Sony reckons it'll do a PS4

By Tom Bramwell Published 1 December, 2006

(An analyst had his doubts.)

Sony says it would be "rather short-sighted" to suggest there won't be a PlayStation 4, after Nomura analyst Yuta Sakurai did just that.

Speaking to the Financial Times in the wake of Sony's decision to to promote Kaz Hirai, Sakurai said he thought SCE's future would be determined by the former US boss's relationship with worldwide studios boss Phil Harrison.

But far more interesting were his thoughts on Sony's direction. "The appointment of Hirai could be the start of a shift from hardware to software," he suggested. "I cannot now imagine a PlayStation 4." (You think you've got it bad, Yuta - most of us in Europe cannot now imagine a PlayStation 3.)

Inevitably, Sony has responded, with US spokesperson Dave Karraker telling GameSpot: "Following the launch of the PlayStation 3 just a few weeks ago, and witnessing the huge consumer demand for the product, I think it would be rather short-sighted for anyone to predict there might not be a next generation of PlayStation product."

Indeed, Sony's never made any suggestion that it plans to stop with PS3 - Hirai himself having noted that a PS4 is in his plans, and Phil Harrison having speculated on whether it will use discs or an e-distribution model.

Picture of Tom.

About Tom Bramwell

Tom is Operations director of Eurogamer Network and Editor-at-Large of Eurogamer.net. He joined the company in February 2000.

Read more articles from Tom by visiting the Tom Bramwell archive page.

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Comments (43) Latest comment 5 years ago

Comments threads automatically close after 30 days, but please feel free to continue chatting on the forum!

  • Xephon70 #1 5 years ago

    I suppose time well tell.

    Now let the good times roll!

  • lambtron #2 5 years ago

    Was there ever any doubt about this? Even if the PS3 is a disaster of biblical proportions I would expect Sony to make at least one more attempt.

  • Psi #3 5 years ago

    ps4 will be a ps3 with a memory upgrade slightly faster processer and a funky strange new controller that detects movement.

    sony fans will hail it as the best thing since sliced bread.

  • Steroyd #4 5 years ago

    Sony not doing a home console with multi-media features would be like MS getting out of the OS market because Vista flopped. o_O

  • rudedudejude #5 5 years ago

    "witnessing the huge consumer demand for the product"

    You have made 10 PS3's FFS, of course you're going to have big demand.

  • SeesThroughAll #6 5 years ago

    It will surely be the last if they do.

  • JediMasterMalik #7 5 years ago

    So "next-next-gen" doesn't start until we say so, huh?

    You knew that was marketing BS thesecond they said it. Get over it.

    I think the PS3 will be successful enough to warrant another playstation.

  • Nobuo #8 5 years ago

    Let's not forget that SEGA had another go even after the Saturn, so this news might not really mean anything.

  • Muddtallica #9 5 years ago

    What the hell is this analyst talking about? Sony aren't Sega or Nintendo, they're primarily a hardware manufacturer who have only realtively recently started doing software development as a means to support their own hardware. Why would they ditch their own reason for being?

    If there is no PS4, I will eat the item of clothing of your choice, I promise you that.

  • floppylobster #10 5 years ago

    The Saturn? That was having another go after the Mega-CD. The Dreamcast was having another go after the 32X. There could be a PlayStation 5!
    Edited by 1 at 01/12/06 @ 10:25

  • JediMasterMalik #11 5 years ago

    There seem to already have been at least 2 more shipments to the US. Sony aren't releasing figures though.

  • lambtron #12 5 years ago

    @ Muddtallica

    What if they don't call it the PS4 ;).

  • alimokrane #13 5 years ago

    Ha! Eurogamer quoting from gamespot after they called them "Gamespit!" on the EGTV show .... interesting.

  • Muddtallica #14 5 years ago

    lambtron: Yeah, I was just thinking that...OK, if Sony do not make another piece of hardware after the PS3, then I will eat the clothing. I'm not having any smart alec making me eat a jockstrap on a technicality. :p

  • Halo.Jones #15 5 years ago

    @ Mudd, how about my soiled underpants, not like I've got any but I could make a special exception just this once.

  • Steroyd #16 5 years ago

    @ Muddtallica

    What if they don't call it the PS4 ;).

    Are you mad!?!

  • drumbaby #17 5 years ago

    I think they'll skip PS4 and go straight to PS 460.

  • penhalion #18 5 years ago

    Yep the analyst was more stating that sony may go the way of sega and pull out of the console market all together after the PS3. Sony looses a heap of money on each box. Until blue ray takes off (if it does), then they can't recoup over the next 4-5 years. This is pretty much the life of the console!

    I wouldn't mind seeing Ico for 360 or wii.

  • playgen #19 5 years ago

    I doubt sony will be loosing money on each console for very long. Most consoles (apart form nintendos) are sold at a loss to begin with. The more consoles they produce, the cheaper they are to make.

  • RatBastard #20 5 years ago

    If Sony go software only, they are doomed! They always been a hardware company, and I can hardly see them being saved by the output of Phil Harrison's studios...

  • Mildew #21 5 years ago

    And in other news the Earth DOES revolve around the sun...

  • 2099net #22 5 years ago

    Well Sony are loosing about $300 per console sold. More in reality because I doubt that takes into account the huge research and development on the Cell architecture (sorry "The Power of the Cell®";)

    Meanwhile, Microsoft are making a profit on their Xbox360s. Nintendo are making a profit on every Wii sold from launch.

    How are Sony in a position to compete with Microsoft? Microsoft has more money in the bank and is in a position to loose money where Sony isn't. Sony is in major financial trouble at the moment.

    Microsoft could lower the price of the 360 to $50 and still only be making a loss comparable to Sony on the PS3. Sony can't realistically lower the price of the PS3 at the moment. And even when costs do come down, they may still be in debt from the losses on the PS3 units sold previously.

    You just cannot understate how strong Microsoft's position is at the moment compared to Sony's. Microsoft hold all the cards - if demand for the PS3 continues at the current level into 2007, MS can drop the price of the 360. If demand for the PS3 begins to drop off, Sony can do nothing.

    Nintendo's sucesss with the Wii is having an impact on Sony too. They bet the house on the PS3, and it may be a gamble which leaves them homeless.

  • Reapergold #23 5 years ago

    @2099

    Heres hoping ey :D

    I like the idea of Sony directors going from leer jets to under the bridge, bottle of meths in a brown paper bag :)

  • FladgeMangle #24 5 years ago

    Analysts? There's seem to be a whole industry of these grown in recent years. As far as I'm concerned you can stop at the first four letters.

    And for goodness sake will you people learn how to spell LOSING please? Loosing, if it is in fact an actual valid word, is more akin to what Mudtallica will have to do to his garments in order to ingest them.

  • chupachups #25 5 years ago

    The problem with analysts (and all reporting) is that the most sensational ones make the headlines even if the majority stick to a more moderate position on an issue.

    This analyst reckoned there wouldn't be a PS4, but loads more reckon there will be. What's probably nearer the truth is that we'll just have to wait a year or two to see how the PS3's games sell and how they manage to get production costs down.

    If the games sell really well, Sony won't lose that much money, but if the games sell badly then Sony is in trouble.

    On the production costs front, in Sony's favour is the use of blu-ray and cell in other devices such as computers and video players, so as these other devices become more common the production cost for the PS3 will go down faster than if the blu-ray and cell were PS3-exclusive. If blu-ray takes off quickly, the PS3's costs will go down very quickly. If blu-ray flops or takes off slowly, Sony could be in trouble.

    We just don't know what will happen for another couple of years, but no analyst wants to admit that because they'd be out of a job.
    Edited by 1 at 01/12/06 @ 13:24

  • Muddtallica #26 5 years ago

    2099: You seem to be forgetting that the 360 was manufactured at a loss when it first launched too. As more units get manufactured, the techniques get more refined, and the price of building one comes down. It's a process most consoles go through, and the same will happen with the PS3; possibly not as quickly or dramatically, due to the apparent difficulty of churning out the Blu-Ray lasers, but whatever the case, they aren't going to be taking these astronomical losses on the PS3 forever, that would be crazy. In the meantime, they make up the difference on software sales, which I think should be brisk.

    I wouldn't put too much faith in what these "analysts" have to say; I really think they're all underestimating the power of the PlayStation (tm) brand. Sony could release a cardboard box covered with nude pictures of Noel Edmonds, call it the PS4, and it would still sell millions. Therefore, I really doubt I will need to be 'loosing' any garments for ingestion any time soon. Or Halo Jones' soiled pants ("special exception"? That's what they all say).

  • 2099net #27 5 years ago

    The point is, yes, all consoles (except the Wii) when new loose money. But the manufacturers have to be in a position to loose that money. Sony, at this time is not. It's having to borrow money from the banks for crying out loud.

    Yes, the PS3 costs will come down, but they're still loosing money NOW when they technically don't have money to loose. When costs come down, they want to make a profit, not cut the price again to keep up with Microsoft and continue to make losses.

    If I was Sony, I'd be worried about the current attach rate of software to their hardware for the PS3 too. A lot of 360s went onto Ebay when it was launched last year due to demand far outstripping supply, but it still managed an attach rate of 3 or 4 software sales. What the hell has happened to the PS3's software sales?

    Sony have a lot of input into Blu-Ray, but they don't own the format. If people are buying the PS3 as a Blu-Ray player, then it will take much longer for Sony to get the money back, as the Blu-Ray licence is shared between the consortiusm members (plus one assumes the licence will be smaller per disc than what Sony can charge for a PS3 game).

    At the moment, its not looking good for Sony. It's hard to put any positive spin on the information we know... massive losses per unit, a semi-missed Christmas (in the US and Japan due to lower than predicted supply), a totally missed Christmas in Europe (same reason), disappointing software sales, the other divisions of Sony continue to loose market share to cheaper Asian brands... Everything I hear about Sony these days, even ignoring the PS3, is bad news.

    It is quite possible Sony won't have the money to launch a PS4, and if the PS3 launch doesn't go well, they may not be able to borrow the funds needed either.
    Edited by 1 at 01/12/06 @ 14:09

  • Aria #28 5 years ago

    to lose
    Third person singular
    loses
    Simple past
    lost
    Past participle
    lost
    Present participle
    losing

    to lose (third-person singular simple present loses, present participle losing, simple past lost, past participle lost)

    (transitive) To cause (something) to cease to be in one's possession or capability due to unfortunate or unknown circumstances, events or reasons.
    I lost the ten pound note. I must have dropped it.
    He lost his hearing in the explosion.
    She lost her position when the company was taken over.
    (transitive) To fail to win (a game, competition, trial, etc).
    (transitive) To shed (weight); to reduce.
    I've lost five pounds this week.
    (transitive) To have (somebody of one's kin) die.
    She lost all her sons in the war.
    (transitive) To be unable to follow or trace (somebody or something) any longer.
    The policeman lost the robber he was chasing.
    Mission control lost the satellite as its signal died down.
    (transitive) (informal) To shed, remove, discard, or eliminate.
    When we get into the building, please lose the hat.
    (intransitive) To fail to be the winner.
    Did you win this time? - No, I lost again.



    to loose
    Third person singular
    looses
    Simple past
    loosed
    Past participle
    loosed
    Present participle
    loosing

    to loose (third-person singular simple present looses, present participle loosing, simple past loosed, past participle loosed)

    (transitive) To let loose, to free from restraints.
    (transitive) To unfasten, to loosen.
    (transitive) To make less tight, to loosen.
    (intransitive) To let go.

  • Drakron #29 5 years ago

    Sony is a hardware manufacturer.

    The Sega analogy is a bad one, Sega is not a hardware manufacturer and its mostly a video game developer ... they also left consoles after several failures, unlike Sony that so far had a success with their home consoles.

    True, Sony is in bad shape but they are in several areas ... faster would MS go down with a string of failures in their software department that Sony would in their home entertaiment department.

    If Nintendo did not drop from home consoles after the N64 and GC why would Sony with a failure of the PS3 (and its too soon to make predictions of the PS3) ... I think its pretty safe to assume Sony will do a PS4 and even a PS5 before they decide to quit.

    And I like to remenber the MS fanboys that MS have YET to turn a profit with their gaming division ... they have to make up for several billions in losses FIRST before it turns a profit.

  • Gamemaker #30 5 years ago

    Great article. Who is Nomura analyst Yuta Sakurai, and why should I care?

  • SeesThroughAll #31 5 years ago

    And I like to remenber the MS fanboys that MS have YET to turn a profit with their gaming division ... they have to make up for several billions in losses FIRST before it turns a profit.

    MS is the exception among the three great ones in that they're not in the video games business just for profit. XBox losses, which are easily supported by their monopoly in other businesses, are of no concern.
    Edited by 1 at 01/12/06 @ 16:01

  • Aria #32 5 years ago

    @Drakron

    1. What a few people were discussing in here wasn't fanboyish, in fact you're the one who seems to have taken personal offence by it.

    2. We all know that Microsoft is losing millions -not billions!- in their gaming division, I think everyone's also aware of the fact that they can't make any profits before they pay for their losses, that's pretty obvious. The point is they have many many billions more in the bank to help them survive and build a strong base.

  • Xypher #33 5 years ago

    "to lose
    Third person singular
    loses
    Simple past
    lost
    Past participle
    lost
    Present participle
    losing

    to lose (third-person singular simple present loses, present participle losing, simple past lost, past participle lost)

    (transitive) To cause (something) to cease to be in one's possession or capability due to unfortunate or unknown circumstances, events or reasons.
    I lost the ten pound note. I must have dropped it.
    He lost his hearing in the explosion.
    She lost her position when the company was taken over.
    (transitive) To fail to win (a game, competition, trial, etc).
    (transitive) To shed (weight); to reduce.
    I've lost five pounds this week.
    (transitive) To have (somebody of one's kin) die.
    She lost all her sons in the war.
    (transitive) To be unable to follow or trace (somebody or something) any longer.
    The policeman lost the robber he was chasing.
    Mission control lost the satellite as its signal died down.
    (transitive) (informal) To shed, remove, discard, or eliminate.
    When we get into the building, please lose the hat.
    (intransitive) To fail to be the winner.
    Did you win this time? - No, I lost again.



    to loose
    Third person singular
    looses
    Simple past
    loosed
    Past participle
    loosed
    Present participle
    loosing

    to loose (third-person singular simple present looses, present participle loosing, simple past loosed, past participle loosed)

    (transitive) To let loose, to free from restraints.
    (transitive) To unfasten, to loosen.
    (transitive) To make less tight, to loosen.
    (intransitive) To let go."


    So that's where i've been going wrong......

  • Aria #34 5 years ago

    Exactly!

  • JackB #35 5 years ago

    I predict the PS4 will have something new and revolutionary. They will add add it to the controller and call it rumble.

  • chupachups #36 5 years ago

    "If Nintendo did not drop from home consoles after the N64 and GC why would Sony with a failure of the PS3 (and its too soon to make predictions of the PS3) ... I think its pretty safe to assume Sony will do a PS4 and even a PS5 before they decide to quit."

    I agree. Even if you look at Sega, they released several flops in a row before pulling out of the hardware business (Mega CD flopped, 32X flopped, Saturn flopped, Dreamcast sort of flopped).

    Plus the PlayStation brand is so strong that I doubt it will ever die, if Sony ran out of money they'd have no problem finding partners to do a joint project with, and if Sony went bankrupt the name would undoubtedly be bought by another hardware manufacturer. Heck... if they were offered it I bet Microsoft would jump at the chance of owning the PS brand.

  • cyber_nicco #37 5 years ago

    Thanks, Aria.

    ;)

  • urban #38 5 years ago

    btw EVERYBODIES AN ANALYST stop bloody quoting analysts.

  • Foxclose #39 5 years ago

    Sony is the most successful Hollywood studio this year.
    Yet people are telling me they are only good at hardware! LOL!!

  • penhalion #40 5 years ago

    @Foxclose

    Sony publish movies. They have very little to do with their actual making! They provide funding in some cases (not all) and distribution channels. Currently sony's other businesses are paying for their PS3 development!

    It isn't cheap

  • Foxclose #41 5 years ago

    @penhalion

    That's how the movie business works (for all studios) and this year Sony are currently kings with the most market share.

    [link url=http://www.boxof ficemojo.com/studio/
    ]http://www.boxof ficemojo.com/studio/
    [/link]

    I was just trying to point out to people here that Sony are a successful entertainment content company as well as a hardware company. There’s no reason why they can’t develop and publish top games; I believe they already do!

  • davisorle #42 5 years ago

    yeah let's all talk about a PS4 since they already have problemes with the ps3 production.. smart topic this one as well.. Let's fill all websites with everything stupid possible mentioning PS3 so they can promote it better and make for once more everyone talk and care about that PS3... lame old shit.

  • floppylobster #43 5 years ago

    Well that's it, forget this generation. I'm waiting for a PS4.