Analyst: WAR will get 250-350k subs
It's selling in line with expectations.
Analyst Arvind Bhatia of Stern Agee has told Edge Online that he believes Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning's subscriber base will "drop off and level off" at 250,000 to 300,000.
This modest-sounding figure - similar to subscriber numbers for EVE Online, and far short of World of Warcraft's 10 million - is what he thinks it will take for EA to achieve its goal to "break even" with the game, which launched last week.
EA shipped 1.5 million copies of the game to retail; Bhatia said these were selling "about in line with, but not above, expectations".
"Based on our estimates for sell through, it would require about 20 per cent to 25 per cent of the purchasers to remain long-term subscribers, which we believe is achievable," Bhatia said.
The game's creative director at Mythic Entertainment, Paul Barnett, is much more confident: he told Eurogamer he was betting on one million players in the game's first year, and three million thereafter.
His boss Mark Jacobs, meanwhile, has said he thinks WAR will exceed EverQuest's popularity; the Sony Online Entertainment classic had 550,000 players at its peak.
We're going to step out on a limb and back Jacobs on this one. For more on Warhammer Online, including our review, check out the gamepage.
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Comments (52) Latest comment 4 years ago
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It's full of good ideas which in reality were never going to work in an MMO.
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Animations also need to be more exciting and explosive, my dwarve ironbreaker isnt the energetic whirlwind of destruction than my little gnome warrior is in wow. But i think this is the 1st game that will really be in the million subs in a year's time its very good and with lots of pvp and pvp ro do. Id recomend it to anyone for a bash even if only for 2 months while your waiting for Wotlk, it might persuade you in this time to stick- for me the jury is still out.
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If it's as good as the keep siege warfare Ive seen so far then I'm in.
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I'd say it definately safe for the next few years and has the potential to challenge WOW, if both games keep coming with interesting expansitions then they'll have equal subscribers in a few years.
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PvE is also entertaining, but I can see that becoming a bit samey.
PQs are a mixed bag, if there aren't enough people for 'critical mass' by the time the big boss turns up it usually all falls to pieces. But where there are enough people, I've been hugely enjoying them.
I'm going to keep going with this and see where it goes.
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It's full of good ideas which in reality were never going to work in an MMO. "
stop trying to play it like wow and RvR more
do a keep raid with 30+ poeple and tell me its boring , did one the other night and it was the best experiance ive had in a MMO since plane raids of EQ.
alot of people still dont get how WaR works it isnt a PVE game its a pure pvp game with some pve thrown in just to make up the numbers.
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Been playing every day now and it really is great for the PvP lovers. Since WoW PvP is a total joke and LOTRO PvP is interesting but a bit limited in scope where else would these people go?
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Oh ffs, stop comparing every mmo to WoW. It's not necessary.
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They all seem to work rather well to me?
Really loving it so far. It gives me a similar sense of wonder WoW gave me all these years ago when it was new - not becasue of the things it does similarly, but because of the things it does differently.
The way it pain- and effortlessly integrates grouping and PvP-ing is brilliant. I am sure they already have set a few new genre standards with their system.
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War is surprisingly well rounded considering how early days it is. They already have big plans to add new content. This has a future.
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Not sure if WAR is enough to cancel my WotLK pre-order, but I do find myself in the odd position of wondering if I have the time to run both in parallel.
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The public quest system is fundamentally broken. basically what happens is that the first two phases are easy when the final boss turns up there are no healers! so no one pulls him. Would you attempt an WOW dungeon without a healer?
RVR is again an excellent idea but only if two sides are balanced the reason chos is winning is simply because of numbers. At the moment they have no way of balancing this. SO again fundamentally broken!
Class balance is an issue play a black ork if you don't belive me.
There are some horrific bugs shuch as randomly falling through the floor and dieing. No CTD yet for me though.
The thomb is an excellent idea which is again badly implemented whats the point of unlocking stuff in the tomb when it gives you so little XP. The XP should scale with level.
Bad grapics not talking technically here. The graphics just don't have the lovelyness that wow have. Characters with mounts float a little and don't stick to the floor.
Lets face it guys it's another LOTR level mmo at best WOW has killed it by just anouncing the XPAC
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I'm not bashing WAR here. I wish them the best of luck with it, as the more successful it is, the broader the MMO market will grow. All I am saying is that the initial wow-factor (no pun intended) needs to be retained throughout and I'm not sure whether it has that or not. The trick to a successful MMO is to keep people playing and I'd be interested to see what WAR offers once you hit maximum level.
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I am not sure what you mean? Lots of healers about. The random PQ groups I joined yesterday already did quite a good job. Tanks alternating tanking the bosses, healers doing their thing. Same in RvR. With a little communication, it works rather well. Order had the upperhand in the open RvR last night on my server, but even with a random group and inferior numbers, we drove them off with just a little teamwork.
As for "horrific bugs", I've not had a single crash, or lost connection, or anything as you describe.
Destruction/Order balance is of course an issue, but to call it "fundamentally broken" seems to be a very weird choice of words for me.
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Youve not had a healer a couple of times which makes the entire mechanic (one that is being called ground breaking by others) is broken. By that rationale all dungeons are broken in all mmo's becuause they also need healers.
"RVR is again an excellent idea but only if two sides are balanced the reason chos is winning is simply because of numbers. At the moment they have no way of balancing this. SO again fundamentally broken!"
Do more research before making ill informed comments like this. Mythic have already said they will tinker with population caps and apply buffs to either side if the other gets too powerful.
"Class balance is an issue play a black ork if you don't belive me."
I have, are you saying they are over or underpowered?
"There are some horrific bugs shuch as randomly falling through the floor and dieing. No CTD yet for me though"
Not seen these, ive seen some minor glitches but thats it. Dont assume your experiences are the same as everyone elses.
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Could it be that the PvP-orientation of the game is putting people off playing healers? I don't know.
But speaking to a friend who plays, he said he'd encountered a lot of tanks/melee classes, as people considered them the "good PvP classes." Could it be not so much a fault of the game but more a problem with the mindset of the player base? You know in the same way in CTF games, nobody ever defends the flag and wants the glory? Is this the same?
I'm not saying it is, just musing out-loud and wondering if it's the case...
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no point talking to a WoW troll they cant see anything but WoW
@iokthemonkey
no not really on order ive seen more WP and RP than melee and on dest there are far more melee.
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The game just doesn't click.
The graphics is ok but the framerates is unstable.
Questing is fun, well most of the time.
Class balance? I haven't played any other classes but when I see a shaman healer with more or less equally geared as me but kill mobs much faster than me I just stared in disbelief.
PvP wise? I have never been in engaged in RvR battle but I have tried to queue in one of their scenarios ... for 30 minutes before I give it up.
Final verdict: Early impression is good but not as good as I expect it to be. But I can see that this game will get better unlike AoC. I will try it again in a few months time.
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Apparently the game is stuck on 16xAA with no way to change it inside the game itself.
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I was thinking the same thing myself thats why i gave up arguing half way through =)
@ iokthemonkey
I think your probably right. I tend to be the defensively minded person though. I play DoK so I'm melee and healing, it cant do the damage of the melee dps classes but it can stand up to a lot because of its heal-while-you-damage-approach.
From what ive seen so far there seems to be more healing on the order side. Im sure the order players on my server would say the same of destruction though!
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Oh well, there goes that theory!
As I say, one of my mates at work said he'd seen a larger balance of melee-classes, but I guess it's all just down to personal observations/experience...
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that is on my server mind you should have said that .
"Class balance? I haven't played any other classes but when I see a shaman healer with more or less equally geared as me but kill mobs much faster than me I just stared in disbelief.
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this dosnt make sense at all , you do understand what a tank in mmos does dont you , meat shield should be the better term you take damage but you cant dish it out , so of course a shammy will kill things quicker it is magic base same as all other MMO's , but in PVP you see how quick a shaman will last agasint you i know as an ironbreaker not much can take me down 1v1
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haha, many tried before - epic fail.
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Note though that there's also a comment from EA about it hitting EverQuest-level numbers, so it looks like they're being cautious about it and probably want to avoid the whole business AoC went through with its figures.
The other thing is, has WAR been released in the Asian markets? About half of WoW's subs are from Asian players, so without releasing there, no way will it hit WoW numbers.
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What makes you think a healer can dish out more dps than a tank? In any "other" mmorpg ... healer is a crap dpser.
Your comment tries to belittle mine but it actually does exactly that to yourself.
Nevermind. I have enough arguing about this game anyway.
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I think you misunderstand the mechanics of the shaman - it requires DPS output in order to build advantageous points for healing. A shaman will probably out damage you during the DPS portion of their mechanic, but then they will switch to healing.
As for more dps than a tank - why not? You're a tank - you stand there and "none shall pass"! If you're trying to out-damage people, you've chosen (lol) the wrong class. Tanking is about getting in the way of the opponents trying to squash your squishies.
Anyway, there are tank masteries in WAR that give you greater DPS at the expense of defense - try it for a bit longer and see how the class develops. I've certainly been given some pleasant surprises as classes move beyond level 10 and get some really handy abilities.
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Where WAR shines is on it's grand scale theme and on feeling part of something big. Players love the immersion and continuing story.
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secondly, PQ's dont mean that any tom, dick and harry can walk in and solo it. You CAN take down a final boss if you have enough DPS, but to be quite frank, having done EVERY PQ in the first TWELVE chapters, in some cases multiple times, i've NEVER had a case without a healer being there. Either you're the most unlucky person in the world, or something else
As for graphics, it may be the case you dont have AA and AF set. Go to your graphics board options, and force them. This game isn't 'lovely' as you put it, but nor is it meant to be. It does however shit on WoW's day glo graphics.
Realm balance, again, others have covered this, but can you tell me what server you;re on. I'm on karak eight peaks, which i would say is pretty evenly balanced, and i have to say, while we on order are pushed, its far, FAR from being one sided.
Now, heres my experience JUST from last night. It was a tier 3 keep siege. Tier 3 keeps are MASSIVE. At one stage, about 30-50 destruction players were pushing us hard, forcing us back, further and further until we had to enter the keep. Destruction kept the pressure up until the finally breached the doors, and it was up to myself and three other tanks to hold the door, while somone above poured hot oil over them. We then pushed out of the siege and had them completely rout, chasing them right they way back to their resapwn point.
Easily, over a hundred players, with the battle ebbing back and forth. No game, NO game does this at the minute
i'm really baffled how some people can fuck playing this game up. I mean baffled.
As for this analyst, fuck sake, when did they start entering the industry. They know the square root of fuck all, which let me tell you, isn't very much
this guy knows FUCK all! How many servers are queuing right now in Europe alone? Whats the population cap on a full server
@iokthemonkey
yea, the wow factor is maintained. Seriously, SERIOUSLY fucking maintained
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yea, the wow factor is maintained. Seriously, SERIOUSLY fucking maintained
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I'm sure it is fun, but you can't make that comment yet. What I mean is people still be as wowed by it all a year down the line? Or even three months after release? I'm not being negative but I don't think you can pass judgement on a game's lastability and end-game when it's only been out less than a week!
As I say, one thing I find puts me off WAR is it looks very narrow and looks to lack any sort of asides or end-game of note beyond PvP/RvR stuff. That's the real test of a game and I think you may well see a big drop-off when players all max-out there level and decide they've "won" the game...
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How on earth can anyone proclaim 1 million subscribers a certainty when they haven't even reached mid level? How many folk were proclaiming AoC the second coming of Christ in the days that followed launch?
Rizo said: 'Lets face it guys it's another LOTR level mmo at best'; and unless Mythic go into patch overdrive I reckon he's right. No shame in that though.
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I disagree wholeheartedly. WAR has grabbed my attention in a way that LOTR never did. And AoC was quite obviously in need of a major overhaul from the moment I first started it.
WAR, while perhaps needing some tweaks at the moment, is immediately playable in a vey enjoyable way. Many of your personal criticisms of the game have been unfounded (I recall you posted something about terrible draw distance - something which I found to be completely untrue, as I can see a long, long way in WAR!), but obviously comparisons to other MMOs are very subjective.
But I think that a lot of people think it's better than LOTR, and I personally think it's as much fun as WoW. I am waiting until I see the endgame before making any predictions about it's future, but I think this is the best MMO since WoW. And I'm having more fun at a low level than I ever did in WoW!
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Overall impressions are good, although 6months to a year extra polish would have only been for the best. Really looking forward to the bigger skirmishes as long as they are fluid and comprehendable.
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- many Stitches needed"
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been in since the head start, so been playing slightly longer than the week
but at the same time, each chapter surpases the next
you also have not given ANY thought, like so many others, to the chapter structure of a game
Here my case in point. In WoW, I roll, a troll, orc, tauren. These guys pretty much all start in the same zones. Once you start to include all teh other races, after say 20 levels, it doesnt matter WHAT race you play, you're in the same goddamn zone, doing the same quests you did the first time around.
In WAR, EVERY SINGLE RACE, in order or destruction has unique zones. A high Elf will have a completely different story to a dark elf, an orc will play out differently than a dwarf, etc. There is no cross pollination (i.e. laziness) in each race.
Which means i can play this game, SIX TIMES uniquely, never mind factoring in different play styles through different classes.
And you tell me, that it cant sustain interest????
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I said we'd have to wait and see if it sustained interest. ALL MMOs have the problem of what you do when you get to the end-game. The point I was making is that WAR is probably no different and from the way people are racing through the levels, end-game needs to be very, very good. I dunno. A lot of people play the same scenarios in, say, CounterStrike and never deviate from that, yet seem to enjoy it. For me though, I'm just waiting to see what happens with WAR once everybody is Level 40 and they begin to look for alternatives outside of the PvP. And that's the area WAR seems to be very narrow in - I don't see anything else TO do in the game (from my impressions of it) to do BUT PvP. If that's what it's based around, not a problem but for ME it seems shallow. I thought WoW lacked high-end content outside of raiding and WAR seems to be the same outside of PvP/RvR...
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I have only found problems like that very late at night / early in the morning when not many people are online.
For the first time ever in an MMO im playing a healer class.
Disciple of Khaine (Dark Elf) is one the games two melee healer classes. It's designed in such a way that I need to be in the thick of battle hitting things to replenish my equivalent of Mana. I can have two targets selected at once - 1 offensive and 1 defensive. I have abilities that heal my defensive target as I dps my offensive one. Genius.
I always roll mellee DPS characters in these sort of games. Hate standing back and watching the action
I'm having a ball tbh. I think that once things settle, many of the generic 'scary internet men' who all rolled 'Witch Elf' - the FEMALE ONLY rogue-like permanently HALF NAKED DPS'ers - will spread out and try the other classes ^^
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In one or two months time when a ton of people aren't re-subbing and when the players are even more spread out on the levelling curve PQs will be in an even worse state. I can't believe they didn't make them scale with the number of participants when they're obviously able to track who is participating. For all those of you having fun in your PQs below level 10 - enjoy them while they last. Once you get beyond that being able to complete any PQ at all is a rarity.
In general I find the gameplay to just be too weak as well. You don't 'feel' your character's hits connecting. Animation is poor and overall things just aren't as responsive as they should be. The network coding leaves a lot to be desired.
Such a shame really. So many cool ideas in this one let down by fundamentally weak gameplay. If they put the ideas and concepts into WoWs game engine they would have had a massive hit on their hands I am sure.
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Ranged attacks perhaps less so, but then they're either an arrow or a spell, and when my fireballs hit there's a sense of connecting.
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I don't believe my criticisms were unfounded at that time. Both the graphical issues, and combat 'lag' were improved by a patch right before launch. I also have it on good authority from guild mates playing that things were improved again at retail.
In retrospect, then, my comments at the time of the review (being based on the initial OB client) were overly critical if viewed in terms of the final release and I'm happy to admit that.
I still feel WAR has a 'cheap clone' feel to it. Animations and combat are not as satisfying as WoW. The lore/story integration is poor. And they are basing their endgame on PVP and (as you say) how that will play out remains to be seen. If you are going for serious pvpers then it needs to be expertly balanced and there needs to be really good 'sandbox' features.
Still think it'll end up at the LoTRO level. It's not 'triple A' like WoW was. Not yet anyway.
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What about people buying the game after that? Don't they count?
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No it isn't! Why do commenters keep saying this? PvE in WAR is equal to if not greater than WoW. It's just that the PvP is more apparent and actually works.
It doesn't detract from the fact the PvE is fucking awesome as well. I've PvE'd way more than PvPed so far in WAR, and I enjoy both.
Oh, and now that I'm finally in-game and having a ball I can say without question:
The stuff about the graphics being bad, or the animations off or the combat off? COMPLETE BOLLOCKS
Everything has been smooth, fluid, gorgeous and quick for me.
The only time I've ever seen crap animations is when something was bugged.
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It's just a copy and paste from a Warhammer book. It's completely disconnected from the player experience, and most isn't even written from the player's vantage point. For good integration of story in an mmo see the original Guild Wars campaign. Not brilliant, but as good as I've seen in an MMO.
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Quote : "I think one thing to just keep in mind is that AoC was supposed to be picking up 700K+ subscribers and then dropped to 400K after the free trial month and now stands at around the 150K mark (and is predicted to fall by a third this month)."
Last known number of subs was indeed after the first free month. In august 3 months after launch and then it had abit over 400k subs.
The 150k subsand sofort is your imagination speaking again.
WAR has a large following and is a big IP. I for one believe that it can reach 1 mill + if they polish the game fast enough. It has one other thing going for it aswell. It's not graphichs heavy like AOC. That means that a bigger number of potential players can run it.
In the long tearm i think both AOC and WAR will do well, but WAR will do better due to system requirements.
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No, unlike you (with your continual attempts to trash my comments despite never playing the game yourself) I spent close to £100 on a game that's a pile of shit. You would do well to go play the game for yourself and actually make an informed decision on the quality of AoC before you continue to question my judgement. See, I've played it, you haven't, therefore I'm in a much better position to comment than you.
Now we've clarified that and pointed out you're an idiot, let's move onto the real topic here.
I didn't "trash" AoC - I'm pointing out that AoC's figures dropped off to half within a short time frame, are continuing to drop and that many people who buy MMOs don't play past the first free month. MMOs depend on subscriptions, not SKU sales, so for a game to succeed it needs to retain players. I'm saying that AoC failed to do that and that the figures the analyst stated here are in all probability a worst-case scenario. But that said, despite the will of the players playing it and enjoying it, that doesn't guarantee anything in terms of take-up.
But yeah, keep blowing that Funcom trumpet (and I'm sure it's not all you've blown) and telling everybody how great you think AoC is. Maybe one day you might even play it and then realise what a tool you've been all this time.
There is hope for you yet...
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Before that every number is useless imo.
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The game launced in may and had 400k subs in august. What it has now nobody knows. Unless Funcom has released further numbers?
I say it again, both War and AOC will get high subs numbers in the end. They will never come close to WOW but more than enough to keep em going for years. It's tough going after a game with such a huge following that has been polished to kingdom come since it lauched years ago.
WAR and AOC will get players looking for something different. The question for WAR is wether it is different enough....
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Again, that's only half the story: If you haven't liked pvp before, you will like it in this game.