E3: MS execs: Natal not derived from 3DV Comments by Tom Bramwell

2015? Errr....

Maybe they will support the 360 till 2015, but they will surely have a new console out by then.

2015! Fuck me that's alot of RROD's!

That's surprising... I figured the 3DV tech was exactly what allowed them to do this. It's very similar.

I could do without buying a new console this side of 2012 anyway.

I like this: long console cycles. It's the way forward.

And I think Natal looks bloody amazing.

They probably bought 3DV to avoid any patent trolling later on.

2015? Errr....

He's implicitly referencing Sony's 10 year lifecycle claim, since 360 came out in 2005.

So you built this yourself and then bought 3DV.

Why?

It's not that surprising. Microsoft do a lot of academic work in user interfaces. In fact, my university project involved the practical implementation of one of their research papers.

Some Natal people have confirmed that they have been working for years on this. So I guess the 3DV thing is indeed a patent move and also a move to get new people in on the project. It also seems to be a much wider project than just a 360 project, coming out of the Applied Sciences devision.

I want to know when Natal will hit the shelves?!

They've got the guy that did the head-tracking Wii hack on board as well.

Doesn't the Camera-bar thing look exactly like the 3DV one demonstrated at CES in 2008 though...

@ Mentalist(air) - good point.

They may well support 360 until 2005 + 10 years, but that doesn't mean a new console won't be out earlier with some overlap (as is the case with PS2 and PS3).

>They've got the guy that did the head-tracking Wii hack on board as well.

Indeed... he was already working for MS when he did the Wii hack BTW ;)

His blog with a Natal post.

The 360 could become the new PS2 i.e. the platform that will never die.

Sounds extremely dubious to me. The full-body tracking system seems identical to 3DV's product, the only difference is that natal uses voice recognition also.

@Yob,

Actually, it looks very different in style. Have a search for a youtube vid and you'll see that the 3DV one looks like a standard webcam with a ring of lights or sensors around it. Also, the MS one seems to have 2 cameras built into it.

Well I don't hold out much hope for my current Xbox 360 lasting until 2015 so I really hope we see a new, more reliable next-gen model well before then. 2011/2012 would suit me for a new Xbox.

Otherwise the Xbox 360 and the PS3 as well are going to be horribly dated technically alongside the PCs of 2015 and long overdue for an update. I mean we're talking over half a decade and you only have to look back at 2003/4 to see how much technology has moved on since then, particularly on the PC. The Xbox 360 and PS3 are already showing their limitations now IMO, what with the increasing number of games with horrific screen tearing, lousy framerates and sub-720p resolutions. They never really were HD consoles to start with, were they?

So let me guess, now that the 360 has a long life cycle that now mean that long life cycles are good.

"The Xbox 360 and PS3 are already showing their limitations now IMO, what with the increasing number of games with horrific screen tearing, lousy framerates and sub-720p resolutions. They never really were HD consoles to start with, were they? "

I agree.. I want a new one beginning of 2011.

@GreyBeard,

What sounds dubious? The product itself? Or that MS had something in the pipeline before the buyout of 3DV?

If it's the latter, then it may be of interest to you that Bill Gates himself spoke a couple fo years back about a 3D positional camera being the way forward.

"So let me guess, now that the 360 has a long life cycle that now mean that long life cycles are good."

That depends entirely if you are in the market for new hardware or not.

Personally I like regular hardware updates, but the best software of previous gen machines is often comparable to the first batch of software for new gen machines, so many are happy to wait for new platforms to bed in.

The current gen still has a lot to offer, but I think I'll be ready for new hardware in a year or two, especially if backward compatibility is handled a bit better next gen! ;)

I'm in for a new console in the 2011/12 period. I think that MS are using the natal project as a way for devs to get familiar with how the next box will work. I think that MS would see supporting the 360 to 2015 as an ideal as I'm sure they imagined supporting xbox 1 for a longer period than they actually did. There are however lots of factors involved and every manufacturer has mentioned that bringing out another console soon may not be appropriate given the recession.

Natal was pretty awesome but I don't see it coming out for another year (if at all???) as they probably need to refine the tech further and maybe wait for it to be a wee bit cheaper before mass producing. I can't imagine this selling in vast quantities if the price is wrong (thinks of PSP Go!). If they retail it around £100 it might not be that successful as retailing it at around £45 (obvious I know) regardless of how awesome it is. A 360 Pro is £150 + £100 for an add-on doesn't seem to make a lot of sense. Bundling might be an option but then we'd have SKU hell, unless they remove elite and arcade and provide just a pro with or without natal.

What do you guys and gals think? How could they successfully launch natal and get the momentum they need?

Not unless they bundle it with every console, relying on people to go out and buy it (and its unlikely to be cheap enough)... will not work imho. I would put this as standard in the next Xbox, that way everyone gets it, but that then puts them in a difficult position of a more expensive console.

Well, if they want Natal to be used and get everyone used to it MS will just have to have it bundled with all new consoles. If Wii hadn't come with the Wiimote no one would have used it.
I'm actually hoping that the next MS console will bridge the gap between PC and Console. With interchangable hardware but in an easy to install boxes PnP style. Your HDD died? No matter, just get a cheap MS easy to install HDD box. Does a game require more memory? Change out your 2GB MS Memory Box for a 4GB one. Did your bus board fry? Don't sweat it! Get a new MS Bus Board, now even smaller! Act today and get the newly released MS Core20 Unit Box!

(I also want to point out MS is alot bigger than just mere software and hardware developer nowadays. If NASA ever gets killed, MS will take them over...)

The way he was assuring us at E3 that it will work with all current 360s implied to me the would start bundling. As for the 3DV thing I was wondering if the tech was different when I learned a little more about Natal. 3DV uses two cameras (two XBox live vision cameras in one demo) where as Natal uses one camera and another sensor (not a camera) exclusively to work out 3d positions.

Microsoft are the richest company in the world with billions of dollars in cash reserve.

I, on the other hand, am cash strapped and available for sale, or rent, to the highest bidder.

If they want to extend X360 to 2015, that's fine by me. And Sony, the PS3 will gladly last me to 2018.

"... coming out of the Applied Sciences devision."

Like batman? :P

If Microsoft have a 10 year life cycle, thats fine.

If Sony have a 10 year life cycle, it spawns bad jokes and is shunned upon.

More like the Batmobile ;)

@Rotmm

I'm dubious because if you google the reports of 3DV's Zcam demonstrations at CES in 2008 it is basically doing exactlly what Natal is doing minus the voice recognition part.

And although its widely reported that 3DV was a small-time Israeli startup, they were in fact selling the first iteration of their tech (since discontinued) way back in 2000.

The inference that MS were developing this tech in complete ignorance of 3DV's work for 9 years seems highly unlikely to me.

MS spend a vast vast amount on R&D, and Natal is part(?) of the result of that...

During 2007,
Apple spent $782 million on R&D,
Oracle spent $85 million
while Microsoft spent about $7.5 BILLION.
(source)

I love the idea of Natal and very much look forward to trying it out for myself :)

If the 360 can take care of my TV, Movies and game needs til then i'll be happy.

now excuse me while i run off and burn of the tips of my figures for sounding so much like a PR shill.

@GreyBeard,

Nowhere in that article do either Greenburg or Kim state they were unaware of the 3DV tech, but only that MS's tech has been in development for a significant time and that it isn't derived from any of the tech that 3DV had in place.

So can we now agree that, while MS may have been aware of what 3DV were working on, they have developed Natal completely independently from that company and that it has been in development at MS since well before the purchase of 3DV as a company?

@smirny,

Yes, but $7b of that was on hookers and rent boys.

@smirny

And for that 782 million, what exactly have apple produced.

A smaller ipod?

A touch screen phone?

Whoop.
De.
Do.

I believe them. TBH I think Natan was envisioned as a means of controlling an OS and the gaming aspects were tacked on in a later stage, under pressure from Nintendo and Sony. Would be in line with Peter M.'s claim that a lot of this stuff came from 'Windows'.

"Maybe they will support the 360 till 2015, but they will surely have a new console out by then."

Agreed. I think the next Xbox comes out in 2011 or 2012.

It'll be like the PS3/PS2 situation Sony have now, although MS will hope/expect their next Xbox to not have the lowest install base of the next-gen consoles.

"MS spend a vast vast amount on R&D, and Natal is part(?) of the result of that..."

True. But as the article that you pointed to reveals, spending a lot of money will not necessarily lead to great results...

MS's problem is that they earned too much money in the past. One might argue that you can never make too much but in organizations it generally leads to conservatism and complacency. When the revenue streams of old come under threat or there is pressure from the market to contain costs, such organizations tend to struggle and spend ridiculous amounts of money without achieving much if anything.

Makes sense that they snapped up 3DV for the patents. They wouldn't want Sony or Nintendo buying 3DV and stopping they from releasing this technology. Of course having 3DV's tech and expertise would no doubt help to refine the product etc.

Bullshit. It has almost unmistakable ties.

Not an issue, but ffs why try and deny it after you bought the company.

"Not an issue, but ffs why try and deny it after you bought the company."

That's very probably tied to the article smirny pointed out. MS spends billions on R&D and has very little to show for it.

TBH I'm not convinced yet that Natal is that great either. Time will tell...

Not only 3dv system . There is a company called Gesturetek sold licensees to both Sony eyetoy and Xbox360
Look at this page, the demo (flash) is the same Natal . Look at bottom of page , you can see logo Eyetoy and Xbox360
http://www.gesturetek.com/3ddepth/introd... .