Mobile tech to overtake PS3, 360 soon

By Wesley Yin-Poole Published 8 July, 2011

In two years, reckons John Carmack.

Mobile phones will in two years be more powerful than the current generation of consoles, programming legend John Carmack has said.

But, as of now, the power of mobile tech is "exaggerated", the id Software co-founder told IndustryGamers.

"It's unquestionable that within a very short time, we're going to have portable cell phones that are more powerful than the current-gen consoles," Carmack predicted

"People have exaggerated the relative powers - the iPad2 is not more powerful than the 360. It's still a factor of a couple weaker.

"But the fact that it's gotten that close that fast - that means that almost certainly, two years from now, there will be mobile devices more powerful than what we're doing all these fabulous games on right now."

At E3 last month Carmack, who is applying the finishing touches to upcoming first-person shooter Rage, told Eurogamer mobile phones may eventually be powerful enough to act as home consoles.

"People's telephones could be their home console, and it just beams over to the TV set when they're there and they want that experience," he said. "Do we want these separate walled gardens: here's what we've got on our PC, here's what we've got on our console, here's what we've got on our mobile phone?

"There's at least an argument that you wind up carrying around enough processing power with you to satisfy all of those and you dock them into different things."

Picture of Wesley.

About Wesley Yin-Poole

Wesley is Eurogamer's news editor. He likes news, interviews, and more news. He also likes Street Fighter more than anyone can get him to shut up about it.

Read more articles from Wesley by visiting the Wesley Yin-Poole archive page.

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Comments (48) Latest comment 11 months ago

Comments for this article are now closed, but please feel free to continue chatting on the forum!

  • carrotcake #1 11 months ago

    @DcP729UK if you read further in, he talks about docking your mobile when you get home to do it big screen

  • Eisenstein #2 11 months ago

    So between now and 2014 some miracle tech makes it into mobile phones that doesn't use much power and generates nearly no heat? Because current mobile tech and the stuff Nvidia, AMD, Intel and ARM propose doesn't really support this claim. in another 3-4 years added to the 2 years, sure. But then home consoles are another generation ahead, PCs another 2-3.

  • PinktotheLast #3 11 months ago

    The quicker that people get this idea out of their heads that smartphones are really just fancy phones, the better. In terms of how I use my smartphone, direct communication is probably a maximum of 5% of its usage.

    'Smartphones' so called, will only get more powerful, and more sophisticated; capable of a greater number of things, so that they become the 'defacto' PC, the primary computing device for the vast majority.

    Just observe the trajectory. App-enabled smartphones as they exist today are pretty much only 3-4 years old. Imagine where theyll be in another 4 years!

  • Lexx87 #4 11 months ago

    No no Pink sensible argument and thought doesn't work here. Rash unhelpful responce or nothing!

  • Jolly_Armadillo #5 11 months ago

    Won't replace home consoles without proper control inputs. Buttons, sticks, triggers, bumpers etc. Etc.

    Touchscreen on it's own is not substantial enough to control home console games. I don't see many phones having these inputs built in as they lose their sleek attractive look.

    Obviously I'm not saying no phone will ever have these inputs, but just without them it can't replace home consoles.

  • anthonypappa #6 11 months ago

    doesn't really matter, does it?

    they will cost much more than a ps3 or 360 does, even now... in 2 years, they will cost much more than the current consoles - and it would been wasted on a tiny screen anyway...

  • BOFH_UK #7 11 months ago

    @DcP729UK: Then you're in luck, later this year OnLive is coming to both iOS and Android with a bluetooth controller. The gaming experience you prefer AND a mobile phone for communications, perfect!

    Seriously though folks, what is it with the hostility towards mobile gaming from some quarters? Right now it's an interesting alternative or supplement to traditional mobile consoles with a whole range of software from casual to in-depth 'hardcore' titles. The hardware is improving in leaps and bounds, just compare what Apple are putting in the iPad 2 to, say, the iPhone 3G. Only two and a half years between them but a ridiculous jump in performance. Wireless tech is getting to the point of being able to support streaming from these devices to big screens (and, indeed, the WiiU is built around that concept). If a phone (or tablet or media player) is capable of running the games you want to play and throw them to practicaly any screen you choose complete with a wireless controller then, IMO, that sounds just about perfect.

  • utterdrivel #8 11 months ago

    Erm. LOL IPADS

    NO BUTTONS LOL ANGRY BIRDS APPLE SHEEP

    Am I doing this right?

  • DavidBoring #9 11 months ago

    but will ubisofts ueber-advanced future KI run on it?

  • TechnicPuppet #10 11 months ago

    Soon a point will be reached when mobiles are powerful enough for most uses. Laptops for example reached this state a couple of years ago. 99% of people just need to think about screen size, style and whether they would like it to use discs and then buy the cheapest one they find that suits them. No need to worry about specs or stuff cause they all have wireless and are powerful enough to run Word, The Sims or Farmville which is enough for the majority of people.

    The Motorola Atrix is the future and there is no reason to believe that in 3 or 4 years a mobile couldn't be sitting it your pocket, beaming a wireless signal to your TV and connecting with a couple of controllers at the same time.

  • Anciegher #11 11 months ago

    I recently read about Tegra 4 and it will support up to 8 cores and 64 streaming processors for graphics. Furthermore it will be released at the end of 2012, I think when that device launches we are already at current console tech. Imagine 2 years down the road! Mobile devices will leave the current consoles in the dust. That is why I think it is crucial for MS/Sony to release new consoles before mobile gaming takes over completely.

  • arcam #12 11 months ago

    That is why I think it is crucial for MS/Sony to release new consoles before mobile gaming takes over completely.

    That's also why I think people are wrong when they say the new consoles should concentrate on price and features, not tech or improved graphics.

    In a few years' time there's gonna be a million different devices people can play cheap, fun games on. Unless consoles keep pushing forward, their whole reason for their existence becomes questionable.

  • Eraser #13 11 months ago

    I usually don't disagree with Carmack, but he seems to forget that in the 2 years it takes mobile devices to "catch up" with current gen console tech, consoles (and more importantly PC) will have advanced even further as well. I think that in 2013 or first half of 2014 we'll be seeing new consoles from Sony and MS.

  • Jolly_Armadillo #14 11 months ago

    @eraser

    He clearly states this generations consoles not upcoming consoles. L2read

  • justMe #15 11 months ago

    The handheld form factor will always be 2 "generations" behind the desktop in terms of processing/graphical power. With the same money you spend on an iPhone you will allays be able to buy a much more powerful desktop/set-top device.

    The apparent catching up is only because of the recent mass market success of the "smartphone", meaning a handheld general purpose device (previously known as a Palm or palmtop).

    It's all a cycle. Many times we tend to lose perspective and make statements like "why would anyone need more power?", but those statements will invariably be answered, and the answer is always obvious after the fact.

    So, no, the smartphone will not replace the dedicated gaming machine.

  • davisorle #16 11 months ago

    Post deleted at 20:44:35 16-04-2012

  • mss99 #17 11 months ago

    Problem with these devices is the input method doesn't work well for many games and the devices tend to cost much more than consoles do. So whilst the technology may overtake the current generation consoles the experience will lag behind until a solution is produced to aid playing these games. Also to my knowledge there aren't really any realtime networked multiplayer games yet for these devices. For the likes of a FPS this would need to be addressed before most console gamers would switch.

  • arcam #18 11 months ago

    Re: storage - Just put an eSATA port on your phone and hook up a hard drive.

    Re: input method - A bluetooth controller that works with your phone?

    Re: expensive 3G - download over Wi-Fi.

    None of these problems are significant obstacles. Yes, a smartphone may cost (a lot) more than a console, but people will be buying one anyway, they won't just choose a console instead.

  • DiamondIce #19 11 months ago

    Until we all live like the Jetsons I really don't care about this so-called technological improvement.

  • Pac-man-ate-my-wife #20 11 months ago

    @mss99

    There are quite a few - the best known examples are the MMORPG Order & Chaos and the FPS Archetype.

  • BuddyChrist #21 11 months ago

    Oh no! Phones getting console functionality? Whatever next? Consoles getting phone functionality?

    So it seems both phones and consoles are dated, and "smartphone" is to unify the two.

    There is no "winning" between the two, only fusion.

  • TechnicPuppet #22 11 months ago

    If apple released a small device that is basically a controller with space to slot in an iphone, it would kill portable consoles forever. Not sure why they have not done this already, seems so easy.

  • anthonypappa #23 11 months ago

    mobile gaming takes over completely? yeah right.

    who is going to want to download 10gb files, employ all these workarounds, hook it up to this and that. these things are supposed to be convenience-based, on the go.

    console and mobile gaming are two different things. a serious gamer will already have a console stationed next to their telly. 'mobile tech' is just that.
    Edited by anthonypappa at 08/07/11 @ 11:30

  • Bahamut_Zero #24 11 months ago

    What, mobile devices from 2013 will be more poweful than consoles from 2005? Woow, that's impressive... NOT!

  • Bikram #25 11 months ago

    I have no problem with any of this.I just need good games to play that's all. After all it's all about games isn't it?

  • Sid-Nice #26 11 months ago

    There’s a lot of scaremongering coming from the video games industry concerning competition from the mobile phone, android and tablet gaming platforms. I believe that the gaming industry are trying to influence Microsoft and Sony into rushing into the next generation of consoles.

  • oupe #27 11 months ago

    Technically possible from a hardware perspective, maybe. From a software/business perspective: dificult. Sony et al have their own hardware and communication channels for their games. Everything has to be brought together on a single machine. A smartphone is a lot more expensive than a console.

  • HistoryTeller #28 11 months ago

    @pinktothelast

    Often, when people imagine how the future - even the near one - will look like, they tend to make huge mistakes.

    You only have vague clues. And that does not often translate in things to really happen the way it was thought.

  • Widge #29 11 months ago

    While the games are cheap and cheerful, they will not reach the quality of a console game. As the complexity ramps up, so will dev cost and they won't do that with cheap games.

  • ssebastian #30 11 months ago

    @Einstein. I believe that if anyone in this industry knows something about technology, that would be Carmack. Cloud and mobile gaming will go hand to hand in the future. And contrary to popular belief, I don't think neither Sony or Microsoft will ever launch a home console every again. They'll have to adapt to the new ways of gaming or they'll be left out.
    Imagine a server that's 20 times more powerful than the best home PC streaming a game at super high-speed Internet connection directly on the 1440p screen of an iPad 5.
    Goodbye consoles! :)
    Edited by ssebastian at 08/07/11 @ 12:33

  • Gastrian #31 11 months ago

    Post deleted at 17:56:43 13-04-2012

  • Subdominator #32 11 months ago

    So in two years I get hardware worth 100 bucks for 600 and more and can enjoy it on a 4" display. Sounds like a great deal to me. Not.

  • tancredo #33 11 months ago

    At some point, it would not surprise me even for next generation, I can see the consoles adopting a tablet-like design. With the ability to place it in a dock connected to the TV via HDMI. This dock could hold much of the consoles processing requirements, with the tablet being a kind of parasite

    In the case of Xbox, using a compatible interface like W7 or W8 to connect the console via WiFI to the mobile, Stereo or even the remote control of the TV. One could also dettach the tablet to use independently with arcade games or to store game information. Also use the tablet camera as a Kinect accesory for added depth.

    I know, daydreaming.
    Edited by tancredo at 08/07/11 @ 12:52

  • lockload #34 11 months ago

    30 minute battery life

    Seriously though PS Vita will be the main loser as phone will overtake it in no time
    Edited by lockload at 08/07/11 @ 13:02

  • snick #35 11 months ago

    @tancredo, sounds like you pretty much described the Wii U there.

  • Mattattattatt #36 11 months ago

    This all sounds ridiculously expensive. By the time you've bought one of these cutting edge mobiles and all the docking kit, you'll be able to buy two home consoles.

    At least the short lifecycle of phones means they could evolve faster. But I'm used to 5-10 year life cycles with guaranteed compatibility. I don't want to upgrade every couple of years, which potentially you might end up doing.

  • elchongo #37 11 months ago

    I love this guy and he is making some point when he is saying that since they started RAGE
    where not iphone and now they can rival something like in between PS1 /PS2
    (well sony did somehting called PSP remember?) or something
    however

    i would also point this guy that I been using "smartphones" since 2007 and even i love them
    but the battery life is pathetic since then, and i don't see that changing overnight

    still would love to get to my poor friend's house and conect my phone and play games
    but lets get real

  • Quixz #38 11 months ago

    His right, Nvidia's new kal-el chip is shaping up to be a little monster. Look it up! :)

  • Raiten #39 11 months ago

    Nothing strange about playing games on mobilephones/smartphones, afterall we've played with such devices games since the first mobilephones that came packed with lil twidly worm games. Nothing wrong with that, but what gets over peoples heads is, when publishers/devs go mad about such devices replacing PC's or consoles, which they never can lacking proper controls, lacking over half of the functions pc's perform, when you tread on this said territory people tend to get angry/frustrated/twitchy and what not.
    I don't realy want a smartphone/tablet with a docking station thingie as replacement for pc or consoles, these devices cost allready more than consoles or gaming pc, add a station to plug it in at home and it'll cost double or triple that of a powerfull gaming pc and still lack the same functions a pc would give you.

  • metalangel #40 11 months ago

    What's the point, when touch controls remain annoying and imprecise. Are we expected to have full size controllers running off our phones? That will require a lot of plugs (HDMI, for one), not to mention a power socket if you want to play for more than 20 minutes.

  • Xardan #41 11 months ago

    Just worry about battery life for now okay? I am so sick of having to recharge my device.

  • Moz #42 11 months ago

    I think the singular processing device the can then connect to different screens and control periferals is no doubt the future for the average user (already there are a number phone/tablet/laptop combos on the horizon and ipad/iphone has the appleTV trick).

    But for people who want the best possible graphics and AI consoles and PC will continue to deliver far more bang for your buck 'cos they're not so restricted by power and heat.

    And even in the portable market there's still room for handheld consoles mainly because of controls and battery.

  • KKRT #43 11 months ago

    People really dont get it. USB 3 called Thunderbold is capable of transfers higher than HDMI 1.4 and in 5 years Intel is going to make new interface that will be 5x times faster than Thunderbold, so You will just plugin You smartphone to TV like mouse to USB.
    And about input - every phone has bluetooth support, exaclty the same bluetooth that PS3 and X0 uses for their pads.

    Still dont think i'll get rid of my gaming PC, but consoles can be threaten.

    Oh and dont worry about battery life, Australian University already made prototype of battery made from graphen that can be charged by just touching screen.
    http://www.nanotech-now.com/news.cgi?sto...
    Edited by KKRT at 08/07/11 @ 15:36

  • Gao #44 11 months ago

    But I predict that within one-hundred years, computers will be twice as powerful, 10,000 times larger and so expensive that only the five richest kings of Europe will be able to afford one

  • Gastrian #45 11 months ago

    Post deleted at 17:56:43 13-04-2012

  • Marshall2008 #46 11 months ago

    @gastrian
    display port bandwidth is 21.6 Gbit/s, current HDMI is 10.2 Gbit/s So although he got thunderbolt mixed up with usb3 he was correct about the higher bandwidth than HDMI 1.4
    Edited by Marshall2008 at 08/07/11 @ 22:40

  • Lucodeath #47 11 months ago

    £500 for iphone or £500 or an I5 2500 with a gtx460 hmm I know what Id rather play games on.

  • Gastrian #48 11 months ago

    Post deleted at 17:56:43 13-04-2012