Kinect success "a surprise to us all"

By Fred Dutton Published 6 January, 2011

But analysts won't write off Move.

With champagne corks no doubt still popping at Microsoft HQ following yesterday's news that Kinect shipped a staggering eight million units in its first 60 days on sale – three million more than its creator anticipated – industry analysts have conceded that the peripheral took them by surprise.

Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter told Eurogamer, "The Kinect shipment number suggests seven million sold to consumers. I initially expected three million, and was surprised when they forecast five million. So I am very surprised by this figure; it is truly impressive."

EEDAR research and communications VP Jesse Divnich echoed the sentiment. "The success of the Kinect was a surprise to us all, and to Microsoft as well," he said.

"Among all the analysts, I was the most bullish, forecasting five to six million in sell through by the end of the year. While Microsoft announced eight million in 'ship-in', it would imply at least 6.5 million units, surpassing even the most bullish of estimates."

Despite Kinect's huge success, neither were prepared to write off Sony's PlayStation Move controller. Back in November, Sony revealed that it had shipped 4.1 million units of its motion-sensing wand. That's an impressive achievement in its own right, reckons Divnich.

"The PlayStation Move is doing phenomenally and certainly Sony should not be disappointed by their holiday results," he explained.

"Yes, in comparison, the Kinect did outsell the Move, but that shouldn't discount the tremendous success the Move has had over the holidays. Selling in over four million of anything in this sector is an incredible accomplishment, even if a competitor sells more."

Divnich went on to hail both peripherals for helping to bail the industry out of a potentially gloomy Christmas sales period.

"Regardless of which side the gamers take, all should acknowledge that both products played a tremendous role in driving sales and videogame awareness this holiday season.

"Even without the official December figures in, I have no doubt in concluding that both the Kinect and Move saved the holiday season from what would have been a disastrous situation of negative dollar comparisons.

"If Nintendo 'saved' us in 2008 and 2009, Microsoft and Sony returned that favor in 2010," he concluded.

Pachter also refused to write off Sony's Move add-on, speculating that when it came to "new buyers" the two platform holders could actually be neck and neck.

"It's premature to say Move is beaten," he insisted.

"Around 60 per cent of Kinect sales were controllers, so those were sold to the installed base. The other 40 per cent were console bundles, and a portion of these were upgrade units sold to existing 360 owners. So only two million or so were new buyers, and I don't know what Sony's comparable figure was, but would guess it is pretty similar.

"There is no question that Microsoft performed far better than expectations, but it's too early to say that Sony performed below expectations."

Picture of Fred.

About Fred Dutton

Fred Dutton is Eurogamer's US news editor, based in Washington DC.

Read more articles from Fred by visiting the Fred Dutton archive page.

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Comments (51) Latest comment 1 year ago

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  • natashaspice #1 1 year ago

    40% of 8million= 2million.O___o i guess these guys are always wrong.
    Edited by natashaspice at 06/01/11 @ 23:38

  • Ror1984 #2 1 year ago

    Analysts in "We got it wrong" shocker.

  • karooo #3 1 year ago

    Wedbush Morgan analyst Michael Pachter told Eurogamer, "The Kinect shipment number suggests seven million sold to consumers. I initially expected three million, and was surprised when they forecast five million. So I am very surprised by this figure; it is truly impressive."


    No comments.

  • JamieR #4 1 year ago

    I'm surprised too considering how shit it looks but i guess its more for people with lots of friends to look a tit in front of which isn't me even though a slightly prefer PS3 console I must say the 360 has the best normal controller ever so I'm quite happy using that.

  • disappointed #5 1 year ago

    I guess it's about marketing. Move looks too much like the Wii to get people excited. Kinect, OTOH seems new and innovative, which it is. Plus Sony are just rubbish at marketing. Ironically, MS's ads are virtually indistinguishable from Nintendo's but at least they work.

    Either way, are the two systems really in direct competition? How many base unit sales are left for this generation?

  • rotmm #6 1 year ago

    @JamieR, "...but i guess its more for people with lots of friends..."

    Sorry to head that you don't have many friends ;-(

  • Eraysor #7 1 year ago

    My problem with Kinect at the moment is the hackers and modders are doing a much better job of producing innovative/interesting games and content than Microsoft itself.

  • ZuluHero #8 1 year ago

    "My problem with Kinect at the moment is the hackers and modders are doing a much better job of producing innovative/interesting games and content than Microsoft itself."

    Hmm, apart from the odd one or two, all i've seen is people mostly taking conventional games and remapping controls to use kinect instead of the intended pad. And making it look like bloody hard work :p

    You have to remember that the retail kit has only just launched and retail games have longer dev times, so I think we'll be seeing some pretty innovative stuff over the next year or so.

    It'll be interesting to see what professional dev studios come out with over 2011.

  • captain-future #9 1 year ago

    Kinect good... Move bad?

  • AdamAsunder #10 1 year ago

    It's just good to see that there's room in the market for all three companies and that all of them are doing well.

  • zedzee #11 1 year ago

    It's amazing how analysts never get it right but they're always first to jump on the congrats and "it surprised us all" bandwagons.

    I really don't understand why there are surprises in the difference as to the number of sales between Kinect and Move, considering the number of console units sold by MS and Sony - it's proportionally correct.

  • zedzee #12 1 year ago

    @disappointed:

    "Kinect, OTOH seems new and innovative, which it is."

    To be honest, I don't see anything in Kinect that Sony's EyeToy could not do - the games I've played on Kinect are uncannily similar and akin to the good old PS2 days with EyeToy. So, I see nothing innovative about it or new.

    I guess what the novelty is that Microsoft has never released anything of this kind for its consoles before - always aiming for 'straightforward' games instead - while Sony has done EyeToy and light guns etc. So them (Sony) ripping off Nintendo with the Move was always going to have less of a 'wow' factor than Kinect.
    Edited by zedzee at 07/01/11 @ 02:05

  • Stoatboy #13 1 year ago

    @Eraysor: I love the stuff the hackers are doing, but you have to bear in mind they don't have to make full games. There have been some very cool things done with Kinect hacks, but all they have to do is show a 1 minute wonder. Spinning that out to something that people will pay fourty quid for is where the problem lies...

  • Psychotext #14 1 year ago

    "There have been some very cool things done with Kinect hacks, but all they have to do is show a 1 minute wonder. Spinning that out to something that people will pay fourty quid for is where the problem lies... "

    I'd buy a ton of those little things for 80 points a pop though. That's why Microsoft needs to get the Kinect SDK in the hands of the Indie Games developers.

  • des #15 1 year ago

    Analysts were wrong,news at 11!

  • Ashcroft #16 1 year ago

    All it needs now is some good games. Or a single good game would be a start.

    Just kidding, hand-waving nonsense all around it is.

  • Doctor_What #17 1 year ago

    'Analysts won't write off Move': well duh. It would be pretty stupid to write off something that had shipped 4.1m in about six weeks and the last update was about six weeks before Christmas.

    From my (pretty limited) sample of games store knowledge, based on some of the largest retailers in the UK, the 360 does seem to have been a little ahead over Christmas but it's too close to call over the whole country. Well done to both Sony and MS.

    I've got to agree with the criticisms of Sony's advertising push - it's completely failed to raise awareness and to distinguish itself from the Wii's offerings, despite the fact that the Move already has many titles that appeal to hardcore gamers. Having played on the Move with my parents over Christmas, they thought it was great and we happily played frisbee golf for many hours, but they had never heard of it before. Other commenters on here seem to suggest that they might have heard of Kinect and that can only be seen as a failure for Sony's press campaign.

  • LordMorpeth #18 1 year ago

    The more I see Kinect in action, the more I am impressed by it. We had numerous family games of Kinect Adventures over Xmas, with kids of all heights and ages walking in front of the camera to have their turn, with hardly any instances of the sensor becoming confused. Really cool. Good luck to M$, I say.

  • evild_edd #19 1 year ago

    It's better Kinected?
    MS finally Kinect with the public?
    MS Kinect for surprise sales success?

    *ahem* not really my thing, but my sister, her fella (also a gamer who's spent silly amounts of hours on Trials HD), and her kids seem to love it. It's still new though, so time will tell whether it adopts my Wii's status as the living room dust collector...

  • coolbritannia #20 1 year ago

    Hmm, i think you could say that Move IS beaten in terms of the competition between m$ and Sony, but Move is still doing well.

  • TopKatt #21 1 year ago

    Move is just a tiny part of what Sony has lined up for 2011 whereas MS are 100% devoted to Kinect at the expense of pretty much anything else on the 360 so I guess it had to sell better for them as they've got so much resting on it.

  • spazmo #22 1 year ago

    The most exciting thing about Kinect is sales talk. Not a good sign.

  • dirtyvu #23 1 year ago

    Pachter's always been wrong. From the guy that said the PS3 would have 50% marketshare, Wii, 30%, and 360 20%.

  • BOFH_UK #24 1 year ago

    Really think Move has a tricky path ahead of it. On the one hand people know what it is, the Wii has taught the general public what that sort of motion controller is and the sales pitch is basically 'the Wii but with HD graphics and more accurate controls'. The Kinect, on the other hand, has to basically start from scratch and rely on both a really good marketing message (you are the controller) and word of mouth. The Move is also, obviously, cheaper to buy into (albeit not so much when you start adding on multiple players) which definately helps.

    On the other hand... the Wii has been showing signs of struggling slightly recently. It's been around for four years now and, let's face it, there's not a vast amount of new experiences waiting for Move if you've spent some time with a Wii. Sony really need to come up with some unique and compelling reasons to set the Move apart and show what it can do that the Wii cannot otherwise I wouldn't be suprised to see momentum die down this year. Frankly though both Move and Kinect at this point are really too much of an unknown to make any sort of accurate predictions.

  • Bealsy #25 1 year ago

    opinions of the kit change very quickly once you play it. Apart from the odd glitch it really works very very well. Looking forward to some new intuitive ways of using it in 2011

  • Zombie-Hamster #26 1 year ago

    Why would analysts write off Move because Kinect has sold more...? Yes, they're both movement based, but I'm pretty sure that Kinect selling more doesn't mean Move has failed... Nor that it won't still appeal to people who have Kinect as well since they both offer something different... And not all of us have both consoles, so one selling more than the other isn't all that relevant as long as one of them doesn't end up selling next to nothing (which clearly isn't the case).

    I wish both companies success as ultimately if they both do well, they'll compete all the harder for our hard-earned cash and in that case we all win :-)
    Edited by Zombie-Hamster at 07/01/11 @ 09:26

  • d00dl #27 1 year ago

    My daughter and myself have found the Kinect experience to be pretty excellent. The only trouble we've had with it is when it has struggled to recognise her voice (she's 6) but I think it might be down to her having a softly spoken nature, until she gets annoyed and starts screaming at it: Fluffy!!! Siiiiiittttt!!!! Bad cat!!!!

    Embarassingly, I got so engrossed in playing Kinectimals that my sister and her mate (who's hot - I'm allowed to look I'm a single parent!) spent a good 5 minutes standing in the corner of the living room giggling while I taught Brutaliser some tricks using gestures but also speaking them out. I got my revenge when I pretended to leave the room and recorded them from the landing trying to talk to the xbox.

    I'm really looking forward to the updates and improvements that MS bring out for it. It really is an excellent product.

  • PixelPirate #28 1 year ago

    WITNESS THE POWER OF OPRAH!
    Edited by PixelPirate at 07/01/11 @ 09:29

  • Widge #29 1 year ago

    Why spend time and money developing something intuitive on Kinect when you can shove out cheap shitty bollocks? PS3 ports are prime example of the time and effort 3rd party publishers want to put into titles.

    I'm expecting to see the same from many Move titles. Tacked on controls, ported Wii titles.

    It is going to be down to the first party teams to make each piece of hardware shine.

  • MENTAL1ST Verified Senior Software Engineer, Picsel UK Ltd. #30 1 year ago

    I got a Move for Christmas, along with a new PS3. Whilst the PS3 itself is very nice (swings and roundabouts versus the 360, it's a better media player, but there's far less interesting stuff for free on PSN than Live), Move has left me distinctly underwhelmed. I can't get the wife interested in it at all, of course it doesn't help that I'd need to shell out another 40 quid if I wanted to play multiplayer. I was considering returning it to the shop for a while, and I noticed after Christmas that Gamestation had three used camera/remote combos in their window.

  • Widge #31 1 year ago

    Yeah, I got mine 2nd hand. I traded a PSP for it.
    Unsurprising though, people buy things and don't like it. Go to AVForums and you can see people selling Moves and Kinect, its not an unusual phenom.

  • Widge #32 1 year ago

    Ha! Lots of people selling Kinect power supplies! I suppose every penny counts.

  • chuck_bone #33 1 year ago

    Now that I have a Kinect and have played it extensively, can see how much actual potential it has.

    I think MS do need a nav controller though, for all the things that Kinect isnt capable of like moving your character about, without tiring you out!

    I want a game like Sorcery for the XBOX with Kinect that allows you to cast spells without being on the rails.

  • des #34 1 year ago

    "Pachter's always been wrong. From the guy that said the PS3 would have 50% marketshare, Wii, 30%, and 360 20%. "

    That is his ego at work,he was pushing that as long as he could,surprisingly he doesn't like being wrong.He did backpedal on that in some gaf meltdown thread,probably deleted now.He said "I overestimated PS3 fanboys",his exact words.

  • mr2ange #35 1 year ago

    I Want Sorcery too!

  • Vin #36 1 year ago

    How does Pachter keep his job?

    Mind-boggling.

  • Retroid #37 1 year ago

    zedzee: "To be honest, I don't see anything in Kinect that Sony's EyeToy could not do - the games I've played on Kinect are uncannily similar and akin to the good old PS2 days with EyeToy. So, I see nothing innovative about it or new."

    The EyeToy was a single RGB camera, and as a consequence it had to basically do 'edge detect' or look for bright colours. The Kinect has RGB and IR 'laser' cameras so it can work out 3D depth.

    Right now the hardware is FAR more interesting than the software but these will have been rushed / kept simple for launch.

    edit: should point out that I'm talking mostly of Ye Olde PS2 EyeToy here. Move has a few different solutions to the depth issue but I am just comparing cameras.
    Edited by Retroid at 07/01/11 @ 19:45

  • jefranklin18 #38 1 year ago

    I could not believe Sony's Move adverts when I saw them. Granted I do not work in advertising, but I am sure having clips of people interacting with "cardboad cutouts" that is not in-game footage would not have been the most effective.

    The differentiator between PS3+Move and Wii (which is the comparison that the casual user would make) is the high-definition graphics (accuracy, lack of latency, etc is great but meaningless for most users) and your advertising campaign removes this? Sony really need to rethink the strategy/sack the idiots that came up with this.

    Kinect's marketing has been very good and fortunately better than the Windows 7 nonsense.

  • pigsy2400 #39 1 year ago

    I cant wait for some core games to be announced,.i got Kinect for Christmas and have played on it twice since.......bring some games out or add backwards support for existing titles,.....throwing motion for throwing a grenade in COD or something

  • Les #40 1 year ago

    Impressive numbers for MS - far better than I'd ever expected. Do wonder how many of those units will still be used in 6 months' time though. Might be another 'EyeToy' (have one, never use it) or '3D movies'...

    And did Sony actually advertise the Move? Only saw 3D TV - PS3 bundles being pushed over the holiday season. Guess you can't focus on everything at once.

  • Machiavellian #41 1 year ago

    It will be interesting to hear the feedback from those that own Kinect, and the software available for it. I have a feeling the Sony Move titles will be stronger.

    The thing you do not get is that it was the software and word of mouth that sold so many Kinects. You think Ms sold so many Kinects because of the commercials.

  • JeffGerstmann #42 1 year ago

    "Around 60 per cent of Kinect sales were controllers........."

    hmm........

  • Machiavellian #43 1 year ago

    The differentiator between PS3+Move and Wii (which is the comparison that the casual user would make) is the high-definition graphics (accuracy, lack of latency, etc is great but meaningless for most users) and your advertising campaign removes this? Sony really need to rethink the strategy/sack the idiots that came up with this.

    The problem with Sony Marketing is that people who bought the Wii or probably the new casuals do not care about HD graphics. If those people did care about such things, they would not buy a Wii. Also more accurate doesn't really translate well because no one know how that makes a game more fun. After playing a lot of Move games, the better accuracy hasn't translated into more fun when compared to games I have played on the Wii. In reality those two points that Sony try to convey are worthless to the average consumer. It's great for Sony hardcore and that is why the Move is sell very well but bringing in new customers that strategy isn't going to work.

  • Machiavellian #44 1 year ago

    Impressive numbers for MS - far better than I'd ever expected. Do wonder how many of those units will still be used in 6 months' time though. Might be another 'EyeToy' (have one, never use it) or '3D movies'.

    I think the difference is that MS is treating and supporting Kinect a lot different then Sony has done with the EyeToy. Sony treated the EyeToy as an add-on. Supported it with a few games and forgot about it. MS is integrating Kinect into everything they do and also delivering a big push in games and other crap. Selling 8 mill will also get a nice push from 3rd party devs so I think the future is bright for Kinect so far.

  • zedzee #45 1 year ago

    @Retroid: What makes you think that depth perception cannot be done with a standard camera?

  • GaryStew1980 #46 1 year ago

    Kinect will probably be on PS3 soon seeing both are being hacked to within an inch of their lives of late. So well done fellow ps3 users something to look forward to.

    If i am honest i am amazed either Kinect or Move have shipped anything like the figures being thrown out. I was given Kinect as a christmas present and i have to be honest i have been really suprised by how good it has turned out to be, even at such an early stage.

    @Jamie R dont worry mate I am sure you will have more friends one day. Not really sure what Kinect has to do with looking like a bellend in front of them though.

    @Eraysor unfortunately you are right but at the same time I am glad MS have gone out of their way say they are happy for hackers to see what they can do with it as it may lead them to stealing some more ideas and really getting Kinect to take off. I would like MS though to try do something like Heavy Rain that game alone makes me nearly want to buy move and see what it is like. We may finally see the return of adventure games.

  • Retroid #47 1 year ago

    zedzee: "@ Retroid: What makes you think that depth perception cannot be done with a standard camera?"

    It's far harder to do it. It would rely on presuming objects are certain sizes for a start (hence glowing ball of a known size on Move) and would require more processing to work out how far away something it. And it'd still be a guess.

    It's basically the reason why almost all animals have stereoscopic vision with those eyes spaced apart from eachother.

  • zedzee #48 1 year ago

    @Retroid: Well, if any casual games are to go by, I'm sure there's plenty of processing power remaining in today's consoles to do depth perception with a normal camera. The bottom line is that it can be done, although it might mean developers have to actually do some real programming, rather than having it handed to them on an API plate.

    I'm afraid that without the 3D infrastructure in homes, all current efforts by the likes of Sony and, if, Microsoft ever dip their toe in, are in vain.

  • Retroid #49 1 year ago

    The first batch of Kinect games are awful, don't get me wrong. No urge to buy one myself. I was just pointing out that anyone saying it was basically EyeToy were doing the concept behind it a bit of disservice :)

    As for 3DTV (which is a different issue) I am very far from convinced, as people here will probably know!

  • TwitchyMcTwitch #50 1 year ago

    Kudos to MS, those are impressive numbers. Sony you've good numbers too, so lets see some more good software (and work out the calibration/drifting issues while you're at it).
    Edited by TwitchyMcTwitch at 09/01/11 @ 20:18

  • zedzee #51 1 year ago

    @Retroid: I think you'll find "first batch" being the only 'type' of batch of games that will do anything with the Kinect. Developers just simply do not have the money or resources to invest in yet another 'way' [of] writing games, when they've got 3DS, PSP2 [and Android 2.3/3.x] knocking on their door soon enough.

    Granted, some current games and future ones will get Move-style retrofits for Kinect control and some future first-party games will be written specifically for it, but unless the underlying architecture pretty much depends on such a controller, eg. the Wii's controllers, it will always be of peripheral interest only, as all previous half-way-through-the-life-of-a-console add-on releases have proven.

    I would actually argue that the 3D issue is DIRECTLY associated with devices such as Kinect, since their ability to do 3D is rendered useless - in game representation purposes - if the TV unit is not a 3D one.

    I think the REAL innovations with Kinect are going to come from the hackers and PC development community. I wish this was something that EG would feel is actually worth writing about and pinning down MS on the future Kinect-specific games they've got lined up this year.
    Edited by zedzee at 17/01/11 @ 15:41