NGP "unlikely to hit the mass market"

By Fred Dutton Published 27 January, 2011

Analysts cool on Sony's new handheld.

The NGP lacks mass market appeal, according to a top industry analyst, and may fail to resonate with the mobile gaming generation, predicts another.

A trio of talking heads chimed in with their opinions of Sony's new PSP successor to IndustryGamers following the hardware reveal earlier today. While all were impressed by the system's feature set, there was less consensus regarding its market potential.

"[NGP has a] strong software lineup, but unlikely to hit the mass market," speculated Lazard Capital Markets' Colin Sebastian.

"While clearly differentiated from the more casual games that have made the iPhone a phenomenal success as a videogame platform, it remains unclear whether there is mass market potential for high-end portable games. We note that Sony's PSP did not meet initial sales expectations despite offering the highest quality graphics on a portable device at that time."

Mike Hickey of Janco Partners, though excited by the portable's "muscular hardware specs", echoed Sebastian's concerns.

"We suspect Sony's NGP will face considerable market competition from smartphones, tablets and Nintendo's 3D's gaming handheld," he explained.

"We believe Sony's PSP and PSP Go failed to resonate with today's mobile gamers; and view the NGP as an evolution not a revolution from the aforementioned. The mobile gaming market moved aggressively away from Sony's interpretation of a mobile game experience, and it's not clear to us that the NGP is mapping to that new market."

Of course, no analyst round-up would be complete without Wedbush Morgan's beloved Michael Pachter and, surprisingly, he was the most enthusiastic of the three.

"It's a pretty impressive device," he gushed. "There is a lot to like, and Sony has a huge library of content. The device looks pretty powerful, so I wouldn't be surprised to see some pretty sophisticated games, and the 3G capability and relationship with Android means we'll see a ton of Android apps on the device as well.

The Pach-Man predicted strong launch sales for the device, but speculated its long-term success would live or die on the strength of the software support.

"I suppose it will sell incredibly well for the first year (would bet 15 million or so), and then it will succeed or slow based upon the availability of software, much like the original PSP. I think it's a huge step up on the PSP, and think that the memory card-based games (a la DS) make a lot of sense."

Picture of Fred.

About Fred Dutton

Fred Dutton is Eurogamer's US news editor, based in Washington DC.

Read more articles from Fred by visiting the Fred Dutton archive page.

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Comments (56) Latest comment 1 year ago

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  • coolbritannia #1 1 year ago

    As am I. It's the PSP V DS battle with the extra competition from smartphones.

  • old_skool #2 1 year ago

    Yes, and my crystal ball says it's now snowing on jupiter

  • kentmonkey #3 1 year ago

    First and only time you will see the words "Analysts" and "cool" in the same sentence.

  • OlMaster #4 1 year ago

    If I remember correctly, analysts argued that PSP was going to be the future and DS would ultimately fail with its quirky and low-tech device. Given the near universal praise for the device so far I'd be more inclined to agree with Pachter (for a change), but predicting the market before even the 3DS is out is very presumptuous.

  • AmherstWind #5 1 year ago

    Ah analysts... getting paid for doing the same wild speculating every single one of us is doing right now.

  • dsmx #6 1 year ago

    Analysts the only job where you can be wrong more than 50% of the time and still get to keep your job.

  • MiniAmin #7 1 year ago

    It doesn't need to hit the mass market. Provided its profitable and keeps its consumers satisfied with a variety of great software, it'll do just fine.

    Sony's PSP didn't fail to resonate with mobile gamers. I see it on the tube all the time. Just because it didn't outsell the DS (a massive success) it doesn't mean that it was a failure.

  • BabyJesus #8 1 year ago

    @Dmsx I dunno about that , George Osborne gets away with it too.

  • Retro_ #9 1 year ago

    It's official, I'm one in fifteen million

  • Retro_ #10 1 year ago

    It's official, I'm one in fifteen million

  • drumbaby #11 1 year ago

    I think my PSP is one in 64,000,000.

  • old_skool #12 1 year ago

    64 million is considered a failure, good grief

  • LetsGo #13 1 year ago

    I often disagree with these game analysts but they are bang on the money here.

    If PSP didnt sell to the mass market, why will this? Its an even harder market now with the iPhone/Pod (which wasnt around on the PSP launch, well the app store wasnt at least....).

  • Eraysor #14 1 year ago

    Long as I can install custom firmware and play Mega Drive games and the original Quake on it I'll buy...

  • infernox1 #15 1 year ago

    64 million sold for the psp isnt called a failure, but it isnt called a success either except in japan. software sales were pretty dam weak except in japan, then there was the piracy. im not sure but i think sony makes most of its revenue through software. not sure about whether sony sold it at a profit or a loss.
    Edited by infernox1 at 27/01/11 @ 20:00

  • YoshiMcTaggis #16 1 year ago

    Analysts say Nintendo on top right now, will stay on top for eternity. Sony not on top, will never be.

    *time passes*

    Analysts say Sony on top right now, will stay... etc

  • Widge #17 1 year ago

    It DOES look like a complete mantoy! That is what I want though. FUCK THE MASS MARKET. If Japan can subsidise my gaming with Monster Hunter 42 then I will look forward to the Future Generation Portable 4 with inbuilt mass effect engine.

  • MiniAmin #18 1 year ago

    Analysts the only job where you can be wrong more than 50% of the time and still get to keep your job.

    What about football referees?

  • benfresh76 #19 1 year ago

    I think that this is a fair assessment going on what we know so far. There's no question that this device will appeal to the core market, but as it stands, there is really nothing that will justify what will inevitably be a high outlay for the casual market. For mass appeal and capturing the imagination of the broader public, Sony have absolutely nothing that competes with the 'magic' of glasses free 3d, whether they like the idea or not. They should have included a phone in this device if they wanted mass appeal.

  • old_skool #20 1 year ago

    OK, wait just a sec, let us scrutinize their analyses objectively.

    "While clearly differentiated from the more casual games that have made the iPhone a phenomenal success as a video game platform, it remains unclear whether there is mass market potential for high-end portable games. We note that Sony’s PSP did not meet initial sales expectations despite offering the highest quality graphics on a portable device at that time."

    What was the initial sales expectations? They don't specify it, but we can say that 64 million for a dedicated gaming device and being Sony's first entry into the portable gamin market, a market that couldn't be cracked by the NEO GEO Pocket, Wonderswann and Sega Gamegear, can be classed as a failure? I think not.

    "However, we suspect Sony's NGP will face considerable market competition from smartphones, tablets and Nintendo's 3D's gaming handheld"Hickey told us. "We believe Sony's PSP and PSP Go failed to resonate with today's mobile gamers; and view the NGP as an evolution not a revolution from the aforementioned. The mobile gaming market moved aggressively away from Sony's interpretation of a mobile game experience, and it's not clear to us that the NGP is mapping to that new market."

    The device clearly targets the core gamer. That's why they have Xperia Play and the rest of the Playstation Suite to tackle the casual market.

    "I suppose it will sell incredibly well for the first year (would bet 15 million or so), and then it will succeed or slow based upon the availability of software, much like the original PSP. I think it's a huge step up on the PSP, and think that the memory card-based games (a la DS) make a lot of sense."

    The above comment from Michael Pachter probably makes the most logical assessment, after the first year it will fail or succeed based on software availability. Taking into account comments from developers that had access to the NGP it would seem that developing games would be much easier, so that already removes a huge barrier and bodes well for software availability.

  • Tallon4 #21 1 year ago

    Analyst...would could possibly do without em?

    I'll buy a NGP no matter what those wankers say

  • Lamb #22 1 year ago

    If price were no object the PSP2 would wipe the floor with the 3DS.

    Hopefully they will set the price based on a projected high volume sold plus the margin they earn on their first three games. Because based on the tech alone this should be more expensive than a Nexus S and that had a reduced launch price of £430.

    Granted thats still somewhat a ripoff for a phone and even £330 is somewhat pricey. But unless Sony wants a niche product it will be thereabouts. As £600 is obscene. But given the fact that components are minitaurizing nicely (32nm dies) they should be able to swing it there at £330 and make a tidy profit.

  • captainrentboy #23 1 year ago

    Ohh, do fuck off.
    These analysts are a laughing stock. Either they're making rediculously obvious 'predictions' or they're totally and utterly wrong, but we've all forgotten about it as they said it months ago.
    Seriously, how much are these cunts paid?
    Edit- I was trying to think what one of their last classic predictions was, I remember. Call Of Duty Black Ops will sell 25% less than Modern Warfare 2 did on its equivilant launch.
    I could have fucking told them that was going to be incorrect. :/
    Edited by captainrentboy at 27/01/11 @ 20:35

  • Wyrm #24 1 year ago

    tbf the analysis means sod all when we don't have a price point and an accurate prediction of software quality over the coming years.

    If it comes out at £150 it'll be like them hot cakes. It won't, but it's still the case.

  • des #25 1 year ago

    PSP problem were never hardware sales,software on the other hand...Japan excluded
    But yeah NGP has a very little chance of hitting mass market,nothing about it speaks "mass market,mass market".Problem here is that with no mass market,third party support will dry up eventually just like with PSP...you might get a game here or there,but that's it
    It looks like a dream core handheld but will it be supported properly,stay tuned...

    3DS has a driving force of NINTENDO behind it...it will sell regardless of NGP,anyone saying otherwise is deluding himself

  • spammage #26 1 year ago

    First impressions without seeing the price and i prefer this to Nintendo's new offering. Just hope $ony don't kill it with stupid pricing.

  • Der_tolle_Emil #27 1 year ago

    I think they might have a point:

    it remains unclear whether there is mass market potential for high-end portable games.

    It really depends on the definition of mass market. Will the NGP ever reach sales even remotely close to the numbers of FarmVille players? Probably not. Neither does the 3DS if you ask me.

    The good thing is: Neither console/phone has to. Personally I would love to see neither the 3DS, the NGP nor the iPhone reach silly numbers like that. Having three consoles that cater specific needs with roughly the same marketshare is good competition for everyone involved.

  • CrumpledPaper #28 1 year ago

    Playstation Suite is Sony's move for the mass market. NGP is a uncompromised core system. Although I think Sony may yet surprise on price.

  • niteninja #29 1 year ago

    Shame nobody listened to the real analysts isnt it?

    http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LfascZSTU4o

  • Der_tolle_Emil #30 1 year ago

    One more thing, because I forgot that: It will all be about the software. I don't think ANYONE saw the Wii or the original DS as a device with so much appeal for all kinds of people. What made the consoles what they are was the software. There is always great potential in that department so drawing conclusions with barely a few tech demos announced is kind of stupid anyway.

  • knightmt #31 1 year ago

    You know what determines your market size demand.
    And the real question is will the game hungry pay for the NGP.
    I do think it is weird that the NGP has 3G people will use this for comms,
    it is interesting that sony are not aiming this at the phone market,
    I think that is partly due to their other offerings.
    Smart phones are quite expensive, mainly because most people are on contract.

  • mr2ange #32 1 year ago

    Hmm well....

    iphone sales - 73.5 million
    PSP - 65.7 million

    Take into consideration that the Iphone is indeed a phone, and the psp primarily is a gaming platform... I think they are very different markets...

    As for the DS - How many of the millions of casual users of the DS that own brain training and nothing else, are going to pay the big bucks for the 3DS? Maybe all of them? i dont know, its pretty damn hard to predict...

    All i can say is, thankgod there is atleast one HH system aiming for the hardcore audience! it has all the abilities to do casual games too, and thankfully the grunt to show off some things that are truly something special.

    we have to remember that apple dont have a huge dedicated team of devs making games for their own platform, the best games have come from small studios / independants. and bloody well done to them.

    Will be a very interesting round this coming HH generation.

  • LetsGo #33 1 year ago

    "iphone sales - 73.5 million
    PSP - 65.7 million "

    Errr IOS sales (ALL units which can play Apple app games) 160 million I think your find.

  • mr2ange #34 1 year ago

    @LetsGo "Errr IOS sales (ALL units which can play Apple app games) 160 million I think your find. "

    Ok if you want to play that game, Sony machines that can play Playstation games...

    ps1 - 100 million
    ps2 -140 million
    ps3 - 46.9 million
    psp - 65 million

    Crossovers across all consoles - ps2 plays all ps1 games, ps3 all play ps1 games and minis and some play ps2, psp play all ps1 games and mini's

    What exactly is your point?

    Edit: Additional - how many people have Ios devices and dont play games on them? vs the latter?
    Edited by mr2ange at 27/01/11 @ 22:20

  • funkateer #35 1 year ago

    "They should have included a phone in this device if they wanted mass appeal. "

    Are you serious? Who the hell would want to use the NGP as a freaking phone? I'm sure I'd look fantastically stupid holding the NGP to my ear.

    I think both these analysts and Sony are right, but these analysts just asked themselves the wrong question.
    Sony obviously doesn't target the mass market with that hardware and software line-up, and that's a very sensible thing: Do what you're good at and make something awesome and you'll have a market, and it looks like they will do just that. Just like they did with the PSP.
    Yes there's now more competition from iOS and Android and the likes, but they can't deliver what Sony (and Nintendo) deliver.

  • makeamazing #36 1 year ago

    I would prefer this device to a 3DS, i would also say with the number of consoles sold over both HD consoles, there are enough users to say that going for the HD handheld market is still a very large market to aim for, and a good differentiator than the 3DS..

    I just hope they can get the non 3G price under £280 and it has a good chance of success, but people dont seem that convinced.

  • niteninja #37 1 year ago

    Something that hasnt been mentioned is how m$ must be shitting their pants right now, sony and nintendo have all the aces right now with the ps3s aaa game line up and a new console launch,nintendo have pretty much the same with the 3ds which will be a massive seller.
    All m$ have got is gears of war3 and a ton of wavy arm simulators for a camera.
    Not shocked at all how three of m$ executives resigned last week.
    Edited by niteninja at 27/01/11 @ 23:03

  • FortysixterUK #38 1 year ago

    If this thing got released at £149.99 ( with launch game) it would sell by the bucketload.

  • LetsGo #39 1 year ago

    @mr2ange

    Seriously mate, think about what you are saying. You compared the iPhone with the PSP. You should be comparing IOS with the PSP if your going to play that game.

    Why are you listing all the playstation consoles? You should have listed all versions of the PSP, not home and handheld consoles.

    ALL versions of IOS - 160 million
    ALL versions of the PSP - 65.7 million
    ALL versions of the DS - 144.59 million

    Thats all I'm saying....

    Currently, like it or not, Apple own the biggest handheld console on the market.

  • citizenHUNTER #40 1 year ago

    The only thing Sony need to do, with this hardware in place capable of just about anything, (besides sporting a 3D display), is to make absolutely sure it has a vibrant game/app marketplace with the sorts of brilliant games like Reckless Racing, Flight control, Angry Birds and so on, at similar prices to the iPhone store, not £5.99 a pop or anything daft/greedy like that. That is ALL they need to do, combined with their range of fully featured graphically stunning games and finally the full range of control you need to enjoy such games... everything is there for them to really give us all the ultimate portable gaming device, can they stuff it up. £400 price tag might be how they would stuff it up. I look forward to both full games plus casual games, especially ones utilising a combo of the touch and proper button controls... it could be immense, I look forward to it, but it's all about the pricing, but if done right I think this can blow the 3DS out the water.

  • Dizzy #41 1 year ago

    They are right for once. Nobody, except some hardcore gamers, will want to be seen with a gaming device when you can be a cool kid on the block with an iPad/iPhone.

    The 3DS will sell great because of the target demographic. 15M in one year is incredibly optimistic TBH.
    Edited by Dizzy at 28/01/11 @ 00:05

  • Scopeh #42 1 year ago

    64 million units sold is not mass market? what a load of bollocks then.

  • DrStrangelove #43 1 year ago

    I think it will sell a lot, similar to the PSP1, which was rather successful actually despite the claims that it was a "failure". PSP's problem was that it was always overshadowed by the overwhelming and surprising success of the DS. The Gamecube was a failure, I remember how the Gamecube game shelves in stores got increasingly replaced with XBox and PS2, until they disappeared completely and media stores gave away their last Gamecube stuff in 70% off-bundles. But today, there are still large shelves everywhere with PSP games, so it can't be really bad.

    And as much as I like the concept of the 3DS, I heavily doubt it will repeat its predecessor's success. The reason the DS sold so well was because it had a great appeal to casual gamers and non-gamers. But those people all have smartphones now, and I think only few of them are going to pick up a 200-quid 3DS with much more expensive games on top of that. The 3DS is a hardcore gamer's device now, and as such is really in direct competition with the NGP.

    Sony's great advantage this time might be the software library. Due to the technical similarity to the PS3, I guess developers won't have great difficulties in porting their new home console titles for the NGP. And if this is true, then probably almost all PS3 or cross-platform games will be available on the NGP as well, resulting in a quickly growing library of heavily funded first-class games.

    This might even be the Achilles' heel of the 3DS, because developers will have to design games exclusively for that. Thinking of it now, the NGP might even outsell the 3DS. Of course, Sony makes also smartphones, and on top of that even a smartphone/Playstation hybrid now. Attacking the mobile/handheld market from three sides to not miss out anywhere, seems like a solid strategy actually. Nintendo is much more specialised this time.

    Gosh, I guess it really is hard to predict stuff.
    Edited by DrStrangelove at 28/01/11 @ 01:27

  • DrStrangelove #44 1 year ago

    Interesting sidenote: in a respected German weekly, I recently read about an extensive study concerning market analysts' predictions. All were classified in three categories "significantly changing for the worse", "significantly changing for the better", and "roughly remaining constant". After comparing it with what actually happened later, it turned out less than 30% guessed right.

    The article's author recommended to throw dice instead, because they actually have a better hit rate.

  • el_pollo_diablo #45 1 year ago

    Miserable sod analysts.

  • Reihn #46 1 year ago

    This seems like a dog to me. I just *can* *not* get excited about a product called the "NGP". It makes me think of NPD charts, or some kind of factory code - not a coveted entertaiment device.

    Please tell me it's just a placeholder name . . right?

  • Vixremento #47 1 year ago

    It looks like an awesome device but I think they may be right about the lack of mass market penetration if the price isn't right. It seems like Sony may be going for a "you'll find the cash if you really want it" approach again like they did with the PS3.

    Instead they should expect to rather sell it at a loss and recoup these losses with a stronger software lineup (PSSuite sounds like it could really be a serious contender for anything else out there now especially it it's more open)...I'm just not sure Sony is mature enough to have something that isn't so tightly controlled.

  • cjs #48 1 year ago

    If I understand what these analysts are saying, they would also consider the PS3 to have failed in penetrating to the "mass market." That doesn't mean that there isn't a market, and a large one, for such products.

    I expect that game developers are going to be much happier with markets created by devices such as the NGP and 3DS, even if they're much smaller, because the retail cost of games in those markets isn't rapidly being driven towards zero.

  • mr2ange #49 1 year ago

    @LetsGo

    The Iphone / Ipad are not consoles. and lets be honest the ipad is hardly something you would / could put in your pocket.

    They are both multi function devices made for people that want a powerful phone that "can" play games - most being closely comparable to the complexity of flash games.

    Just because you can play flash quality games on them doesn't mean they are all used for it.

    People buy *real* handheld gaming devices for Games. - DS / PSP
    People buy iphones for things other than cut the rope. (such as grandma ordering shopping and reading books) - iphone/ipad

    Sure lots of people play angry birds, but is it really competition for Monster Hunter / God of war?

  • _LarZen_ #50 1 year ago

    iPhone,Android and 3DS wil bake NGP's life a living hell im affraid....and Sony wil fail with yet a handheld. Its a sad sad story :'(

  • _LarZen_ #51 1 year ago

    @mr2ange

    iDevices is one of the most popular handheld gaming plattform in the world. Yes you have games that have somewhat simple gfx, but you also have game like this [link url=http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QM1pOi5g_Zc&feature=player_embedded
    ]http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QM1pOi5g_...[/link]

    That is just one, there are more...just scream if you want a list :)

  • Apaar #52 1 year ago

    I doubt Sony even intends this one to be their vanguard at the mass markets. NGP is clearly an extremely hardcore device - a high tech gaming device for gamers - everything else it encompasses is entirely secondary. Sony has their PS Suite plan and PSmartphone set for the mass markets anyway.

    I find this three sided approach to be really smart, and enjoy the fact that hardcore portable gaming is seemingly in safe hands.

  • mr2ange #53 1 year ago

    @Larzen

    Yes it looks pretty good. although lets see how it compares with sales of DS2 on the other platforms?

    Also i think i'd rather see the screen than cover it with my fingers all the time.

    Unfortunately touch screen only games are pretty limited in interativity and precision.
    As you say they are perfect for the causal audience, no complex controls barrier and what not. but its a pretty watered down experience compared to using a real stick/s + buttons.

    try making a game that has more than three moves ie monster hunter / gow as i said before.

  • Vixremento #54 1 year ago

    @mr2ange

    I'm with you on this. I watched that youtube clip and I thought it looked pretty nice but I know that I wouldn't enjoy playing it using pure touch controls. Then again it's been the same for a lot of the ipod touch games I've played...sadly the ipod touch is only suitable for those casual games (i.e. Angry Birds) with anything more serious just needing something with a bit more enjoyment to use (it's almost as bad as playing an FPS with a console controller).

  • man.the.king #55 1 year ago

    @niteninja

    "Something that hasnt been mentioned is how m$ must be shitting their pants right now, sony and nintendo have all the aces right now with the ps3s aaa game line up and a new console launch,nintendo have pretty much the same with the 3ds which will be a massive seller.
    All m$ have got is gears of war3 and a ton of wavy arm simulators for a camera.
    Not shocked at all how three of m$ executives resigned last week. "

    There's one in every thread.

    /sigh

  • Centrifugal #56 1 year ago

    I don't know about that. I reckon the draw of being able to effectively play a PS3 in the palm of your hand with sophisticated touch screen controls etc will prompt people to buy it.