EA investors "betting against" SWTOR

By Fred Dutton Published 24 January, 2011

Analyst claims city unrest over MMO.

EA's investors are "betting against" the publisher's forthcoming MMO, Star Wars: The Old Republic, a top analyst has claimed.

Speaking to Gamasutra, Janco Partners analyst Mike Hickey suggested shareholders are pessimistic that the BioWare-developed epic will do the business, citing EA's questionable MMO track record as a chief area of concern.

The publisher's last attempt to launch an MMO was Warhammer Online: Age of Reckoning in 2008. Subscription numbers for the Mythic-developed titled got off to a strong start but quickly dwindled causing the publisher to shut down 63 servers a year later.

"We believe many investors are betting against SWTOR achieving market success, provided the company's and industry's track record at releasing successful new MMOs," Hickey said.

He went on to add that investors were also concerned about the decision to go with subscription fees rather than the increasingly popular free-to-play model, not to mention lukewarm press response to preview builds and the impact that LucasArts' slice of the pie might have on their bottom line.

According to Hickey, investors' list of concerns includes "a suspected subscription pricing model versus a market that is quickly transitioning to free to play, generally modest previews of the game and elevated development expense and suspected aggressive royalty to LucasArts."

Hickey's comments are the latest in a barrage of negative press the title has been forced to weather. In October, a disgruntled EA insider branded the forthcoming MMO "a joke", insisting "Old Republic will be one of the greatest failures in the history of MMOs from EA."

BioWare boss Ray Muzyka responded, "It's a big bet, but it's the right kind of bet to make for EA."

The game, which has been in development since 2008, is due for release sometime between now and April 2011. EA CFO Eric Brown recently claimed that the publisher sees the project as "a 10 year opportunity."

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About Fred Dutton

Fred Dutton is Eurogamer's US news editor, based in Washington DC.

Read more articles from Fred by visiting the Fred Dutton archive page.

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Comments (39) Latest comment 1 year ago

Comments for this article are now closed, but please feel free to continue chatting on the forum!

  • lcmnick #1 1 year ago

    Post deleted at 12:48:44 14-04-2012

  • Eraysor #2 1 year ago

    Being an analyst is like being an internet troll for a job!

  • Doctor_What #3 1 year ago

    Yep, and on the other hand... It's BioWare. I'm prepared to see how it plays out.

  • Felarion #4 1 year ago

    Why the need to mention EAlouse again? Hasn't his view on SWTOR already been discredited, not least by a follow up post by himself admitting he knows bugger all about it?

  • makeamazing #5 1 year ago

    Analysts... I like Pachter... I would rather hear from him :D

    Lets be honest, MMOs in this market, there are just too many of them, and suck up too much time for people to play... i used to play alot of MMO's but as i get even older, the time just disappears... Ultima online, now those were the days.

    So the only problem for the Star Wars MMO is that there are already too many established MMOs already out there, and the market is getting even more crowded. MMOs are not like a 8 hour single player experience, and thats where they have a problem, i still think MMOs need a total shake up in how they are made and how they are designed.. but i guess thats just me :)

  • patch #6 1 year ago

    Surely any MMO is a risk, you need to invest a lot of money and it's success is far from guaranteed. I'd have said it's got a fair chance of being popular purely because of the Star Wars license. Let's hope they didn't pay too much for it :)

  • anomagnus #7 1 year ago

    @eraysor - my hats off to you sir, i've never seen a more accurate description of the analysts job

  • Oh-Bollox #8 1 year ago

    suspected aggressive royalty to LucasArts.

    "Fuck off you cunt or I'll fucking cut you." Prince Phillip was heard to remark.

  • Sonic_D #9 1 year ago

    Uh oh...

  • andywilkie35 #10 1 year ago

    I'd bet against it too, it's the game no one asked for. Make Knights of the Old Republic 3, the game everyone actually wants.

  • Felarion #11 1 year ago

    @doomed_soul89 Didn't APB have a per hour subscription plan?

    *edit* Also, it's not been in development since 2008. It was announced in 2008. Shoddy research there.
    Edited by Felarion at 24/01/11 @ 22:33

  • curtlikesmeat #12 1 year ago

    Haven't seen anything interesting in the trailers so far. Don't say full voice, Everquest 2 was mostly voiced years ago. The way stories can pan out does look ok, but that's off-set by the very samey looking combat mechanics. I'm much more interested in the Secret World setting than this.

    I think I just felt less excited about Star Wars in general, in about.... 1999...

  • curtlikesmeat #13 1 year ago

    P.S. It's over Anakin! I have the higher ground!

    Gaaay.

  • witchdrash #14 1 year ago

    I've got to admit the more I hear about this mmo and the more ordinary it seems, which is a shame, because Bioware have produced some classics. Still no point in judging something not out yet, there could be a final twist, would be nice to get a decent Star Wars mmo finally.

  • riz23 #15 1 year ago

    Riccitello to get the chop inside a year. Place your bets now folks

  • darkmorgado #16 1 year ago

    "We believe many investors are betting against SWTOR achieving market success, provided the company's and industry's track record at releasing successful new MMOs," Hickey said.

    Two words:

    Star. Wars.

  • BlinkeredAxis #17 1 year ago

    Warhammer online wasn't bad actually, but was based on a pyramid-competitive setup that meant as players progressed, the starting areas got empty. Numbers obviously reduced after free-to-play ran out, and as servers were closed, friends got separated etc etc.

    Second, WoW is still there. It's a monster and isn't going away. Not many MMO fans will subscribe to >1 monthly fee.

    So,a big plus is Bioware. Negative isn't what the EA bullshitters are saying, it's that the monthly fee MMO market is dead with Blizz atill there. Guild Wars have a good model, and have had a lowly publicised mega-hit on their hand for years. You just pay for the regular(ish)expansions. There are other examples of course.

    Don't mention EVE online though, that's for clever scientists ;)

  • funkateer #18 1 year ago

    ...a fair chance of being popular purely because of the Star Wars license
    But how popular is the Star Wars license nowadays, anyway? After a bundle of bad movies and bad games?

  • cnlfailure #19 1 year ago

    @darkmorgado - another word to add there... Galaxies.

  • AphoticCosmos #20 1 year ago

    Modest previews of the game? What?

    Really?

    In 2 years of previews virtually every one I've seen has praised TOR to some extent.

  • Oskool #21 1 year ago

    The NPC's better have some uber loot drops this time. The first Star Wars MMORPG didn't drop any equip-able items when killing an NPC. All weapons and armor were crafted by players. It was so boring.
    Edited by Oskool at 24/01/11 @ 23:30

  • levitate #22 1 year ago

    Market ploy to talk down the game so the hype won't reach Jupiter at launch.

  • hiddenranbir #23 1 year ago

    I'd bet against it in the face of how Guild Wars 2 is aiming to push the envelope while SWTOR is looking to do more of the same and hope it can get away with it on the back of the SW license.

  • EvilZub #24 1 year ago

    I think it will be successful as a game sale, but I have yet to see anything that makes me believe its going to have long term appeal.

  • vallhall74 #25 1 year ago

    Yeah, my money is on Guild Wars 2. SWTOR looks good, but not great. Bioware might hold an ace up its sleve with the storytelling, but have heard little about the endgame.

    Arenanet and Bioware, two great storytellin giants, but Arenanet is trying something totally different with GW2, and the artstyle is out of this world. SWTOR looks like the clonewars cartoon in my opinion, while GW2 looks more mature. Arenanet have promised a dynamic world with changes made based on player choices. More inovative combat too, with realtime duck and avoid, meaning you can avoid attacks if you time your countermoves well. Your own skills count, not just your characters.

    An open beta for SWTOR would be nice, so Bioware could get some feedback from the community. Mythic did that but made the mistake of not listening enough to the players.

  • mandella #26 1 year ago

    To be honest, I don't want Bioware to succeed on mmo market - if they do, we'll probably can forget about any good single player game form them but on the other hand if they will actually succedd we will receive outstanding mmo game in SW universe, so it's win-win scenario anyway :)

  • trooperdx3117 #27 1 year ago

    He seems to forget that in general Star Wars fans are pretty rabid, and will usually buy anything associated with the name, why else do you think George Lucas can get away with releasing so many pap films

  • NegativeZero #28 1 year ago

    @doomed_soul89: much of Asia pays an hourly fee to play WoW. Especially China. Some sort of government regulation thing where they have to track how many hours someone's played and kick them after a certain amount of time or else they might become addicts.

    Personally, I prefer the subscription model over free to play, simply because free to play is usually incredibly grindy and repetitive - they want you to pay for items to reduce the grind. Also, EA investors most likely are 'betting against' it being successful because they're looking at the MMO market and defining 'success' as somehow managing to get 10+ million subscribers like WoW, something that no one else has actually managed to do. Last I checked, EA were indicating a target of 500,000 or so would be pretty good, anything more would be above expectations.

    I hope Bioware/EA are smart enough to have a decent open beta period - one that doesn't require me to preorder to get into, that's absolute bullshit and publishers need to stop doing that - because I personally am fairly leery about buying into MMOs without playing them first. I've been burned by too many of them.

  • MaybeLater #29 1 year ago

    Investors hate spending money. The kind of money rumoured to have been spent on this game must be a terrifying outlay and if it works competitors will doubtless be tempted to follow suit. I would be worried if I was an investor.

  • Rirekon #30 1 year ago

    Linking the success of Star Wars to that of WAR is like linking the success of FIFA and NHL, made by different studios and with IPs which are pretty far removed from each other. Also was there really any need to mention EALouse again?

    Seriously, the last 6 months has seen EG head rapidly towards Daily Mail levels of "journalism". Please head back towards the light!

  • Averice #31 1 year ago

    sub games ftw, or at least down with f2p micro payments and dlc worthlessness. go go gw moar please.
    Edited by Averice at 25/01/11 @ 04:15

  • X3Entente #32 1 year ago

    if this fails, then bioware..... well at the very least expect to see their boot up logo after the ea logo from now on

  • r4z0rbl4d3 #33 1 year ago

    In just a few years, BioWare have gone from being well respected throughout the RPG-community with games like Baldur's Gate and NWN, to becoming a mega-multi-million blockbuster game crafter, with huge expectations riding on every title they release. SWTOR will have an up-hill start, battling WoW, Eve, LOTRO and every other MMO out there. But I don't think BioWare will fail at this. The amazing hard work they put into everything they do makes them ideal for this venture.

  • Quixz #34 1 year ago

    Betting against RIFT here.. F2P in 6 months or less.

  • Murton #35 1 year ago

    Surely all big releases will have at least some investors betting against them? Is it really news that some investors are betting against a high risk investment such as this?

    Between the license fees, development costs, inital server outlay and an update/support plan for 6-12 months that's a lot of capital investment made before you put a single copy on store shelves, it's to be expected that some investors aren't going to chance it.

    From a gamers standpoint, I was really interested in this when it was first announced but the more I hear about it the more I mourn the loss of the original SWG. Compared to SWG I find this somewhat lacking in ambition, the storytelling will top notch I'm sure but it lacks a lot of what makes Star Wars great. Firstly there's going to be Jedi everywhere on both sides, which will get very boring very quickly. And secondly there's no player neutral parties and nobody changing sides, something which made SWG come alive. I have fond memories of talking one of my friends into defecting to the Empire and joining my guild, triggering a war with his former guild that raged for weeks, now that's Star Wars but it won't have any place in this game as you choose your side during character creation when you choose your class, and that character is stuck with that faction forever.

  • Xboxfanuk #36 1 year ago

    Star Wars MMO would do very well if it was on consoles as well. I think people play WoW because it has all the right fantasy hooks that make you want to live in that world. Sadly the modern MMO's try and isolate and keep players solo, what's the point right? Additionally will this game even feel like Star Wars?

  • MaybeLater #37 1 year ago

    @Murton I'm pretty sure I read on Darthhater's Devtracker that you can change faction to an extent but not your class and there are a number of independents alongside The Empire and The Republic. The lure of switching sides has been a fundamental element of the story in the previous two games, and indeed the entire Star Wars mythos so it'll almost certainly be in there to some extent. Although it'd be pretty annoying in the MMO context if people switch sides repeatedly.

  • Captain_Jono #38 1 year ago

    Wait, investors are "betting against" ToR's success?

    Didn't Goldman Sachs do something along those lines with sub-prime housing and bring down the world economy?

  • Murton #39 1 year ago

    MaybeLater

    I was lead to believe that the "switching sides" would work in similar fashion to EQ2 where some classes will get a quest to switch sides at some point, which is pretty poor really, I'll check out DarthHater's devtracker and see if I can find more infor.

    I also disagree with the whole Bounty Hunters = Sith and Smugglers = Republic nonsense. Neither of these men have loyalty to anyone, not even the highest bidder. They should be strictly neutral and free to play both sides as when they choose, but because it's story based they can't do that, it's poor design really. Should have called those two classes something else, by taking archtypes from the lore you're giving the player an expectation that the game cannot meet. When people think about smugglers they're thinking Han Solo, Lando Calrissian, Talon Karrde, not some random Republic loyalist freighter captain and they'll be disappointed at being given that role to play, similarly your Bounty Hunters are Boba Fett, Bossk, IG 88, Menndo, Greedo, they're guns for hire that'll work for anyone who can pay the price, not some sort of Sith Special Forces unit.