Microsoft hopes motion-sensing add-on Kinect will breathe life into the Xbox 360, but one research firm is sceptical to say the least.
According to DFC Intelligence, which specialises in videogame market research, Kinect will have a "negligible impact" on the Xbox 360's market share.
DFC also reckons Microsoft isn't well-equipped to take the Xbox 360 business to the mass market level, reports Gamasutra.
"In terms of changing the overall video game hardware platform market share we see [Kinect] having a negligible impact," DFC's monthly brief said.
"The Xbox 360 has some good years left, but the platform is clearly on the downside of its lifecycle."
Part of the problem, DFC said, is Microsoft's apparent strategy of taking casual-focused genres and putting them on Kinect.
At E3 2010, Microsoft unveiled a raft of Kinect titles, including Kinect Sports, Kinect Adventures! and Kinectimals.
"There are numerous problems with this approach, but the biggest problem is Microsoft, at its core, is simply not an entertainment company.
"Almost every time Microsoft has tried to emulate successful entertainment products they have failed. ... [with the exception of] PC gaming prior to the Xbox and then the Xbox platform itself.
"...Microsoft is putting almost all its eggs into the Kinect as a way to appeal to the 'casual' consumer and expand its user base... Unfortunately, based on what we have seen, DFC continues to feel that Microsoft is going to struggle to expand beyond its core audience."
Kinect wasn't the only new tech to get it in the neck from DFC.
The firm also had some choice words for Sony's PlayStation Move.
"Products like Kinect and PS Move are an attempt to get around this dilemma [how to push through console mid-life]. Unfortunately, we think they are at best a temporary attempt to tackle a much larger strategic issue."
We'll see soon enough. Move will hit Europe on 15th September, and Kinect's due out in November.