Kinect will have "negligible impact"

By Wesley Yin-Poole Published 1 July, 2010

Reckons market research firm.

Microsoft hopes motion-sensing add-on Kinect will breathe life into the Xbox 360, but one research firm is sceptical to say the least.

According to DFC Intelligence, which specialises in videogame market research, Kinect will have a "negligible impact" on the Xbox 360's market share.

DFC also reckons Microsoft isn't well-equipped to take the Xbox 360 business to the mass market level, reports Gamasutra.

"In terms of changing the overall video game hardware platform market share we see [Kinect] having a negligible impact," DFC's monthly brief said.

"The Xbox 360 has some good years left, but the platform is clearly on the downside of its lifecycle."

Part of the problem, DFC said, is Microsoft's apparent strategy of taking casual-focused genres and putting them on Kinect.

At E3 2010, Microsoft unveiled a raft of Kinect titles, including Kinect Sports, Kinect Adventures! and Kinectimals.

"There are numerous problems with this approach, but the biggest problem is Microsoft, at its core, is simply not an entertainment company.

"Almost every time Microsoft has tried to emulate successful entertainment products they have failed. ... [with the exception of] PC gaming prior to the Xbox and then the Xbox platform itself.

"...Microsoft is putting almost all its eggs into the Kinect as a way to appeal to the 'casual' consumer and expand its user base... Unfortunately, based on what we have seen, DFC continues to feel that Microsoft is going to struggle to expand beyond its core audience."

Kinect wasn't the only new tech to get it in the neck from DFC.

The firm also had some choice words for Sony's PlayStation Move.

"Products like Kinect and PS Move are an attempt to get around this dilemma [how to push through console mid-life]. Unfortunately, we think they are at best a temporary attempt to tackle a much larger strategic issue."

We'll see soon enough. Move will hit Europe on 15th September, and Kinect's due out in November.

Picture of Wesley.

About Wesley Yin-Poole

Wesley is Eurogamer's news editor. He likes news, interviews, and more news. He also likes Street Fighter more than anyone can get him to shut up about it.

Read more articles from Wesley by visiting the Wesley Yin-Poole archive page.

You may also like...

Comments (51) Latest comment 2 years ago

Comments for this article are now closed, but please feel free to continue chatting on the forum!

  • makariel #1 2 years ago

    "There will never be a bigger plane built.", as said by a Boeing engineer after the first flight of the 247, a twin-engine plane that had enough space for ten people.

  • beastmaster #2 2 years ago

    "Microsoft is going to struggle to expand beyond its core audience."

    This is true. To appeal to it's core audience it's going to be around £70 tops. With Children Of Eden.

  • davisorle #3 2 years ago

    Post deleted at 15:13:12 09-05-2012

  • des #4 2 years ago

    DFC Intelligence...hmm,that sounds familiar

  • oupe #5 2 years ago

    Hey all, I've just started a company (it's free after all). It's called oef! and sons technology consultancy.

    We think that Kinect will be a huge succes for a lot of trivial reasons and a number of cherry picked compelling arguments. For more information and pricing give us a call.

  • Octoroc #6 2 years ago

    What on Earth is a "Kiniectimal"?

  • Doctor_What #7 2 years ago

    It's not exactly difficult to work out is it? The E3 showing wasn't compelling and the price is high, therefore it doesn't look like a good buy.

    Move currently looks a lot healthier, but it's not at all high profile outside of core gamers so it probably won't be huge either.

    Pop the cheque in the post. My work here is done.

  • menage #8 2 years ago

    Research firm searching for ways to validate it's existence, film at 11.

    I'm not hot for kinect, but analysts must be the most useless people on the planet. When they get it right it's "we told you so", when wrong "you can't predict anything, that's life". Easiest moneymaking ever.

    Srop printing crap like that, they aren't worth the space.

  • MaFlippinHeadHurts #9 2 years ago

    Another comments thread where everyone will think it’s extremely trendy to slag off Kinect.

    I have kids, therefore I’m looking forward to seeing what it’s capable of…….having said that, they don’t go anywhere near the Wii/Fit.

    My only grumble is the price which I feel is too high

  • EraSerX #10 2 years ago

    I would have told the same thing without charging £100/hour

  • Shinetop #11 2 years ago

    "Almost every time Microsoft has tried to emulate successful entertainment products they have failed. ... [with the exception of] PC gaming prior to the Xbox and then the Xbox platform itself.

    Those are some pretty damned huge exceptions there, pal. This is like saying that no Apple product has yet attracted a notable percentage of consumer market share, with the exception of iPods and the iPhone.
    Edited by Shinetop at 01/07/10 @ 10:28

  • spekkeh #12 2 years ago

    If prior experiences are anything to go by, it's not going to work because it's an addon. DFC Int. is probably right to point that out. Numerous consoles have tried halfway addons to extend the life of the console, but apart from the Dual Shock, all to no avail. If Nintendo released the wiimote as an addon to the classic controller, the motion games would've sizzled out after six months. As will happen with Kinect/Move no doubt.

  • Dizzy #13 2 years ago

    These are the same guys that predicted the Wii in last place and the ps3 outselling everything. Nuff said.

  • MiniAmin #14 2 years ago

    At the core of DFC intelligence there is probably a little boy who is angry because he was refused access to E3.

  • zedzee #15 2 years ago

    I don't think the impact is from a marketing perspective or appeal. I think both Kinect and Move will suffer because of the ongoing global financial instabilities and rises in tax.

    With the cloud of a 'double-dip' recession still hanging around and the fact that some major economies, such as UK and some on the continent raising things like VAT, this Christmas period may well be the only chance for these new products to shine.

    So we could see a good start, followed by a rising surge and then dwindling sales by early next year.

  • TopKatt #16 2 years ago

    While I don't think that Move will fare any better than Kinect, the impact on Microsoft will be much greater than on Sony purely because MS have put much more emphasis on motion control than Sony have.

  • IronGiant #17 2 years ago

    Hardly rocket science.. Price is too high, games shown were rubbish, number of players suddenly dropped down to 2, lag is inevitable and the Wii already has the Market sewn up = flop.

  • 46matt #18 2 years ago

    That's bad Intelligence

  • Darren #19 2 years ago

    Market research isn't conclusive but with this news and the lukewarm reception to Kinect at E3, I'd really hate to be in Microsoft's shoes right now. Maybe Kinect will be a big hit with 360 owners, maybe it won't. One thing I do know is that I will have absolutely zero interest in it until the camera itself costs £60 or less.

  • kule #20 2 years ago

    I must admit I agree with them. I'll be happy if I'm proved wrong however I can't see how this will do well - they are going to need some killer/must-have games for it to be successful.

    I can see where both MS & Sony are coming from they want to make sure this generation lasts as long as possible due to the amount of money it cost to get going and someone in management goes "oh look the Wii has sold like hot cakes to the casual gaming market we'd better get a slice of that too" however I would've thought it's unlikely they can resell the same product again to a different market. The casual gamers that wanted something novel, that even mum & dad can use, have already got themselves a Wii.

    I would've thought MS/Sony would've been better off just waiting till the next generation and bringing these new features as standard so you get full developer buy-in.

  • Bremenacht #21 2 years ago

    "Products like Kinect and PS Move are an attempt to get around this dilemma [how to push through console mid-life]. Unfortunately, we think they are at best a temporary attempt to tackle a much larger strategic issue."

    I assume the 'larger strategic issue' refers to the enormous Japanese elephant in the motion-control room.

  • Darren #22 2 years ago

    What's the betting that just before Kinect is released that the Nintendo Wii will receive a timely price cut? You heard it here first! :)

  • Slipstream #23 2 years ago

    Part of the problem, DFC said, is Microsoft's apparent strategy of taking casual-focused genres and putting them on Kinect.

    The Wii was able to get away with this because it was a brand new console with a targetted demographic in mind.
    However the Xbox360 has an established demographic who are clearly interested in a well established style of console gaming, using a pad, yet here they are attempting to cater to a different audience, and it's no seceret that many Xbox players feel alienated by some of driviel shown for Kinetic.
    Edited by Slipstream at 01/07/10 @ 17:35

  • linksdad #24 2 years ago

    I think DFC are bang on the money.

    This is a mid life upgrade peripheral, think 32X or sega CD. While a fairly large leap from the original spec, the price and penetration are going to be total barriers to development. Plus if you give the current gen another 3 years maximum, probably 2 1/2 before the next gen is announced then the window of opportunity for adoption is pretty tiny.

    I will go so far to say that I dont believe more than 1/6th of each console's audience will have these peripherals before the next gen kicks in. A few prime games will sell to most of the owners and a whole load of shovelware casual crap will languish with very low sales.

    The whole game plan may be to establish peripheral ownership in anticipation for the next gen so the cost barrier will be significantly lower buying the new console sans peripheral. But if anyone has any bright ideas in the meantime (think wii motion+) you will be left holding (or waving at) a dodo.

  • Jonny5Alive7 #25 2 years ago

    Its a bit daft to say MS has virtually always failed at entertainment with exception of Xbox and PC gaming. The Xbox is a pretty massive success so that in itself weighs pretty heavily against any other failures there might have been (I can't think of that many).

  • chibber23 #26 2 years ago

    ShopTo have quoted the RRP in the UK as £129.99 with November 19th as the release date. If they are correct (and MS hasn't yet confirmed $149.99 in the US or £129.99 in the UK) then they are coming in WAY to high. On top of that Play.com are stating it only supports 2 active players -which I thought was said to be incorrect a few weeks ago but questions like this keep raising their ugly heads over Kinect.
    Edited by chibber23 at 01/07/10 @ 11:19

  • BAM! #27 2 years ago

    The only place Kinect will have an impact is on xbots' wallets.

  • des #28 2 years ago

    DFC Intelligence prediction

    "DFC Intelligence also predicts that the PSP will most likely catch up to the Nintendo DS, but they didn’t mention whether or not it will surpass the Wii’s portable cousin."



    They have some even more stupid ones concerning Wii,360 and PS3...lolz
    Edited by des at 01/07/10 @ 11:35

  • Geordiemp #29 2 years ago

    Funny how eurogamer edits things, CVG edition below :

    "In its business software, Microsoft has been successful in analyzing what works for users of other products and incrementally incorporating those features into Microsoft products," it says. "The problem is developing hit entertainment products simply does not follow that model."

    "...Microsoft is putting almost all its eggs into the Kinect as a way to appeal to the 'casual' consumer and expand its user base ... Unfortunately, based on what we have seen, DFC continues to feel that Microsoft is going to struggle to expand beyond its core audience."

    DFC predicts that Xbox 360 and Wii will continue a downward sales trend in the years ahead, PlayStation 3 will see a "pickup in sales" this year and in 2011, but Wii will still have the highest overall sales.

  • Stomp224 #30 2 years ago

    Well, duh, Mr Analyst. The only question is how big a bomb will it be? Im betting on 32X proportions.

  • drxym #31 2 years ago

    I think Move & Kinect will have issues by virtue of being add ons for existing platforms. It's not like you get these things when you buy the console which immediately limits their sales. I would be surprised if more than 15% of owners will bother to buy these peripherals.

    In Kinect's case, I think that % is a lot lower due to its stupidly high price, its inability to be "patched" into existing games and the low potential for hardcore titles that appeal to existing 360 owners.
    Edited by drxym at 01/07/10 @ 11:49

  • DavoTheDiv_2010 #32 2 years ago

    Kinect = shite

  • Darren #33 2 years ago

    @dryxm - 15% of the 30/40 million existing user base is still a lot of sales so maybe that's all Microsoft and Sony are hoping for?

    Add-ons are seldom that successful in the long term because they're not a standard part of the machine that everyone who buys the console has access to. Microsoft and Sony may just be using Kinect and Move as tests for their next consoles, which will almost certainly include these things as standard, hopefully not as replacements for the standard controller though. I wouldn't want that.

  • Arwin #34 2 years ago

    I think the Move is going to be a big success in Europe. That's all I dare speculate at this point though!

    'Analysis':

    People who already have a PS Eye will buy a single controller 'en masse', and then people who were thinking about getting a Wii next to their PS3, or moving from Wii to PS3. There are drawn by the Sports Champions and Start the Party type titles.

    Then there's a group of FPS players that are going to want to try playing fps games with Move controller, and a small number of these will probably be coming from the PC still being mouse/keyboard guys looking to see if they can finally 'do' consoles now. Then there are some game specific fans who find the appeal in Move, such as:

    - Golf (Tiger Woods and John Daly games) players who want to try this out, maybe even bringing in a few new casuals
    - SingStar - for the SingStar Dance bits, with perhaps added appeal to finally get that PS Eye if they hadn't yet
    - EyePet, existing owners (EU only) who will get a big improvement over the PS Eye only experience they tried (in small numbers)
    - Hustle Kings (using a Move instead of a queue should be great)
    etc.

    Then there's a group of existing players attracted by new game experiences (the broader range of Move titles).

    I think this means that Move has a very good base for drawing the first set of players in. How successful the platform will be from there on will for a large part depend on the experience of this first crowd and the spread of word of mouth, the continued support with additional titles, and ultimately also the PS3's price-point (can they get a Move bundle down to sub 300 Euro within a year, then I think it has a solid chance to take off ... I'm expecting we may see a discount or more games packed in around the Holidays)

    On Microsoft, I can be much more brief. Since Kinect currently only works with new titles, and those are either dance, fitness or party titles, Microsoft only has two general markets. Those who want a casual experience and already have a 360 (and don't already have a Wii, say) or those who want a casual experience and don't yet have a 360. For the first case, many current 360 owners are fairly hardcore, but they may see an opportunity to expand a little into party gaming without having to do so on a different console. For non-360 owners, Kinect may appeal as something 'casual' and fairly fresh, but it will have to compete hard with Wii and PS3 and with its currently limited set of titles and even more limited set of genres, that won't be easy. There may be a few people for whom Dance Central or the fitness title will be a killer app.

    Perhaps its strongest advantage is that 360 has gained a little marketing advantage, getting more attention in the mainstream.

    So (again, I'm sticking to Europe), I think Kinect will have a tough time initially. If they progress steadily from where they are now, they may have more success next year.

    I'm far more confident on my PS3 predictions though currently. ;)

  • Lukus #35 2 years ago

    "Almost every time Microsoft has tried to emulate successful entertainment products they have failed. ... [with the exception of] PC gaming prior to the Xbox and then the Xbox platform itself."

    Erm.. so, with the two things that most closely link to Kinect, they've been successful? Right... What's your point? That sentence is more or less meaningless in the context of Kinect's success. Or at the very least it fails to make a valid point.

    Having said that, I can't see Kinect being very successful. Mostly cos it looks like a bag of salty jizz.
    Edited by Lukus at 01/07/10 @ 12:25

  • ronuds #36 2 years ago

    Well, they gotta predict something! It's safer to say something will flop than to try and predict a huge success.

  • Rubarack #37 2 years ago

    While this sounds about right based on what we've seen it's way too early for market research to be making these kinds of calls. They need inside information and product to do this kind of pre-testing and somehow I doubt MS funded or supplied this study.

  • gorf #38 2 years ago

    i say good for MS for trying. if it works there wallets will apppreciate it if it doesnt that gives them some valuable lessons for when they develop there next gen console. at the monet there seems to be quite a dramatic change in the way we control our games and im sure there will be some abortive attempts before sucess is realised. im sure MS can absorb the risk

  • Sunyavadin #39 2 years ago

    Oh man, a double whammy!

    We get to slag off kinect AND market research firms!

    In ONE COMMENTS THREAD!

    Will wonders never cease?

  • muscleblade #40 2 years ago

    I love my 360 because of LIVE and all the great hardcore games. I will buy Kinect to test it myself and let my girlfriend and kids have some fun with it. The dancing game could be alright. But i wish deep inside that they didnt bother with trying to emulate Nintendo. The Wii is the first nintendo console i didnt buy on release day. Its a reason for that.

  • Darkedge #41 2 years ago

    "Almost every time Microsoft has tried to emulate successful entertainment products they have failed. ... [with the exception of] PC gaming prior to the Xbox and then the Xbox platform itself."
    Err so they have had 2 MASSIVE sucesses so they fail in entertainment? Ok Zune sucked and MS tv stuff has been pretty crap but thats just a dumb comment.
    Kinect is still massively overpriced

  • ignatiusjreilly #42 2 years ago

    http://i.imgur.com/MkHSt.png

  • darc #43 2 years ago

    Microsoft has failed every time with the exception of the PC and the XBox. That's like saying I hate my shoes, except for the left one and the right one.

  • AOFanboi #44 2 years ago

    In related news, the Microsoft Kin phone has been dropped after selling a whopping 500 units in its six weeks on the market.

  • Les #45 2 years ago

    "In related news, the Microsoft Kin phone has been dropped after selling a whopping 500 units in its six weeks on the market."

    Yeah, saw that too. MS's consumer electronics track record isn't exactly great. Let's hope for their sake that they did proper market research before deciding to go the Kinect route...

  • Les #46 2 years ago

    "Microsoft has failed every time with the exception of the PC and the XBox. That's like saying I hate my shoes, except for the left one and the right one."

    Depends on how one defines PC... Besides Windows and Office (which one could label under PC I guess) they do make nice programming tools I'm told. And also some business ERP-like software. Though most of that comes from acquisitions funded with Windows and Office extortion money. (and even MS DOS wasn't developed in-house but acquired...).

    But I contest the fact that MS didn't fail with xbox: they might have a nice market share with 360 but it comes nowhere close to matching their original sales targets let or to recovering the initial investments.

  • MeBrains #47 2 years ago

    well yeah... ms promises much and delivers few... the last time a company arguably did so, it was an outrage to half of the customers... how come it ain't here?

    btw. the more I read about it: specs, price, games, the more I think this dude's right.

  • BonzoBanana #48 2 years ago

    Once kinect is out there developers might be inspired to do something special for it that will motivate us to buy. It does seem unlikely though but its not impossible that they can come up with a compelling game experience using kinect that drives sales.

    One thing that may damage Microsoft more is kinect is more revolutionary, if it does flop it will be more news worthy. Sony's Move is more easily implemented into games and so can be supported much easier. If Move flops but Sony continues support for a year or so it won't be such a big issue for adopters but kinect needs software more tailored to it. If kinect fails software will probably dry up completely.

    One argument against Microsoft is they seem to kill off products very quickly. The original xbox which I still consider a fantastic console was killed off rapidly when the 360 came out. They could have gradually reduced software for it rather than stop almost immediately. Sony supports its consumers for longer. The ps2 is still actively sold and supported. I realise their nvidia agreements probably prevented them from continuing with original xbox hardware as a budget product.

    My own opinion is both kinect and move will fail and the wii will continue to dominate the casual market. The wii is fully supported now with a huge range of software some at very low prices and the whole wii console is in the same price bracket as the accessory price of a move or kinect package.

    That said I'd like to see kinect succeed if only so it can be refined and improved into something useful to enhance hardcore gaming.

  • Stuz359 #49 2 years ago

    No shit sherlock.

  • BlinxHDD #50 2 years ago

    I don't think losing billions like Xbox again to gain Kinect casual marketshare is their shareholders' idea of "success".

  • gnrlstuart #51 2 years ago

    thing is, despite the cameras lack of tecnnical complexity, i think the launch, and the launch games will be a laugh. when nintendo launched the wii, minigame compilations (and fairly good ones at that) like wii sports and wii play really showcased all the different strengths of the hardware, and gave developers ideas on how the tech could be used effectively.
    so despite a lack of core games at launch, which will no doubt take time to produce, im sure kinect adventures, joy ride and dance central will be fun nevertheless, and that not to mention arcade and indie game support for kinect.