Digital sales to overtake boxed sales by 2015 - survey

By Wesley Yin-Poole Published 7 November, 2011

But there will always be a place for the high street.

Digital sales of video games will overtake boxed product sales by 2015, a new survey predicts.

Over 57 per cent of over 1000 industry executives surveyed by the London Games Conference said digital will overtake boxed by 2015.

16 per cent said it will take only a year. 39 per cent - the most - said during 2013.

The findings echo a growing trend towards digital sales and the apparent decline of the sale of boxed games.

Last week Dino Patti, boss of Limbo developer Playdead, told Eurogamer the retail video game model "has always been and still is broken".

"The retail model has always been and still is broken, from a developer's point of view," Patti told Eurogamer at the GameCity6 festival.

"Driving discs in a big van all over the world is really inefficient. I don't understand how anyone can make money out of this. Driving a truck to Japan just to get it delivered to people when they can get it from the net? Hopefully the new consoles will embrace the download space even more."

However, two thirds of respondents to the London Games Conference survey said there will always be a role for the high street retailer when it comes to video game sales.

While Microsoft has remained quiet on its next Xbox plans, Sony has indicated its next PlayStation will not be digital-only.

"We do business in parts of the world where network infrastructure isn't as robust as one would hope," former Sony Computer Entertainment boss Kaz Hirai said in August last year.

"There's always going to be requirement for a business of our size and scope to have a physical medium. To think everything will be downloaded in two years, three years or even ten years from now is taking it a little bit to the extreme."

Picture of Wesley.

About Wesley Yin-Poole

Wesley is Eurogamer's news editor. He likes news, interviews, and more news. He also likes Street Fighter more than anyone can get him to shut up about it.

Read more articles from Wesley by visiting the Wesley Yin-Poole archive page.

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Comments (35) Latest comment 7 months ago

Comments for this article are now closed, but please feel free to continue chatting on the forum!

  • The-Bodybuilder #1 7 months ago

    "Driving discs in a big van all over the world is really inefficient. I don't understand how anyone can make money out of this."

    But I bet you understand how to make money from DL sales. Namely.....charge Disc Prices for an online game, and making sure the price stays that way forever.

    Edit: And eradicate the 2nd hand market too.
    Edited by The-Bodybuilder at 07/11/11 @ 10:23

  • roz123 #2 7 months ago

    Are these the same people who said Steve Jobs is the person with the biggest influence on gaming?
    Edited by roz123 at 07/11/11 @ 10:24

  • FortysixterUK #3 7 months ago

    Digitial download only?
    That's a poor prospect for video gamers.
    It would cost the games maker much less, but the cost would remain the same the the end user.
    The only people who lose out are those that buy the game !

  • stevethemeat #4 7 months ago

    It may happen in time , but it would be suicide for any of the big 3 to release a digital only console in the near future.

  • -cerberus- #5 7 months ago

    The year everything goes digital is the year I quit gaming.

  • lockload #6 7 months ago

    This is more hope from the execs than reality, as they would love to remove the used market

    In reality only pc is really mostly digital. There will most likely be a new xbox/ps by 2015 but i very much doubt the majority of sales will be digital

    Just look at steam modern warfare 3 is £40 on pc, yes £40 how is that good for gamers? Retail are selling it for £30

    Lets not forget that £40 doesnt include the xbox/ps3 developer fee that publishers need to pay to ms/sony for publishing on console so the pc game is actually more expensive than console

    You can see how the situation is bad when you have these companies in russia buying RETAIL copies and then selling the codes for 1/2 the price of steam

    If we go digital then the price needs to reflect the fact you cant trade in but PSN (Mass Effect 2 £48) or XBox (Halo reach £40 18 months after launch) show this isnt happening
    Edited by lockload at 07/11/11 @ 10:38

  • arcam #7 7 months ago

    I'm a big proponent of downloadable games and avoid buying retail if I can help it, but even I think that's unlikely.
    Edited by arcam at 07/11/11 @ 10:35

  • Goodfella #8 7 months ago

    The only problem I see is it would effectively kill off the second hand market and no more trading in your [console] games towards another one matey.

    Unless they have some sort of digital trade in system planned, which would be nice.

  • -cerberus- #9 7 months ago

    @arcam: You seriously rather pay more for less? Let me remind you that a relatively big chunk of a hard copy's retail price are packaging costs. When buying a digital copy of the same game at full price from let's say Games on Demand, you're getting royally fucked.
    Edited by -cerberus- at 07/11/11 @ 10:52

  • homerramone #10 7 months ago

    And of course the digital price has already overtaken the retail one
    The wonders of modern technology eh..

  • arcam #11 7 months ago

    You seriously rather pay more for less?

    I buy games, not the plastic they come wrapped in - in my view, a game stored on my hard drive is no less than one stored on an optical disc. Plus I get the added bonus of a free replacement copy if I lose or damage mine. I don't have any experience of Games on Demand though, I am talking about PC games.

    If a game is significantly more and I want it on release day then I will buy the physical disc version, like I did with BF3. But I think that's the first disc-based game I've bought this year, whereas I've bought at least 10 games by download.

  • weezereire #12 7 months ago

    Bullshit!

  • jonfon #13 7 months ago

    @FortysixterUK
    "Digitial download only?
    That's a poor prospect for video gamers.
    It would cost the games maker much less, but the cost would remain the same the the end user.
    The only people who lose out are those that buy the game !"

    It could be a great prospect for the mid-level developers though.

    My chief worry with Digital Download only isn't directly to do with Value for Money, it's more what EA are doing with Origin (and Valve did with Steam), attempting to create for themselves a monopoly on their own products so that if you want a copy of Battlefield 3 or Portal 2 digitally they are the only game in town. Lack of competition tends to keep prices higher.

  • RawNinjaKid #14 7 months ago

    DD has worked well for the smaller older games on PSN and XBL, but for consumers to accept DD for brand new releases the price has to match the physical retail versions and have reasonable fair DRM, or we are not going to buy it anyway.

    We can't predict the future in terms of technology costs and the speed and scope of the world's network infrastructure. But as long as big new quality games are not sacrificed for size and quality, we be okay.

  • ZuluHero #15 7 months ago

    "We do business in parts of the world where network infrastructure isn't as robust as one would hope,"

    Like, say, the UK?
    Edited by ZuluHero at 07/11/11 @ 12:37

  • UncleLou #16 7 months ago

    @arcam: You seriously rather pay more for less? Let me remind you that a relatively big chunk of a hard copy's retail price are packaging costs. When buying a digital copy of the same game at full price from let's say Games on Demand, you're getting royally fucked.

    I do. Not more, maybe, but I certainly don't mind paying the same amount. Although "less" in that case means not yet another shelf-space needing plastic box with a b/w manual, and 24/7 availability. Which I would define as "more". And it's not like servers etc. don't cost money, either. In the end, noone is getting "royally fucked" is he gets the package he prefers, it's just that the profit distribution is a bit different.

    Obviously, lack of competition when it comes to console digital downloads is a problem, though.
    Edited by UncleLou at 07/11/11 @ 12:38

  • -cerberus- #17 7 months ago

    @UncleLou & arcam: We'll talk again when steam/xbl/psn/whatever are no more, your harddrive died and all of your games got deleted.

  • spunkythefunkymunkey #18 7 months ago

    I only ever buy my PC games digitally but one problem with DD is that especially in the UK most people's internet connections are pants.

    I have the best possible connection I can get in my area and I still only get 4-5mb download speeds. For future games that will be rubbish, even now games like RAGE are 25gb, that would take about 3 days to download on my crap internet connection!

    So until the UK government and BT get their fingers out and provide the whole of the UK with fibre optic broadband then I cant see DD only happening. Definitely at some point in the future, but not as soon as 2015.

  • steagz #19 7 months ago

    Even if it did happen the customer would just over power it and they would be forced to re think or face failure. 80% of the gaming public are against digital distribution only and that is a percentage you cannnot compete with. it might happen in the coming years but it will not be successfull. I have visions in my mind of the consoles being released with no disc drives. they then have sales like the 3ds did at launch. sony and microsoft go into panic mode and new re designed ps4s and 720s are released within the first 6 months of the digital distribution only generation. LOL

  • AmethystSword #20 7 months ago

    I am fine with my lovely physical copy thank you very much.

    Won't win me over to digital only~

    EDIT: Dont get me wrong though, little games like flower are fine but big games nono.
    Edited by AmethystSword at 07/11/11 @ 14:39

  • steagz #21 7 months ago

    A few things that have allways bugged me about digital distribution only talk.

    1. what about parents who buy their young children games for xmas and birthdays well not just for children for anybody that recieve games as gifts. how is that supposed to happen. are they gonna wrap up an empty box then xmas morning tell a couple of 6 year olds that they have to log onto the internet and start downloading before they can play?

    2. Their would be a new rule were you must have an internet connection to own a games console. in what world would that make sense. and in what world would that be fair. not everybody can afford the internet and i would say about 30% of gamers are not online.

    3. what about people who like to retro collect once the generation is over. that would all be down the drain. their would be no option to show off ur collection on youtube or anything like that. all you would have is over priced games on psn and xbox live as evidence that the previous generation existed. their is nothing quite like picking up a pre owned copy of san andreas up from cash converters for 99p

    4. ITS JUST A COMPLETELY STUPID IDEA THAT IS CONSTANTLY BROUGHT UP BY PEOPLE THAT PUT THEIR MOUTH INTO MOTION BEFORE THEIR BRAIN IS IN GEAR

  • arcam #22 7 months ago

    @steagz

    1. They can get a PSN card for Christmas, just likes millions of kids will be getting iTunes cards this year. Maybe not the same, but honestly, would you rather get the TinTin game your Auntie chose or the money to get a game of your own choice?

    2. No one's suggesting digital download only yet, and while only 70% of gamers are online, discs will remain. That will change though.

    3. Steam had every GTA game ever made for £5 the other day. Download versions are a massive bonus for retro games as no one needs to make space in their shop for a fifteen year old copy of Clive Barker's Jericho that no one will ever buy. Instead copies of every single game can be archived and made available.

    4. No real answer for this one...

  • andrewsqual #23 7 months ago

    No they won't. 90% of people don't have a clue about eCommerce or don't want to know about it. PSPGo proved that people are backward.

  • jonfon #24 7 months ago

    @andrewsqual
    PSPGo mostly proved Sony can be kinda backward (and I'm speaking as a Sony Fanboy). They have some great ideas and then implement them terribly.

    Like most things in life it's not really a "one thing or the other" type scenario, as the title of the story says you'll have room for both Digital Distribution and high street physical medium and things are better that way (harkening back to my point about competition. Competition between media types is good too)

  • MrVengeance #25 7 months ago

    The reason disc-based game sales are down is because the likes of GAME just want to sell pre-owned. Their greed for high margins will cost them in the long run.

  • UncleLou #26 7 months ago

    @UncleLou & arcam: We'll talk again when steam/xbl/psn/whatever are no more, your harddrive died and all of your games got deleted.

    When xbl/psn are no more, it is pretty damn unlikely I will have a functional Xbox or Playstation, so my game discs will be absolutely useless.

    As for Steam not being anymore, yeah, it could happen one day. But, to be honest, it's pretty damn unlikely that it will happen anytime soon, and my world will not end should it really be the case that I lose my old games. It's a risk I am willing to take. Just as likely that my house burns down or someone robs all my discs, btw. In which case I'll have other worries, but can at least still play my Steam games...
    Edited by UncleLou at 07/11/11 @ 15:09

  • thebuzzard #27 7 months ago

    @FortysixterUK I think its a good prospect for gamers some of the most inventive, interesting games of recent times have been download only titles. It removes a lot of the financial risk so developers can try new things.

  • steagz #28 7 months ago

    @arcam

    i made that comment as in lets just say it went digital

    pc and console are 2 totally different things when it comes to digital distribution.

  • layleeloo #29 7 months ago

    Will it balls

  • Butr0sButr0s #30 7 months ago

    Concerning people who don't have internet - there's no reason a company couldn't make a digital game vending machine. You bring in your usb key or SD card, select the game you want, it downloads to the card, then you then dump it on your hard drive when you get home. I would beat waiting in line at best buy or gamestop.

  • steagz #31 7 months ago

    @Butr0sButr0s

    yup but how stupid would that be.

    right listen up gamers who do not have internet connections. we do not sell games as boxed copies anymore. for all offline gamers we are introducing vending machines were you take a usb stick and download the game you want. BECAUSE THIS MAKES MORE SENSE THAN JUST SELLING YOU THE GAME IN THE BOX

    Lmfao just imagine it.

  • steagz #32 7 months ago

    basically it is never gonna happen.

    selling somebody a games console without a disc drive is like selling somebody a brand new car with no wheels then giving them a lifetime lasting bus pass to travel about

  • Toothball #33 7 months ago

    @-cerberus-

    Physical media is not infallible though. People talk about hardware failure or removal of services as if they were inevitable, but it's just as likely that your game shelf could be lost to natural disaster or burglary.

  • Butr0sButr0s #34 7 months ago

    @steagz Except a game machine doesn't require a box, shipping, employees, printed manual, a system for returns/exchanges, or a set location. Look at how well redbox has been doing while blockbuster has gone under.


    If and when media goes 100% digital, and there are no boxes, this would at least be "AN" option for those without reliable highspeed internet.

  • mr_pink #35 7 months ago

    There's a place for both, but thankfully boxed sales won't go away. The last game I bought was the Dark Souls CE, which had a lovely printed art book (don't give me any of that plastic crap). This is the kind of game I pay full price for on release day, almost everything else I grab 2nd hand or get in a Steam sale. As long as boxed copies are offering physical incentives and reduced price over digital downloads I don't think their popularity will wane significantly.