Roper warns against writing off WAR

By Oli Welsh Published 23 February, 2009

Problem is expectations, says Cryptic man.

Cryptic's Bill Roper - the Diablo and Hellgate luminary now working on superhero MMO Champions Online - has stood up for Mythic's Warhammer Online after it announced its drop to 300,000 subscribers.

"I hear half the people are saying, 'Oh gosh, Warhammer looks like it isn't doing so great,' because they said they had 300,000 subscribers. Those are not bad numbers," Roper told MTV.

"I know many games out there that would love to have 300,000 subscribers," he continued.

Roper thinks that the inflated expectations that come from comparisons with World of Warcraft, which has over 11 million subscribers worldwide, have given pundits and executives a distorted idea of what a successful MMO is.

"It's like when you're in school, and there's the one kid that gets 100 per cent on every single test. You have to throw him out of the curve to actually see how everyone else compares because everyone fails when compared to that guy," Roper said.

"But I think that there are a lot of MMOs out that are thriving. And the good side about that is that you can have a few hundred thousand subscribers, do great, keep the company alive, grow it over time and keep it moving."

The problem comes, Roper said, when publisher executives don't understand that this is the case, or how a smaller MMO can be "fiscally sound".

"I really think that the biggest challenge maybe is that there's a much higher expectation now for MMOs. And It's really tracking more like traditional console sales, where if you don't have a certain amount when you launch - you have to get that big forward momentum at the beginning."

Roper discovered the problems associated with launching a subcription game when he had to close his Flagship Studios venture after the failure of Hellgate: London. He'll be hoping for a better performance from Champions Online when, according to new owners Atari, it launches in June.

Picture of Oli.

About Oli Welsh

Oli is Eurogamer's acting deputy editor and reviews editor and likes to take things one word at a time. He is among the best dressed people in South London.

Read more articles from Oli by visiting the Oli Welsh archive page.

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Comments (21) Latest comment 3 years ago

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  • wynams #1 3 years ago

    Roper still pining for Y2K when he was relevant, and made good games.

  • DFawkes #2 3 years ago

    WoW really has set an unrealistically high bar for everyone else. It's a shame, but at the same time it does push other devs to make sure their games are up to scratch.

    I quite like WAR, and hope that the suits in charge realise 300k subs is enough for many Money Parties.

  • kangarootoo #3 3 years ago

    Seems like a fair point. I'm not sure that will make a lot of difference, but WoW has shifted the bar somewhat and its not sensible for everyone invoved in the mmo market to use WoW as a target. A perfectly respectable and profitable (and fun to play) mmo can have a much smaller subscription base.

  • Byzanite #4 3 years ago

    hear hear

  • the_mtfr #5 3 years ago

    When I hear of Bill Roper I can't stop but think about the setup.exe of WarCraft 1. Clicking the test button would make Bill say "your soundcard works perfectly". Clicking it a couple of times you'd get an angry "it doesn't get any better than this", those were the days when Blizzard was fun.

  • superfurry #6 3 years ago

    300,000 subscribers paying €12 a month is €3600000. A substantial figure however you look at it.

  • MaxiSleep #7 3 years ago

    I really dont buy the wow expectation thing. WAR and AoC had great launches but suffered from huge churn, thus killing their momentum.

    The real problem WoW causes is if you launch without a finished product then people will cancel subscriptions, or not subscribe.

  • anomagnus #8 3 years ago

    hes right.

    i was disappointed in WAR, for many reasons, but even i would say that 300,000 subs is a good foundation to build on.

    They dont need to grow it to a million right now, but if they put in enough work, people like me could be tempted back

  • kangarootoo #9 3 years ago

    @MaxiSleep

    I don't really know much about mmos, but isn't a fair amount of churn natural for an mmo in its early days? Maybe WoW had less churn than its peers, but we have already established that WoW is an exception to the norm.

  • rudedudejude #10 3 years ago

    Enough with the goblins wizards and knights, get a 40K MMO out!

    Brand new genre, will be awesome.

  • Gurgeh #11 3 years ago

    "Maybe WoW had less churn than its peers"

    WoW didn't have to compete with WoW. In fact WoW in beta was a better game than any of the MMOs around at the time, despite having less content. This is the key to dethroning WoW - a new game can't match the amount of content so it has to beat the gameplay. That's going to be difficult in an Orcs'n'Elves setting, I'd go for a Battlefield / Company of Heroes style game, or something like APB seems to be doing.

  • MaxiSleep #12 3 years ago

    Gurgeh

    "WoW didn't have to compete with WoW. "

    That is exactly what I was trying to say :)

    And WoW at launch, even with Captain Placeholder/Lack of PVP and the like was still in pretty good shape. And I do miss those disorganized brawls at Southshore...

    The real mistake I think is that pvp on its own will not carry the mass market in Europe/US, i.e. good pvp is not a substitute for good pve.

  • TuftyMcTavish #13 3 years ago

    He's very right. More attention should be paid to the Eve Online model of growth.

  • Xerx3s #14 3 years ago

    300 000 * 10€ = 3 million each month, in dire times (or even in better times), that's not a bad figure surely? Why is there an attitude these days that unless you are top dog, you will go bust?

    As long as you are making a healthy profit, it doesn't matter what the rest is making.

  • kangarootoo #15 3 years ago

    @Gurgeh and MaxiSleep

    "WoW didn't have to compete with WoW"

    This is true. I am perhaps being a little naive in saying "Wow is the exception" as if that is a reason to ignore it. Perhaps the truth is that WoW has changed the mmo market, and all new games DO need to compare favourably to it (if not actually beat it), whereas previously they did not. Why gives my previous comment an air of "living in the past".

    However, "As long as you are making a healthy profit, it doesn't matter what the rest is making" is a fundamental truth.

  • iokthemonkey #16 3 years ago

    What's surprising though is when you look at why WoW is "good" and what it does "better" a lot of it is simply in the presentation.

    For example, when something new is introduced, you're given a briefing as to how to use it. Quests are always very intuitive and the descriptions are well laid-out. They always lead you to the next quest hub. All those little things that avoid getting "stuck" or a game becoming frustrating are what Blizzard always iron-out, IMO and it's what makes WoW a much more rounded game than others.

    Maybe some people dislike being lead by the hand so much, but for me, my play time is limited and I don't WANT to spend my time wandering around looking for quest hubs or trying to work out what to do next.

  • iokthemonkey #17 3 years ago

    Latest estimates put AoC at under 100,000 subscribers, yet they're supposedly predicting a 6-8 million USD income for the Q1 2009, so 300,000 is pretty sweet.

    I think the problem is WAR set itself up to fail, though. Their bullish claims of 500,000 subscribers as their target, which they subsequently didn't make, seem to make it appear a failure, but in reality 300,000 subscribers - as has been pointed out - in a game not yet released in Asia is damned good going.

    I wouldn't mind 300,000 x $10 a month in my bank account...

  • Lemming81 #18 3 years ago

    The thing about WAR vs say, AoC failure is that each patch is actually improving and adding to the game. There are still balance issues (if forum posters are to be believed. I'm sure there is SOME truth in there) and server stability issues when it comes to the end-game zergs but other than that it's an extremely polished MMO with a great IP.

    I fully expect that 300k user base to have increased by the end of March. Not by a wide margin, but rising nonetheless.

    However, anyone thinking of giving it a try I urge you to purchase a US copy of the game and play on the Mythic run servers over the pond (there is no lag to speak of for doing so..this isn't the 90's ;) ). GOA are running the show for Mythic in Europe and are ballsing it up nicely.

    Avoid GOA, and avoid becoming a 2nd class customer.
    Edited by 1 at 23/02/09 @ 20:32

  • iokthemonkey #19 3 years ago

    Funcom has other games though.

    ----

    Sorry, the article I was referencing gave the impression most of that amount came from AoC.

  • makememoo #20 3 years ago

    If wow did have to compete with something decent it would have struggled as well I think, the server stability was appalling, class balance the same and there was not a great deal of content (remember maura, dire maul were put in later to help with levelling and starting MC respectively).

    The difference is that Blizz learned their lessons fast and applied it to the live product. Other developers seem to spunk out their game (whether pushed into it by the publisher or whatever other reason) and then be like a rabbit in the headlights.

    The number of MMOs you hear of that get close to release and then have large chunks of the mechanics or content changed in the last year is testament to the fact that MMOs are the new frontier in gaming and people don't really know how to distill what they can see in the market (WoW killing everything) into best practice development and then release. It's like trying to recreate Twitter. No one has a fucking clue why Twitter is popular, it's not the most pretty thing out there or the most featured or complex but yet numerous other web apps will disappear into obscurity and that will make its creators multimillionaires.

    Having said that, if you make sweeping changes mid development cycle then you're never going to compete with something like WoW because you can't possibly give yourself enough time to get it up to scratch.

  • iokthemonkey #21 3 years ago

    there was not a great deal of content [in WoW]

    ----

    What? Sorry but that's a ridiculous statement to make. Whether you like WoW or not, you can't make a statement like "it didn't have a great deal of content" with a straight face. Eight starting races, six starting zones, hundreds of quests, two continents to explore and a shitload of gear, weapons, etc and that's "not a great deal of content?"

    Please...