AMD: Next Xbox capable of Avatar visuals
AI and physics to see vast improvements.
Technology company AMD reckons the next Xbox will be so powerful it will be capable of reproducing graphics on a par with James Cameron's movie blockbuster Avatar.
AMD, rumoured to be providing the graphics technology powering the next Xbox, said in the latest issue of the US version of the Official Xbox Magazine (reported by the Examiner) gamers should expect radical improvements to AI and physics.
Director of ISV relationships at AMD, Neal Robison, said the unannounced console will allow developers to make every pedestrian in a game such as Grand Theft Auto or Saints Row have a totally individual mentality so they react to the player in different ways.
Crowds will reportedly act as individuals rather than predictable mobs.
The Xbox 360 uses AMD's ATI Xenos to power its visuals. AMD refused to confirm whether it was working on the next Xbox.
Last month id Software programming legend John Carmack told Eurogamer the next generation of consoles will be ten times as powerful as the current generation.
Before that, Unreal Engine maker Epic Games released a real-time demo called Samaritan, below, it hopes provides a glimpse into the future of home console visuals.
The next Xbox is rumoured to be set for an E3 2012 reveal.
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Comments (94) Latest comment 10 months ago
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*feels old*
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Avatar like gfx my brown eye.
How about 1080p/60fps and properly destructible scenery with no slowdown then we might just about have lived up to the hype of the last 'next gen'.
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I just hope that everyone remembers to focus on good stories and gameplay for the next gen too. Graphics arent everything!!
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what a load of crap.
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I would laugh at anyone else saying that next console gen will have CGI graphics, but not the tech company itself. That unreal demo was working on 3 GTX580's. Only one of the soon to be released ATI cards could run that amount of power, based only on the specs involved.
Again, because AMD is saying it, i'll give them a benefit of a doubt
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runs
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i find it depressing to use the ''on par'' phrase we can see where technology has reached and how much we have to wait for it to become affordable, waiting two more years for something to be supposedly on par with something created two years back...its a serious gap.
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Just playing GTA4 again as never got around to finishing it - damn is that game better with one of the vehicle handling mods installed so a family saloon doesn't feel like it weighs 10 tons and rolls over when a child farts on the pavement as you drive past. That's poor tuning affecting gameplay not lack of physics grunt.
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Is a bit absurd due next gen of consoles wil not match a Triple GTX 580 configuration, and at the same time is absurd to do it if other engines provide better results with a ton less power required.l
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So one might tell me to fuck off, while other says piss off?
Hmmm... can't wait!
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For all the hype that Sony built up about the PS2 and its power, they never actually said that it could do Toy Story graphics.
For the record, that was Microsoft, talking about the original Xbox.
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Your choice of movies aside, it was a reference to ingame graphics. Something that has only (kind of) been achieved by something like Infamous 2 - at a stretch.
As for the sods who neg me, face it, you spend too much on consoles that go out of fashion as soon as they achieve the potential they were meant to. Unless your chavs who nick everything you own. Oh well, time to trade in my Xbox 360 whilst I can get a good price.
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Samaritan Tech Demo shows what is possible with current (2011) technology. And no Battlefield 3 does not look better. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=j27btQnnows
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None of that is likely to be showing up in games, but if you look at the various effects company showreels on the Blu Ray bonus features, all the mechs and dropships and stuff, even the jungle and creatures aren't necessarily all that difficult to replicate - I've always thought those dog-things looked very videogame-y.
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Jeez - Jimbo Cameron is probably feeling pretty daft right now splashing out million$ on all those fancy render farms when he could have just used a Nextbox...
All we need now is a 10 year development time and half a billion $ budget per game and we're sorted.
Personally I just want 10x horse armour and even more massive damage to crabs.
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I lol'd.....alot.
Oh and by the way..even with 32k Cpu cores, individual frames still took hours to render in some cases...
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Seriously, they think we're fools?
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Maybe not as an image or pre-rendered video, but they are impossible to replicate in real-time on a home computer.
This is article is stupid, it's the kind of thing the non-specialist media say, EG should know better.
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More Blahs to the hype bonfire
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Seriously though, the next Xbox will be based on current DX11 PC graphics technology (likely the NVIDIA GTX 560 or AMD HD6870 albeit die-shrunk several times from the original chips to reduce power consumption and heat) so by the time it arrives it'll already have been succeeded by newer technology on the PC that is several times more powerful. I doubt that even such a PC of that time will be capable of rendering Avatar visuals in real-time either for games so the consoles certainly won't. Maybe in ten years time they will but the next Xbox will released long before then.
Anyway, we'll see how true AMD's claims really are. Personally, I'll take it to mean that next gen games will finally be free of hideous screen tearing, framerate issues and jaggies since I didn't recall seeing any of those issues in Avatar!
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You're right. You made me go and have a look though, and I was surprised at how similar the visuals of FF: The Spirits Within are to Mass Effect.
For example, if you released this shot as Mass Effect 3, it wouldn't look out of place at all.
The biggest visual difference between ME and the FF movie is the characters' hair.
So, in rough terms; consoles that are 5/6 years old are almost capable of matching pre rendered that's 10 years old. But it takes developers about 4 years to squeeze it out of the hardware. Therefore, my very unscientific calculations say we can look at movies made today, and expect those kind of visuals on the latest console generation in 8 years.
My guess: Almost Avatar level visuals towards the end of the next generation's prime; so maybe this guy is right.
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You made my day
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You complain about Microsoft making unrealistic projections, then proceed to make completely baseless predictions on a product that hasn't even been designed yet.
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"To render Avatar, Weta used a 10,000 sq ft (930 m2) server farm making use of 4,000 Hewlett-Packard servers with 35,000 processor cores running Ubuntu Linux and the Grid Engine cluster manager. The render farm occupies the 193rd to 197th spots in the TOP500 list of the world's most powerful supercomputers. A new texturing and paint software system called Mari, was developed by The Foundry in cooperation with Weta. Creating the Na'vi characters and the virtual world of Pandora required over a petabyte of digital storage, and each minute of the final footage for Avatar occupies 17.28 gigabytes of storage."
They're really going to put that kind of power into a small device the size of a console? I don't care who said it, it just ain't going to happen in the next few years. And like many have said, the development costs to make full use of such hardware will be seriously prohibitive.
Of course if this would be true, James Cameron wouldn't need such a huge budget for his next avatar film, he'd just spring for an xbox and voila!
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Its not just MS but the industry as a whole. More knowldegeable folk have commented on how this claim is pure BS and EG felt like reporting it. Journalism? No just more mindless PR. But hey, who cares right?
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Seriously? A name pisstake? What are you, seven?
I don't know if you get how news works, someone says something, it gets reported.
There aren't many reliable calls on where the future is going, but AMD are likely to be as accurate as anyone given they make the processors and graphics chips.
Also. I recall that when Antz was made it took a huge computer a day to render one frame. A few years later a set of PS2 CPU's in sync could render it in real time. It won't be AS good as the film, but clearly this is a marker they are aiming towards.
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Calm down dear. All I want are better games that are fully utilising hardware not an expensive update that makes me feel like a mug. PC gaming is pressing ahead in leaps and bounds, its just a shame the community isnt as big as console gaming. If MS can pull it off then it doesnt mean that gaming will improve.
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Technically they can't match it but i bet that majority won't care or see the difference without pixel counters.
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Although I see what you are saying, the image you linked isn't representative of the film's normal visuals when watching on HD download or Blu-ray; like I did recently in PSN's welcome back for free. The biggest difference is the levels of sub division, sub surface light scattering(for skin), the animation and the hair, true HDR lighting, indirect lighting and shadow softness.
imo Spirits within is still visual stunning for cgi(and visually superior than the newer, but also good Resident Evil: Degeneration cgi film offered in the Welcome back) and both visibly superior to Epic's demo.
But on topic, PC or console graphics at Degeneration's level would be quite some feat still, which I'm sure can be achieved today on a modest sized render farm of Cell's (PS3 linux boxes) in real-time. But even if next generation does go ray-tracing, they need to aim lower than that. Slight better fidelity world modelling than this generation, but photon/ray-traced at 720p60 will still be an amazing step up imo.
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This isn't as much of a stretch as Toy Story PS2 graphics or the emotion engine launching space shuttles.
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Or more likely, they'll make the cars shinier.
The day developers start putting AI before graphics will be the day that there is literally nowhere else to go visually. Given that even Avatar is unlikely to be the high water mark for graphics, I think we've got a way to go yet.
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You're right of course; it's pretty much why I added the caveat "almost".
The big differences between CG film and real time are the techniques used. With CG you can afford to do things 'properly', with accurate HDR and lighting and shadow models. The goal of the engineers who write the renderers is accuracy. Render time barely comes into it.
In real time you have to pull as many tricks as you can to make something look ~90% right. Under the hood it's best guessing, and making trade-offs at every opportunity. Unlike CG, the goal is to make it look as accurate as possible, within a crazily tiny amount of time.
For that reason, real time will never be exactly like CG film; because it would be wasteful. If getting the lighting 95% right can be done in .33ms, but getting it 100% right takes 5 minutes, or 1000x the processing power, then it isn't a trade off that will ever make sense.
As des inferred; you couldn't do the FF movie precisely in real time, but you could perhaps make it look close enough for most people.
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In other words, on the same level as today's high-end PC.
We already knew that.
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Every time news like this pops up, my heart sinks a little bit more.
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And games will still not look like that old Final Fantasy movie, let alone Avatar.
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And games will still not look like that old Final Fantasy movie, let alone Avatar.
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I agree with what you are saying about the diminishing returns of getting it perfect in real-time as a trade off, but that will also be true; even of console photon/ray tracing (lower number of bounces) compared to cgi(and that compared to nature).
The main differences, is that in current console techniques you need a lot less (cheap) computing power and more expensive software engineers and artists to fake things to 75% of entry level photon/ray tracing using rasterization.
Eventually I expect hardware to catch up, where the financial equation will shift so that game development will use the fast & cheap computing power of the day, but with fewer engineers(because photon/ray-tracing will be relatively generic and recursive) freeing the same number of artists/designers from tweaking and faking things, to refocus fully on populating those game worlds with assets and gameplay.
Even if the computation equipment cost twice as much for photon/ray-tracing now, the cost of wages is the expensive part of game development, and anything that can keep team sizes from growing or reducing, while increasing production is likely to get green lit quite quickly imo.
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They have never bragged about their consoles power that much, this is a Sony trait first over hyping the ps2 and then the ps3 hype, which has left many gamers disappointed with the 30 fps and 720p games most console titles produce this generation.
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Crysis 2 DX11 mostly ultra settings, Crysis 1 same, GTA 4 mostly ultra settings, Shogun 2 maxed, Starcraft 2 maxed, COD maxed, BF2 maxed, Batman maxed, SSF4: AE maxed, Portal 2 maxed. Metro 2033 mostly maxed without tessellation.
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I love new stuff!
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maybe im just a cynic, but developers/exec's are usually always daydreaming and blowing their own trumpet... so, this kind of speech usually goes unnoticed.
Please, everyone remember this: the next Xbox3/PS4 will be based on tech that is about to be released on the PC (yup), and I can tell you its not that mindblowing. Its just a graphical evolution. It wont be "Alien tech from the future"... and from what im seeing, Avatar's visuals will not be possible on home-machines in the near future. keep dreaming
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Didn't think so.
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Wouldn't surprise me if the next Xbox was 10x the power of the current model thats quite reasonable. I'm expecting Sony to deliver a less powerful console next time around, something smaller, more stylish and lower cost. Probably sitting in the middle of Wii U performance and next Xbox performance.
It seems as technology progresses less and less games make full use of the technology available. In the days of the super nintendo and megadrive most games near enough maxed out the hardware but with the 32bit 3D consoles a greater percentage of games didn't require full performance. Now with small downloadable games often a huge percentage of games just don't use the hardware much at all.
Often the most powerful console gets overlooked too. In the time of the xbox, gamecube and ps2 many xbox games were little better than ps2 and gamecube versions because the games were written with the weakest platform in mind so the game engine would run on ps2.
Nintendo have shown repeatedly that consumers aren't obsessed with power. Their DS models, wii, 3DS and probably Wii U are underpowered designs and generally sell in huge numbers.
Sony basically screwed themselves this generation with the ps3. They probably could have made a lot more money if they'd actually produced a console somewhere between wii and 360 in power. Instead they produced something far too ambitious and expensive and have come last this generation so far because they couldn't compete on price.
The point is next generation will be scaled back and while I feel Microsoft will push the technology more than anyone it will still be far less ambitious than their earlier designs.
If Microsoft produce an expensive bulky console capable of very high performance they will probably fail next generation. They should aim for the right price point and max out the hardware for that price point and not go beyond it. If that means 4-6x performance instead of 10-12x performance then they should go with 4-6x performance.
A good launch price for a console in the uk is about £250 and then within a reasonable time they can get to £199 and then below that for the main lifetime of the console.
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No. The Samaritan Tech Demo shows barely half dozen of characters in a small environment made of adamantium, not-interactive environments, in a scripted sequence with laughlable facial animations. Battlefield 3 moves 64 players for ground, sea and air in huge, fully destructible environments with better animations, and you can bet that isn't limited to 30 fps cutscenes, but solid 60 fps with a single GPU configurations.
In fact Samaritan Tech Demo doesn't show any new for the market: Bokeh deep of field? CryEngine checked. Subsurface scattering? CryEngine checked. Tessellation? CryEngine checked. Reflections with shadows, parrallax mapping, soft shadows? CryEngine checked... all of them currently in Crysis 2. And Frostbite 2.0 looks and moves even better than CE3 or UE 3.975
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An individual frame of Avatar took up to 2 days to render. ONE frame. On a render farm. To say that current PC technology can do in realtime what the most technologically advanced filmmakers need months to do is absurd.
Also lets think... most current gen games are 30fps 720p, next gen you'll probably want 1080p as standard and hopefully 60fps as well... twice the res X times the framerate. Four times the data. Then double that with 3D. Eight times the data. Not much overhead if you're working with hardware ten times that of current gen and you're looking to create Avatar.
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@ Bozo
In terms of pricing, you pay for what you get. It's why i bought a Wii, decided it was only a novelty and not one that grabbed me so i have always been much happier with the "hardcore gamers" machines and this will not change so i woul drather pay more and get the jump rather than a novelty unit with games aimed at children and non gamers.
Oh and rememer the SNES that was over £300 when it was released. And that was then.
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I remember when a graphics benchmark was 16 colours.
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Interesting point about the cost of artists going down as realism increases; with them spending less time trying to fake realism. Though that might be taken up again by the expectancy of higher fidelity in the unreal stuff; such as architecture, and character design.
Change of topic: I can't see AI improving all that much, no matter how much power is available.
AI doesn't sell a game anywhere near as well as graphics do, because it's not so immediate. Therefore, the investment isn't and hasn't been there from devs/publishers. So there aren't any out of the box solutions that you can just throw more resources at and get 'more AI'.
Like 32768Colours said, until graphics reach some kind of ceiling AI isn't going to improve much. At least not unless some independent comes up with some kind of AI engine they can license out; like PhysX/Havok do for physics. I can't really think how you'd even make such a thing though.
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Dont you mean - gamers WILL expect radical improvments to AI and pysics.
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The Technology isnt there yet neither the Software or the understanding of how the human brain really works has been cracked yet.
What you see in Games is just FakeI not AI.
PS. What they need to work on other than animation is Clothing and Hair Physics.
but once again the Software isnt there yet.
(even in offline rendering for movies the cloth/hair physics have to be manually tweaked by humans or else they crash or glitch out.)
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