reasonable level of ignorance so feel free to correct.
  • grey_matters 11 Oct 2012 17:50:59 3,672 posts
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    ecureuil wrote:
    Didn't John Kerry destroy Bush in the debates?
    Yeah, pretty much. Except for one where it was later found that Bush was likely to have had a transmitter/earpiece guiding him around pitfalls. Nobody seemed to care, strangely enough. That Romney is gaining anything from these debates may be down to his stopping shooting himself in the foot at every single opportunity rather than beating Obama. I reckon people are just looking for someone to blame for anything that is wrong in their lives, and as there are a few problems, the president should take a hit, unless he is running against a moron who never stops reminding you of the kind of person that helped get the country into its current mess.
  • Khanivor 12 Oct 2012 02:57:29 40,382 posts
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    I almost feel sorry for Ryan :D
  • Toonster 12 Oct 2012 02:58:43 6,835 posts
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    Anyone watching the VP Debate? Biden is being a bit smirky/assholish but IMO definitely doing better than Ryan. He definitely has the balls Obama lacked in his first debate, and is calling out more of his opponent's lies on the spot.

    Edited by Toonster at 02:59:04 12-10-2012

    3DS: 0361-6951-2609 (Tom)

  • Mola_Ram 12 Oct 2012 03:20:14 6,960 posts
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    He really shouldn't smile and laugh like that when Ryan fibs. Makes him look condescending, which could affect the outcome of the debate even if he's right on substance.
  • Khanivor 12 Oct 2012 03:47:49 40,382 posts
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    I think he has the right to be condescending with Ryan as Ryan is beneath contempt.
  • ecureuil 12 Oct 2012 04:01:01 76,495 posts
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    Ryan has looked out of his depth. There's something about him that's not right, can't quite put my finger on it. He's a bit slimy.
  • Khanivor 12 Oct 2012 04:02:52 40,382 posts
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    His closing statement was a masterclass in insincerity. His face makes me glad I have two hands as, given the chance, once one tired from punching it the other would be there to keep going.
  • localnotail 12 Oct 2012 04:11:27 23,093 posts
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    That was better (from the Democrat point of view). Biden is still a gimp though.

    A strange game. The only winning move is not to play.

  • Mola_Ram 12 Oct 2012 04:21:34 6,960 posts
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    Khanivor wrote:
    I think he has the right to be condescending with Ryan as Ryan is beneath contempt.
    That may be so, but having the "right" to do something does not mean that doing it is necessarily a good idea.
  • Toonster 12 Oct 2012 04:24:08 6,835 posts
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    It was really hard to watch Ryan deliver his closing comments. He looked like he was talking to a group of preschoolers.

    3DS: 0361-6951-2609 (Tom)

  • Mola_Ram 12 Oct 2012 04:33:18 6,960 posts
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    Ryan did better than I thought he would, and Biden should have smirked a lot less, but overall it was a pretty convincing Biden win.

    It's the presidential debates that really matter, though, so hopefully Obama can improve on his last dismal performance.
  • Load_2.0 12 Oct 2012 09:47:49 18,890 posts
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    I love these soundbites. He is communist!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=2E87gciwebw
  • Tom_Servo 12 Oct 2012 11:20:40 17,319 posts
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    Load_2.0 wrote:
    I love these soundbites. He is communist!

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?feature=player_embedded&v=2E87gciwebw
    Haha! She really didn't have a fucking clue what she was talking about. I wish the presenter had pushed a little bit more, but it was already obvious that she wasn't able to actually answer anything properly.
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