WOW to add 1m more subs - analyst

By Oli Welsh Published 15 October, 2008

WAR won't have "a negative impact".

Lazard analyst Colin Sebastian reckons World of Warcraft can add another million subscribers to its total of 10.9 million in the next year, and that it will shrug off competition from Warhammer Online.

"We expect a net addition of 1 million new subscribers to World of Warcraft over the next 12 months, driven in part by the launch of the [Wrath of the Lich King] expansion pack, as well as by ongoing growth of the game in China," Sebastian said (as reported by Edge Online).

He recognised Warhammer Online's achievement in recruiting 750,000 players, but reckons it won't dent the progress of the Blizzard juggernaut.

"We do not expect [Warhammer Online to have] a significant negative impact in the near-term on World of Warcraft - and note that preorders of the upcoming [WOW] expansion pack rank as one of the best selling games on Amazon.com and other retail websites," Sebastian said.

He advised investors to buy Activision Blizzard stock after being impressed by last weekend's BlizzCon event, where, he said, he couldn't find anyone interested in WAR. Funny, that.

In other words, he went to a convention, talked to fanboys, and did some internet shopping as research. No wonder the financial world is in collapse.

Can WOW forge on to 12 million subscribers? Will WAR's superior PVP game steal players away? Commence your trolling in the comments, but remember - there's every possibility that both those things might happen.

Picture of Oli.

About Oli Welsh

Oli is Eurogamer's acting deputy editor and reviews editor and likes to take things one word at a time. He is among the best dressed people in South London.

Read more articles from Oli by visiting the Oli Welsh archive page.

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Comments (24) Latest comment 4 years ago

Comments for this article are now closed, but please feel free to continue chatting on the forum!

  • ZuluHero #1 4 years ago

    i'm sure this analyst is subscribed to wow...

  • Dizzy #2 4 years ago

    Maybe.. maybe not. I have seen many WoW players move to WAR. But those 1m extra WoW players will probably come from "new" markets.

  • Fleisch #3 4 years ago

    I personally didn't realise you could only subscribe to one MMO at a time!?

    I've got both WoW and WAR and they both get equal love!

  • Chimpy #4 4 years ago

    In the WAR guild I was in most people came from WoW and have since returned to WoW. Only the most hardcore pvpers remained in WAR. I don't know if this is typical or not. We'll have to wait and see if EA release subscription data.

    750000 was the number of purchases of boxed copies. Even if there's 50% update, that's only 375000 subscribers.

    Saying that, that is just in English in the USA and Europe. WoW runs French, German, Spanish, Russian and Chinese servers so it's hard to compare the figures.

  • Drone #5 4 years ago

    Personally I see both games subs going up. It isn't like the market is at 100% saturation where every subscriber WAR or any other mmo for that matter can only get players from wow.

  • Kremlik Verified Co-Founder, Crash To Desktop #6 4 years ago

    I agree with what EG have said here assuming WAR wont make a dent in WoW from views of WoW fans is like saying everyone likes Star Wars at a Star Wars convention... of course it's going to look like that from that view..

    Anywho yea WotLK will steal players back out of couriosity HOWEVER no one is thinking long term properly - whos to say players wont steam thru the content 'firsting' everything and then come 2-3 months down the line leave WoW yet again as 'there is no content' ala TBC again?

    WoW didn't gain '11 million' overnight and it sure as hell wont lose that number overnight either, same can be said about WAR you only get mass exiduses when a game doesn't deliver and is very poor quality, neither game is such, both games are soild if you view them as length of exsistance (ie WAR for a month old game is great qualitly compeared to the first months of things like TR, Vanguard, AoC etc etc)..

    If anyone could hazard a guess what will happen over this next year WoW will gain it's '12 million' then drop to 10 over 4-5 months and WAR is going to slowly gain users as it opens up in the world and possily hit about 3 million come 2010.

  • Centipede #7 4 years ago

    Kremlik, you are completely right..

    I am a blizzard fan, so I have no interest in playing anything that does not have the blizzard logo attached to it.

    ….see my point. Blizzcon is for Blizzard fans. Asking ppl if they are considering playing Warhammer at a Blizzard fan convention is not good research in my book.

    As I said, I am a Blizzard fanboy and I have paid 70euro to go to the WWI. Do you really think I have any intention to play an MMO of a competitor?

    …plain stupid

  • orakio #8 4 years ago

    As long as we're all having a good time.

  • koji_m #9 4 years ago

    people just love eating crap don't they, I'ld eat it everyday if I could

  • kapowaz #10 4 years ago

    Will WAR's superior PVP game steal players away?

    Will this EG journalist's bias be made more transparent?

  • kapowaz #11 4 years ago

    There are lots of silly assumptions in these comments.

    Anywho yea WotLK will steal players back out of couriosity HOWEVER no one is thinking long term properly

    A proposterous assertion; WotLK will retain players who buy it for precisely the reason that people play WoW in the first place: they enjoy it. Many of the changes in WotLK have been made to make the game more approachable and fun for demographics on the fringes of their subscriber base (or not, dependent on your view of casual players). These changes are not simply for show; they're intended to make the game more fun in the long term.

    As I said, I am a Blizzard fanboy and I have paid 70euro to go to the WWI. Do you really think I have any intention to play an MMO of a competitor?

    I went to WWI. I have played other MMOs. I will, presumably, play other MMOs. The reason I'm choosing not to, however, isn't because of some ridiculous concept of loyalty to Blizzard. The reason is simple: theirs is the best MMO out there at the moment.

  • iokthemonkey #12 4 years ago

    Will WAR's superior PVP game steal players away?

    Will this EG journalist's bias be made more transparent?

    ----

    My left and right buttocks' PVP game is superior to WoW's. Seriously, PvP is something WoW doesn't do well at all. The PvE stuff, quests, crafting, it's all good. But PvP is very much the poor relation in WoW.

  • linksdad #13 4 years ago

    WARS PVP may have stolen some thunder if the first patch didnt make scenarios crash upon entering them.

    I'll probably go back to warcraft for the new expansion and if I like it then WAR gets the back foot and no sub.

  • Gaol #14 4 years ago

    'Will WAR's superior PVP game steal players away? '

    Was gonna quote this out as well. It's certainly arguable. WoW has much better combat, more balanced classes, proven battlegrounds and world content, and dedicated arena tournaments.

    Of course I'm playing devils advocate, but WAR still has a lot to prove.

  • MaxiSleep #15 4 years ago

    "Will WAR's superior PVP game steal players away? "

    I think WaR can coexist. The PvP I have experienced is quite accesable and means you can dip back in for it whilst still playing WoW. I have taken the plunge and gone for a 6 monther on it. However I do find (like Lotr online) that it is hard to play for more then an hour at a time, whereas on WoW I can play for rather longer without headaches etc.

    But for me WaR will not replace WoW, but has replaced LOTR as my second mmo.

  • warlockuk #16 4 years ago

    "Do you really think I have any intention to play an MMO of a competitor?

    …plain stupid"
    Yes. That is plain stupid. If it's a good game then it's a good game. That's why I'm going to play it.
    Not just that, but don't forget where Warcraft got half it's ideas from in the first place :) (I mean the overall concepts/classes/characters etc, not the games)

    But yeah. Be a fanboy dumbass and dismiss a perfectly good game just because it's from a different franchise. The world'll miss you. :)

  • anomagnus #17 4 years ago

    its like people forget that WoW started small as well

    i dont remember wow starting with 10 million subs, do you?

    any way, you cant spell analyst without fucking wanker

  • Dizzy #18 4 years ago

    "Was gonna quote this out as well. It's certainly arguable. WoW has much better combat, more balanced classes, proven battlegrounds and world content, and dedicated arena tournaments. "

    ROFL...

    As a 3 year long WoW player I have always thought that WoW PvP is a total joke (yes and I did PvP a lot from time to time). It is broken by design and will never work. WoW combat engine is a PvE engine.

  • Kremlik Verified Co-Founder, Crash To Desktop #19 4 years ago

    This 'debate' could go on forever between 'which is best' for WoW and WAR: Players state WAR isn't blanced and yet it is just unlike WoW it's not balanced for 1v1 it's relmvrelm balanced, the classes do work well if players work as a team but if they don't it's easy pickings for the other side. For instance Destruction may be the popular side however an organised Order guild can make mincemeat out of 1:2 odds in favour of destro.. Fact is WAR is not as 'solo friendly' as WoW is - good for some players, bad for others..

    Bottom line is WoW and WAR are like Pepsi and Coke, same idea but different ways of making it.. There isn't really a 'better' it's more of 'preffered'.

  • Gl3n #20 4 years ago

    I remember the days when getting 750,000 subscribers was a monumental achievement for an mmo. Sadly success is going to be measured in the millions for the foreseeable future.

  • butler` #21 4 years ago

    Will this EG journalist's bias be made more transparent?

    HOLY SHIT. You found a journalist with an OPINION?

  • butler` #22 4 years ago

    BTW 0 point in setting this up as a competition, WoW is in a league of its own. That was obvious from the day it was released, and it's still obvious now. Nothing will truely hurt it in this generation.

    WAR's issue is, that whilst it has superior world PvP and battlegrounds/scenarios as current, that's the exact thing Blizzard are focusing on in WOTLK, having completely neglected them throughout TBC.

  • Centipede #23 4 years ago

    Just for the record (because of all your nice comments): I do not think WAR is a bad game. It looks great and has gotten excellent reviews. I'm hooked on WoW and will not leave the game in which I have spent a lot of time.

    It just seems a bit strange to me to do research at a fan-convention.

  • Gaol #24 4 years ago

    "As a 3 year long WoW player I have always thought that WoW PvP is a total joke (yes and I did PvP a lot..)"

    Three whole years and £350 of laughing at how shit it is eh? :)