It seems like a sensible, and well reasoned post, and probably, very close to Microsoft's real strategy, because it has a few risks they don't place much importance on.
The first risk, is underestimating the unification Google (with youtube) is providing, in the TV space for app enabled TVs, and the pace at which that is improving, and TVs getting more computationally powerful, to do more things.
The other obvious risk, I see, comes in the form of connection complexity. That problem hasn't really changed since the days of VCRs. If you need a TV shop to connect it up, for all but AV people and gamers, that puts consumers off, and you will get resistance from TV shops, if they are treading on TV companies toes.
More people now live on their own, and more of them want an all-in-one devices for simplicity and elegance. Internet TVs are getting really cheap, while getting good, things like, integrating Freeview HD (DVB-T2) recording, with just the connection of USB storage, is enough for much of the market, that have already bought tablets.
Simplicity, price and features, make this a difficult project for MS. Short of making HD, and 4K TVs, with integrated xbox 720s, and giving away free smartglass tablets as remotes, I don't think they have enough pull factor, or a simple enough offering.
Edited by vizzini at 10:24:08 23-01-2013