This is starting to get a little scary Page 373

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  • Grax 16 Oct 2013 10:07:53 1,814 posts
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    The funny thing is I think China is probably going to be one of the worst effected. They are an export country with a lot of people working for low wages to allow companies to sell their products abroad for very little. I can't imagine that changing. Maybe I am wrong but if America goes down, wouldn't it take china and a lot of countries reliant on supplying their markets with them?
  • glaeken 16 Oct 2013 10:36:49 11,108 posts
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    I guess if America goes down some sort of new order of things would establish itself after a while. I don't think it's going to be a sudden thing though. More a slow decline.

    If it plays out like that I would imagine countries like China will slowly adjust to the shifting market.
  • mcmonkeyplc 16 Oct 2013 10:51:35 39,387 posts
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    LeoliansBro wrote:
    India have their own problems, chiefly that they're a corrupt and unwieldy conglomerate who cannot possibly reflect the needs of all of their people coherently (which at least they're trying to do, unlike China who solved the problem by ignoring 99% of their population).
    Oh I agree 100% Was more a tongue in cheek hope than a real one.

    I'd rather have India as a super power than China but that's not likely to happen for the reasons you state.

    Then again we all know what Gandhi does in Civ games so it's probably a good thing :)

    Come and get it cumslingers!

  • Deleted user 20 October 2013 09:30:37
    LeoliansBro wrote:
    India have their own problems, chiefly that they're a corrupt and unwieldy conglomerate who cannot possibly reflect the needs of all of their people coherently (which at least they're trying to do, unlike China who solved the problem by ignoring 99% of their population).
    Judging by social indicators, it is India which is ignoring 99% of the population:

    Infant Mortality:

    China: 16.5 (better than Mexico)
    India: 49.1 (worse than Iran)

    Life Expectancy (same source as above):

    China: 74.5 years (better than Brazil)
    India: 66.5 years (worse than Bangladesh).

    Another way of looking at it, is to consider when China attained India's current levels, as the following article does:

    What about educating the population? India’s Planning Commission data put the literacy rate at 74% in 2011 and there has undoubtedly been much improvement in recent years. But Sri Lanka had an 87% literacy rate in 1981, China had 78% in 1990, Indonesia had 82% in 1990, Vietnam 88% in 1989 and the Philippines 94% by 1990.
    Of course, Indians are not unaware of all this.

    Far from it:

    And to be fair to India:

    There are, of course, many failings of Indian democracy (which we have discussed in our writings), but there are big democratic achievements as well, and also the hindrances can be addressed through democratic battles to remove them. If China officially executes more people in a week than India has done since Independence (and this is true of a shockingly large number of weeks every year in China), this comparison, like many others involving legal and human rights of citizens, is not to India’s disadvantage.
  • Bremenacht 20 Oct 2013 13:42:12 17,614 posts
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    JP Morgan 'may pay record $13bn fine'

    It's an amazingly high fine. Wonder how much they made out of all that dumping? I remember them doing Bradford&Bingley in.
  • Moot_Point 20 Oct 2013 13:48:58 3,919 posts
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    Iirc, they were making that kind of profit each year between 2001-08. If everything in the documentary "Inside Job" is to be believed.

    ================================================================================

    mowgli wrote: I thought the 1 married the .2 and founded Islam?

  • oceanmotion 20 Oct 2013 13:53:25 15,665 posts
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    Anyone going to jail yet.
  • Moot_Point 20 Oct 2013 14:01:52 3,919 posts
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    Hahaha!

    Oh you're not joking? :o

    ================================================================================

    mowgli wrote: I thought the 1 married the .2 and founded Islam?

  • Deleted user 22 October 2013 07:44:20
    An interesting contrast:

  • Bremenacht 22 Oct 2013 09:10:05 17,614 posts
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    That's 'cos 'advanced' economies have their production facilities in emerging economies, no? I don't see what's so 'emerging' about S.Korea either. Or China. Or Poland. Etc.

    Seems to be rather contrived.

    Edited by Bremenacht at 09:10:28 22-10-2013
  • Deleted user 22 October 2013 09:44:22
    No need to get so worked up about words like 'advanced' and 'emerging': these are just used to differentiate between countries that were industrialized fifty years ago (like Japan) and countries that have industrialized more recently (like South Korea). Admittedly, it is open to question which category Poland falls into (was it still a predominantly agricultural country in 1963?).

    For me, what's most interesting is the chart, where one could designate four main categories of countries with regard to their response to the financial crisis:

    1) Der Wunderkind: China is in a class of its own, having doubled its industrial production over the period 2007-2013. It stands to reason that Beijing's policies may have something to do with this achievement and should be studied.

    2) Rising: Countries which have managed, despite everything, to increase their industrial production at a rate greater than the global average over the last six years. Favourable conditions? Correct Institutions? Good policies? Mere luck? Maybe a mix.

    3) Recovering: Countries like Germany and the US, which have returned to roughly the pre-crisis level of industrial production.

    4) Floundering: Countries whose industrial production is considerably (say >10%) below the pre-crisis level. A strong case can be made that they need a serious change of policy and/or institutions.

    That said, industrial production per capita statistics would be more useful as a guide to the relative performance of various economies.
  • LeoliansBro 22 Oct 2013 10:05:50 43,246 posts
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    Well, given their graph draws two lines based on what it calls 'advanced' and 'emerging' economics and bases its entire conclusion on the difference between the two I'd say Bremenacht is on the money.

    It's the equivalent of dividing the world into 'growing' and 'not growing' economies and then saying 'ZOMG LOOK HOW FASTER THE GROWING ECONOMIES ARE GROWING THAN THE NON GROWING ECONOMIES, ALSO ONE IS CHINA SO YOU CAN ALL NOD SAGELY.'

    Worthless.

    LB, you really are a massive geek.

  • LeoliansBro 22 Oct 2013 10:07:13 43,246 posts
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    Unless of course I've misread it and the green and red lines on the graph are not the same as the green and red bars on the chart, in which case ignore me (although that does make the whole thing opaque and confusing).

    LB, you really are a massive geek.

  • Dangerous_Dan 22 Oct 2013 10:20:25 2,380 posts
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    So Germany, with a very low unemployment rate, where everybody is talking about their strong industrial production are now producing -0.3% less than 2007 while the U.S. with a much higher unemployment rate than 2007, where everybody is bemoaning their increasing dependence on industrial imports from China are down just -0.6%.

    From that statistic, I'd conclude that both Germany and the U.S. have recovered well after the 07 downturn. All this, while the trade deficit between the U.S. and China was on a record high in 2012.

    So the U.S. is now importing more than ever from China, unemployment is higher, especially when it comes to the industrial workforce and at the same time, according to that statistic, the U.S. is only down -0.6% in industrial production, similar to Germany.

    I don't buy that.
  • Grax 22 Oct 2013 10:36:01 1,814 posts
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    @Endless
    people have studied China already, the reason they have such high production figures is they have inimal or no minimum wage or safety standards for employees so they pay them next to duck all. This means It is cheaper for 'advanced countries' to import for less then producing domestically.
  • Deleted user 22 October 2013 12:58:45

    So the U.S. is now importing more than ever from China, unemployment is higher, especially when it comes to the industrial workforce and at the same time, according to that statistic, the U.S. is only down -0.6% in industrial production, similar to Germany.
    The USA's population growth is considerably higher than Germany's - and that would account for both higher unemployment and higher imports from China with comparable performance in terms of industrial production.

    they have minimal or no minimum wage or safety standards for employees so they pay them next to duck all.
    China's wages are considerably higher than India's, and as for their safety record.. well, the Rana Plaza disaster didn't take place in China. That's not to deny that these factors play a role in China's performance - but I doubt they account for most, let alone all of it.

    ------------------------

    If you look closely at the graph above, you'll notice a divergence between the emerging and the advanced economies at the end of 2010/beginning of 2011. Up to that point in time, the two have the same experience (growth, slump, return to growth), but after that the emerging economies keep growing whilst the advanced ones stagnate.
  • Dangerous_Dan 22 Oct 2013 14:01:41 2,380 posts
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    The USA's population growth is considerably higher than Germany's - and that would account for both higher unemployment and higher imports from China with comparable performance in terms of industrial production.
    That could account for a part of it - I estimate that the population grew about 4-5% in that time span. Still, that would mean that the per capita industrial production declined. That's not surprising.

    Edited by Dangerous_Dan at 14:02:25 22-10-2013
  • mal 28 Oct 2013 00:52:39 22,341 posts
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    I was in Lidl earlier and an upper middle class woman wandered in and some mild amusement ensued - asking staff for all sorts of inappropriate stuff for a budget supermarket to stock, then getting all uppity that she couldn't use her credit card, then demanding to see the manager when told she had to not only pay for plastic bags, but pick them up herself as she queued to pay.

    Cubby didn't know how to turn off sigs!

  • Psychotext 28 Oct 2013 01:02:33 53,855 posts
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    It's strange, that no credit card thing only applies in certain Lidl stores. The three near me have no problem taking them.
  • mal 28 Oct 2013 01:06:20 22,341 posts
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    I'm guessing the machines were broken. I've seen people pay by card there in the past. Or perhaps she had something weird like American Express.

    Cubby didn't know how to turn off sigs!

  • Psychotext 28 Oct 2013 01:40:58 53,855 posts
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    There are definitely some that don't take credit cards. I had it happen to me in mid Wales.
  • Khanivor 28 Oct 2013 03:13:09 40,402 posts
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    Do they discount their prices to take into account they aren't paying merchant processing fees...?
  • mal 28 Oct 2013 04:07:20 22,341 posts
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    Yeah, I assume that's part of the reason they don't always take cards.

    Cubby didn't know how to turn off sigs!

  • Tom_Servo 14 Nov 2013 12:53:03 17,330 posts
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    FAO LB!

    This article has been doing the rounds, and I'd quite like your take since you understand this stuff.

    If all this is true, surely people would be genuinely outraged? Is it really the case that we've been fed nonsense since the coalition came to power and the country's finances actually weren't disastrous?

    It's almost too depressing to consider.
  • Mr_Sleep 14 Nov 2013 13:20:17 16,853 posts
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    The deficit was massively overblown and wasn't the major problem stemming from the recession. Austerity under this government has been in the service of ideology. Every recession in living memory, from what I know, has been recovered from when there is larger spending and growth. Growth is the only way out of recession.

    I think This is worth a listen. There's probably some points of argument against some of his opinions but it's certainly a good starting point.

    As he points out, paying off the deficit should be undertaken during the boom, not the recession and the countries that best avoided problems were those who did this, as opposed to the UK who just kept spending.

    Edited by Mr_Sleep at 13:24:10 14-11-2013

    You are a factory of sadness.

  • EMarkM 14 Nov 2013 13:32:42 3,173 posts
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    @Tom_Servo Interesting read; thanks for posting.
  • Chopsen 14 Nov 2013 13:32:53 15,727 posts
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    While yes Tory have blamed labour for leaving massive debts, I actually can't remember the words "biggest in developed world" being used. But that might be because my brain automatically filters out hyperbole from politicians these days.

    Edited by Chopsen at 13:33:36 14-11-2013
  • Tom_Servo 14 Nov 2013 13:37:06 17,330 posts
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    On a related note, Cameron makes reduced state spending a permanent goal.

    And yes, the picture is beyond parody.
  • mcmonkeyplc 14 Nov 2013 13:40:03 39,387 posts
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    The words debt and deficit were definitely interchanged far too much during the last general election.

    Our deficit was unsustainable not our debt. Our debt would've been unsustainable if we carried on having a deficit that large but pretty much common sense.

    Why did we have a massive deficit? WE BAILED OUT THE FUCKING BANKS.

    It wasn't rocket science then and it's not now but it was spun in a such a way that enough scared middle class types went running back to Tory wankers.

    Edited by mcmonkeyplc at 13:40:27 14-11-2013

    Come and get it cumslingers!

  • EMarkM 14 Nov 2013 13:40:24 3,173 posts
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    @Tom_Servo Could use more gold...

    Edited by EMarkM at 13:40:53 14-11-2013
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