Xbox Live Arcade hasn't peaked - analysts

By Robert Purchese Published 5 October, 2011

"But MS should look at Ron Carmel's piece."

Has Xbox Live Arcade really peaked, as World of Goo creator Ron Carmel yesterday argued? No, analysts have told Eurogamer.

"But Microsoft should take a look at Ron Carmel's piece," declared Billy Pidgeon of M2 Research, "which eloquently makes the case (and backs it up with data) that XBLA has peaked for a specific group of independent developers who are responsible for high quality games that outsell the average XBLA game.

"Sony is acquiring more unique content for PSN, and in many cases it's exclusive content, which will cost Sony more but will clearly differentiate their online games store from XBLA and other competition."

"In terms of digital games delivered through a home console, Microsoft will continue to be the market leaders," stated Jesse Divnich of EEDAR.

"I am not disagreeing with Mr. Carmel, I believe some of his points are valid and any digital service provider has its own restrictions and hurdles. Not every game is the right fit for every service.

"We certainly are seeing some fracturing among developers, and Xbox Live and PSN are no longer the only option for game distribution."

"That doesn't sound right to me," said Michael Pachter of Wedbush Morgan, responding to Carmel's claim. "If anything, there are more titles than ever, but we haven't had a Braid or Limbo so far this year.

"As the 360 price comes down and the installed base continues to grow, there should be a significantly larger addressable market for XBLA games, so I think it continues to grow."

Ron Carmel surveyed 200 independent developers. His results, which he admitted weren't sacrosanct, showed dwindling support for Xbox Live Arcade. Part of this is due to laborious XBLA constraints. The other part can be attributed to the rise of PC, Mac, iOS and Android gaming. Billy Pidgeon said that "viable alternative marketplaces" are "good news for developers and gamers both". Whereas Xbox Live Arcade and PSN are "predictable", he said, other markets can be "risky".

"Indie games are like indie songs: most of them suck, but the ones that don't are unique and deserve to be bought, played, talked about, discovered and awarded."

Billy Pidgeon, analyst, M2 Research

Divnich said the investment in social and mobile gaming "is not necessarily at the cost of XBLA and PSN titles". There's greater flexibility there, but "the recipe for success is not as established".

"Of all the online games markets," added Pidgeon, "I think Steam may have the best offering for gaming enthusiasts so far. The PC is the ideal platform with the most reach, Steam's timed specials help games sell more but hedge price erosion, and it's a great experience for gamers who use it.

"Nintendo's online shops are getting better, but still have a long way to go. The App Store has got great reach, but the best games get lost in the crap and rapid price erosion is a given. Android download stores are the worst, with all the downsides of the App Store and none of the upside due to fragmentation."

Apple has made iOS an easy platform to develop and publish for. One of Ron Carmel's suggestions was for Microsoft to make every Xbox 360 a dev kit, and relax the submission process so that more content can get through. Xbox Live Indie Games already does this, to a degree.

"The Xbox Live Indie Games market seems a waste of a good opportunity," Pidgeon went on to say. "What should be a showcase for indie games is more like a swap meet.

"It's worthwhile to let anybody make a game with XNA, but there should be a 'top shelf' for the best independent games. Indie games are like indie songs: most of them suck, but the ones that don't are unique and deserve to be bought, played, talked about, discovered and awarded."

Nicholas Lovell from Gamesbrief, in a lengthy dissection of Ron Carmel's piece, accused Microsoft of "artificially trying to restrict consumers to a limited number of choices, similar to a retail store". Whereas Carmel had hope Microsoft could turn it around, Lovell isn't so sure.

"Ron is relatively upbeat about the future, if Microsoft adopts some of his ten-point plan. I am less so," Lovell wrote. "I think that the company is stuck trying to recreate the limitations of the physical distribution market, rather than embracing the opportunities created by the digital market.

"I was going to say that I hope that I am wrong, but I'm not sure that's entirely true. The sooner the world becomes more open, the better."

Picture of Robert.

About Robert Purchese

Bertie is Eurogamer's Senior Staff Writer. When he's not hunting down news stories he's often found playing with his kids or gabbling about fantasy games and strange online worlds. @Clert on Twitter.

Read more articles from Robert by visiting the Robert Purchese archive page.

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Comments (37) Latest comment 8 months ago

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  • woodnotes #1 8 months ago

    XBLA is still the superior platform by miles thanks to the back-catalogue, but nothing has made me swoon with excitement since LIMBO. This year's Summer of Arcade line-up didn't excite me much either. Not that there's anything exciting me on PSN either.

  • GamesConnoisseur #2 8 months ago

    Yes there are interesting food for thoughts in the article, Sony is on the right track but still is behind a lot of more desirable platforms and just one placing ahead of Microsoft.

    Competition is great, as its Darwin's evolution in practice, survival of the fittest. Those with the best features to adapt to the emerging environment will do better than others. So will MS sticks to their policies and how will this affect the qualities of games on the marketplace? To date, XBLA still produces a lot of gems but can it maintain that in years ahead and when next gen arrives?

  • Shinetop #3 8 months ago

    I love that quote by Pidgeon about the similarities between indie games and indie songs.

  • gandhimaster #4 8 months ago

    Do we think MS has decided that XBLA can "do one" now as they are about to announce a new console?

    Like they did with the original Xbox? Just killed it right there and then?

    I hope not!

  • Monkey_Puncher #5 8 months ago

    Fez will be the next massive indie hit on XBLA, that game looks incredible!

  • Dizzy #6 8 months ago

    Spelunky. Nuff said.

  • Xboxfanuk #7 8 months ago

    Cysis is releasing directly to Games on Demand. This is a huge and important step for digital distribution because the PC port is skipping retail altogether. This will likely open the door for others to release digital only with full retail content that isn't just XBLA. I could even imagine a day when Games on Demand will see day and date releases with budget titles then AAA.

  • Subdominator #8 8 months ago

    Developer that has only made one game and ported it to every platform in existence rants about XBLA on the same day that he announces his only game for Android platforms. If this doesn't smell like marketing I don't know what does.

    However the main problem with Xbox Live Indie Games are the developers themselfs. The best were on the service day 1 and then left because they didn't make millions. But you have to build such a service with great games, you can't just profit from day 1. And nowadays the great indie games that are announced for XBLIG get developer blogs and lots of PR and stuff - and when it comes to release they take an XBLA contract and are never to be seen again on XBLIG. If they'd have the guts to actually release a great game on XBLIG they'd be surprised how good it sells. I'm talking about the Shanks, Duality ZFs, Zeit2s, ...

    Games like Fortresscraft show that you can actually make money on the service. The whole complaining about XBLIG seems to come from the fact that indies don't know how the business works. It has always been that 5 % of the games make 90 % of the income. It's like that everywhere, be it movies, music or books. The rest barely, if ever, makes it out without a loss. So with something like XBLIG it's supposed to have 95 % of developers not satisfied with what they make. But that's not the problem of the service, that's just how the economy works. That's why developers started long gone publisher Gathering of Developers, so that indies could self-publish and finance each other, sort of like a social system. But XBLIG never came their, instead developers were jealous of other developers because their own games sold worse than the competitor's massage tools. Well, part of developing games is market analysis and finding the niche that could generate a demand. Twin stick shooter 1783 might be the better game, but it's probably not a better experience than a massage tool because you've played it twenty times before.

    I do agree that the games on XBLA have become somewhat bland. Limbo was the last title I bought as well. I remember back in 2007 I bought nearly every second release on XBLA. But now with the generally higher price points (basically everything that was 400 went to 800 and 800 became 1200) I am much more reluctant to buy stuff. I wouldn't say the games are worse nowadays, they aren't just as interesting at the current prices and I have no interest in getting a gold membership just to get two or three great deals of the week. Which are probably also part of the problem, why should you buy a game at release when you can get it for much less a couple of weeks later (if you're a gold subscriber)?

    Personally I wouldn't say I buy less on Xbox Live. It shifted from XBLA games to XBLIG and now to DLC and HD movies. Heck, even Avatar content.

  • RodHull #9 8 months ago

    Carmel's survey made interesting reading, but I am puzzled in regard to his motivation for doing so. Microsoft may have a laborious certification process, but it remains popular amongst many developers and we the gamers continue to benefit from high quality games on the XBLA service. Carmel's somewhat preachy stance has the air of a developer scorned.

  • Subdominator #10 8 months ago

    Oh, and when Trials Evolution releases later this year 2D Boys words will be put to shame.

  • GamesProgrammer Verified Games Team Programmer, Eutechnyx Ltd. #11 8 months ago

    @XboxFanUK

    Crysis isnt skipping retail, it was meant to be a download only release, its only in the Games On Demand instead of the MarketPlace, because its over 2 gig in size, for some reason, Market Place cant cope with files that big.

    If this was a brand new title i might agree with you that its an important step, but its a port of a very old title.

  • Subdominator #12 8 months ago

    I wouldn't be so sure about size being the sole reason. After all as a game on demand it can have 1000 gamerscore, as an XBLA game only 200. And MS takes a higher percentage from XBLA games than from games on demand (30 % instead of 20 %) due to the lower visibility on the service.

  • yoomazir #13 8 months ago

    My goodness, Limbo & Braid were just a bunch of pretentious games, and people are saying they've never found any other xbla game to play since then? I smell BULLSHIT.

  • Shadders #14 8 months ago

    MS should make XBLA games run on Windows through GFWL, would solve a lot of Ron Caramel's problems.

  • evild_edd #15 8 months ago

    When people criticise something as pretentious what they actually mean is that they didn't understand it. It's fine to not enjoy something, that's called having an opinion. The mistake is thinking that your opinion should be the default option.

    I don't pity people who are beneath the charms of Braid and Limbo, I pity those who then go on to claim that everyone who rightly enjoyed them is somehow snobbish or pretending to have enjoyed the titles.

    If your criticism of Braid and Limbo is that their art style or narrative was striving for something beyond pointing a cursor over an enemy and pressing fire (a la CoD) then I welcome pretentiousness. Aiming for something more than brain-dead fodder should be applauded, not sneered at.

  • Shinetop #16 8 months ago

    When people criticise something as pretentious what they actually mean is that they didn't understand it. It's fine to not enjoy something, that's called having an opinion. The mistake is thinking that your opinion should be the default option.


    Feeling that something is brilliant is a valid opinion to have. Feeling that something is pretentious is an equally valid opinion to have. The mistake is dismissing someone's opinion as "they just don't understand it" and thinking that these people are somehow less than you for having this opinion.
    Edited by Shinetop at 05/10/11 @ 12:34

  • Shinetop #17 8 months ago

    Also, there are plenty of games that strive for something beyond pointing a cursor over an enemy and pressing fire, but do so without employing the style that some people feel is "pretentious." Why you think people who dislike this style are somehow all braindead shooter fanatics is beyond me.

  • coolbritannia #18 8 months ago

    First off, back the fuck away from Limbo and Braid, they're both miniature examples of gaming perfection. Anything that can get my gf involved with gaming and still retain my attention is brilliance.

    Secondly, M$ won't abandon XBLA, the brand is too well known, and like Apple products, gamers have an investment through XBLA that ties over into wider xbox brand loyalty.

  • TudeScud #19 8 months ago

    @evill_dd Oh, brother. It's not for lack of understanding. It's apathy. You may have background knowledge of the context applied in Braid or feel the emotional subtext of Limbo, but it doesn't necessarily make them better games for it.

    Let us not forget that some people play games for gameplay (shocking, I know) and in terms of replay value, neither of these games have much going for them.

  • Toothball #20 8 months ago

    @evild_edd

    It's fine to not enjoy something, that's called having an opinion. The mistake is thinking that your opinion should be the default option.

    That's what gets me every time someone decides that a game or whatever is 'overrated'. Apparently it's not enough for them to dislike the subject matter, so they have to claim that everyone else is wrong for liking it.

  • dean0null #21 8 months ago

    "If your criticism of Braid and Limbo is that their art style or narrative was striving for something beyond pointing a cursor over an enemy and pressing fire (a la CoD) then I welcome pretentiousness. Aiming for something more than brain-dead fodder should be applauded, not sneered at."

    What does Call of Duty have to do with not liking a game?

  • Roarster #22 8 months ago

    You don't have to be an analyst to tell that Microsoft have less interest in the bedroom coder style of indie games and now see the service as more of a home for cut down games from the big publishers. I doubt the XBLA will fail but you'll see less unusual games and more middle of the road big sellers as time goes on. Whether that makes the service better or worse really depends on what sort of gamer you are but I doubt the money men at Microsoft will care about losing the next Jon Blow game when they can replace it with huge sellers like Battlefield 1943 and the Dead Rising spin offs.

  • Collymilad #23 8 months ago

    Sorry but am I missing something?

    As far as I can see, the XBLA has a lot of games and they cover a wide range of genres. Many of them are also unique and exclusive.

    If XBLA has a problem then so does PSN.

  • Ranger101 #24 8 months ago

    XBLA spending money on Treasure HD re-releases makes Microsoft kings in my book.
    Ikaruga, Radiant Silvergun, Guardian Heroes, Bangai-Oh. Glad someone's giving them money and keeping them alive! Especially as PS3 is the japanese company, you'd think they would've been funding them

  • Ranger101 #25 8 months ago

    @Roarster


    Erm... you are so wrong it's ridiculous. Developer support for XBIG games keeps on improving as time goes on. With the ability to compile for PC, XBOX and now WinMo7, it will continue to grow. The success of Windows Mobile 7 hitches on XNA developers, and MS have been making sure we're well catered for.

  • Roarster #26 8 months ago

    @djclownshoes And every week there's another XBIG developer complaining about the lack of support they get from MS and how they are considering leaving the program.

    Anyway, XBIG is different from XBLA which the original comments from Ron Carmel refer to. The fact that small developers are finding it harder to get on XBLA shows a pretty clear change of approach to me. I'm not putting XBLA down, I just think it's obvious that as it's became more successful MS have made it harder for the two man self-funded outfits to get approved and they've prioritised the larger, publisher funded games.

  • Shinetop #27 8 months ago

    I love, by the way, how people who experience some games as pretentious are dismissed with "You're just not capable of understanding the brilliance of it like I can", which is the very definition of pretentiousness. Some people might want to take a long, painful look in the mirror.
    Edited by Shinetop at 05/10/11 @ 14:39

  • DreamT #28 8 months ago

    I don't think Braid and Limbo are better than other XBLA games at all. This year will have a big seller though. Trials: Evolution.

  • BuckEntropy #29 8 months ago

    I'm a little surprised this BS is being treated so seriously, and the way this article presents it is somewhat contradictory and ambiguous. Carmel's points are entirely from a whiny dev agenda (if not vendetta) - like being forced to come up with a logo for a virtual T-shirt or something is just such an unspeakable hardship - and some selected comments by the "analysts" come across equally presumptive. As much as I love games like Braid and Limbo, the way they're being wielded as examples is actually pretentious, as though the artsy prestige of the available games is the defining factor in the question of the service's 'relevance'.

    So basically because Sony has Thatgamecompany and PixelJunk under their wing, people go out of their way to judge the competition by it's lack of direct answers to their efforts. Or indeed, even by it's 'lack' of 1:1 platform policy features, again seeming presumptive that Sony's model is superior without any holistic explanation of justification given for the presumption.

    Jesus if you include the Gameroom (not exactly a feather in the cap I know) and GoD MS has actually provided four completely different venues / content models for digital delivery, with clearly understandable distinctions... and people try to say they're "resting on their laurels?" It's great the PSN store and Nintendo and everyone else are doing their own thing, that's the point of competition after all, but as usual MS will be catching it from both ends no matter what they do. At least in the bubble of these enthusiast forums, whatever tactics Sony employs to secure exclusives and success are automatically righteous, yet anything MS does to serve and protect their own best interests is automatically nefarious. The moment anything on XBLA gets a lot of attention, the biggest noise you always hear is all the Sony subjects getting angry that XBOX doesn't deserve to have it anyway.

    Whatever, there's more than enough to recommend any successful venue, and if one has certain trends that some people gravitate to more all the better, that's how it should be. If XBLA doesn't have it's Flower, PixelJunk Eden, Fat Princess or Journey then good on Sony for doing what they're doing, keep it up. At the moment PSN doesn't happen to have it's Rez HD, Toy Soldiers, Monday Night Combat or Treasure games either. As I've said before... aren't choices and variety a good thing?
    Edited by BuckEntropy at 05/10/11 @ 16:25

  • arcam #30 8 months ago

    I love how people who dismiss people who experience some games as pretentious are dismissed with "you're not capable of understanding the word pretentious". They should look in the mirror that the those other people are looking in.

  • Shinetop #31 8 months ago

    Nobody is claiming people don't understand what "pretentious" means. I recommend re-reading and trying again.

  • gav082 #32 8 months ago

    wheres my Trine 2?

  • Machiavellian #33 8 months ago

    Anyway, XBIG is different from XBLA which the original comments from Ron Carmel refer to. The fact that small developers are finding it harder to get on XBLA shows a pretty clear change of approach to me. I'm not putting XBLA down, I just think it's obvious that as it's became more successful MS have made it harder for the two man self-funded outfits to get approved and they've prioritised the larger, publisher funded games.

    Small developers have always found it hard to get on XBLA because you have to have a publisher in order to get your game on XBLA. MS has never really catered to indies on XBLA. If you came to MS and wanted to get your game on XBLA, two things happen. MS would publish your game if they thought it fit the service or you needed to find a publisher who is willing to publish your game. If MS publish your game, then they want it exclusive. If someone else publish your game they want it at the same time as any other system gets the game. MS has never been out their to please the indie developers but instead to grow XBLA and the service. This is the reason why they probably will not change their policy unless there is enough competition from competing services to warrant a change.

  • spongebob #34 8 months ago

    I have to say I don't get the Limbo hype. I thought it was atmospheric, artsy in a good way and visually uncompromising, but as a game it left me wanting a whole lot more.

  • Gastrian #35 8 months ago

    Post deleted at 17:56:43 13-04-2012

  • 32768Colours #36 8 months ago

    This is a very important discussion, and while I think XBLA is a great - if sometimes expensive - service, I still have to ask...

    Billy Pidgeon?! :D

  • cyber_nicco #37 8 months ago

    He didn't back it up with any data. He said HE surveyed 200 developers, which I think is bullshit anyway. Why did he wake up one morning and decide to survey these companies to make a point. Furthermore, why would his competitors tell him which platforms they liked, therefor most likely to develp for?

    All bullshit. Okay, he has about two good points. The rest is bullshit.