Analysts doubt Reach can beat Black Ops

By Robert Purchese Published 14 September, 2010

Either across all platforms or just on 360.

A handful of the world's leading videogame analysts have questioned Microsoft's confident claim that Halo: Reach can and will outsell Call of Duty: Black Ops.

"I just don't understand why they would even make such a comment without at least contextualising whether it is just on the Xbox 360 or all platforms," EEDAR's Jesse Divinch told Eurogamer - referring to what UK Xbox boss Stephen McGill said last week.

"If he was referring to just the Xbox 360 version of Halo: Reach outselling all platform sales of Call of Duty: Black Ops, then I would put those odds at Slim to None, and Slim just set sail for the Bahamas."

Michael Pachter - analyst for Wedbush Morgan - agreed, and said Halo: Reach had "no chance overall".

Lazard Capital's Colin Sebastian was of a similar mindset, and predicted: "Overall, Call of Duty [Black Ops] will sell significantly more units than Halo [Reach], clearly due to the multiple platforms."

But on Xbox 360 alone, the analysts were divided. Michael Pachter was confident Halo: Reach "will outsell Black Ops", but Colin Sebastian was on the fence: "On the Xbox 360, we expect the two titles will be neck and neck."

"If I had to predict," added Jesse Divinch. "I'd go with Call of Duty: Black Ops."

Sean Dromgoole, head of SomeResearch and GameVision, characterised Microsoft's intentions as "ambitious".

He pulled out some statistics to prove his point. (Note: GameVision Eyeball Hours are hours spent gaming by "active users" - people aged between 10 to 45 years-old playing a game bought in the last 12 months.)

"Last time we looked, in Spring, COD [all versions, all platforms] had 4.4 million players in the UK who were playing for a total of 74 million GameVision Eyeball Hours per month," explained Dromgoole.

"At the same time Halo [all versions] had 1.5 million players who were logging 16 million GameVision Eyeball Hours per month."

Halo: Reach was released today exclusively on Xbox 360. Call of Duty: Black Ops will be released on 9th November on PC, PS3 and Xbox 360.

Yesterday corporate vice president of Microsoft Game Studios Phil Spencer said: "When it comes to the size and scope of a franchise and especially the dedication of the fans, no game is bigger than Halo."

Picture of Robert.

About Robert Purchese

Bertie is Eurogamer's Senior Staff Writer. When he's not hunting down news stories he's often found playing with his kids or gabbling about fantasy games and strange online worlds. @Clert on Twitter.

Read more articles from Robert by visiting the Robert Purchese archive page.

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Comments (39) Latest comment 2 years ago

Comments for this article are now closed, but please feel free to continue chatting on the forum!

  • darkmorgado #1 2 years ago

    Here we go again...

  • Deckard1 #2 2 years ago

    who cares. I will say reach is pretty amazing though, and thats coming from someone who thought halo 3 was shit.

  • RexRunti #3 2 years ago

    I don't know, I'm kinda bored of CoD now. Of course I'm kinda bored of Halo but MS/Bungie keep convincing me it's the last one so I keep buying it. (Halo 3: Finish the Fight, ODST: Finish the Expansion, Reach: Finish the Story)

  • LukehMuse #4 2 years ago

    If I precdicted that videogames analysts will say completely pointless or predictable stuff, will that become news too? Or do I need to put 'videogames analyst' as my profession to predict things now?

  • kangarootoo #5 2 years ago

    "I would put those odds at Slim to None, and Slim just set sail for the Bahamas."

    I like that :)

  • telboy007 #6 2 years ago

    I was bored of MW2 quickly but then after treyarch took over development of the next one, perversely it's got me interested in CoD games again.
    Edited by telboy007 at 14/09/10 @ 16:44

  • Emmit_Assassin #7 2 years ago

    A big PR man at M$ says there is no bigger game than a Halo game? He must be right, he works for M$.

    As for M$ saying it will outsell CoD:BO - bollox. That's just plain PR twaddle.

    Edited so retards don't read my comment wrong.
    Edited by Emmit_Assassin at 14/09/10 @ 17:05

  • Branoic #8 2 years ago

    Are games analysts retarded or something? The xbox man *clearly* didn't mean that Reach would outsell CoD across all platforms. Why would he make such a statement? I don't care what Reach or CoD sell, but the comments from the analysts are just plain daft. "If I had to guess..." says one - that's your fucking job, mate!

  • patchbox360 #9 2 years ago

    who cares

  • woodnotes #10 2 years ago

    "As for saying it will outsell CoD:BO"

    He never said that. Read the full quote in the original article.
    Edited by woodnotes at 14/09/10 @ 16:43

  • Quixz #11 2 years ago

    I should have been an analyst..

  • gingerlink #12 2 years ago

    the eyeball hours seem horrifically out of context given respective release dates of the previous iterations of COD and Halo...

  • Murbal #13 2 years ago

    Anyone hear Michael Pachter on the Giant Bombcast from PAX? He'd been drinking and basically admitted he's pointless.

    I like him.

  • chrisjm #14 2 years ago

    and tins of baked beans to out sell them both
    who cares.

  • darkmorgado #15 2 years ago

    Actually his ratio of right-wrong errs slightly towards being right more often, or at least partially right. Remember when he said games companies would start to monetise the multiplayer in retail games? Everyone laughed. But now we're starting to see a slow move towards that with EA sports.

    While you can argue about whether being an analyst is a worthwhile job (I would argue it is, given that I've been an analyst in the past and trust me, they don't just pull their predictions out of nowhere, they are - normally - based on analysis of existing data sets), Pachter himself seems like quite an ok guy. I've read various interviews with him and seen him on game shows and stuff like that, and he always comes across as very friendly, and definitely a hardcore gamer. He also finds all the hate towards him rather amusing, and agrees that he mostly just guesses things.
    Edited by darkmorgado at 15/09/10 @ 00:11

  • Weezer #16 2 years ago

    This is penis-waving of the highest order. "We worry whether we'll make a gajillion pounds profit or merely a gazilion," said a Microsoft voicehole yesterday. What the fuck does it matter?

  • Phantom_Dynamite #17 2 years ago

    People will buy them both, who cares, after BO: CoD should just be made every 2 years, but we all know the output will be increased, with that and IW mostly gone the quality will decrease.

  • Iain815 #18 2 years ago

    Top analysts? Fuck off, anyone with a bit of common sense could've established Microsoft's claim was bollocks.

  • superted1974 #19 2 years ago

    "Sean Dromgoole, head of SomeResearch and GameVision..."

    Surely made up name at made up company?

  • vx-chemical #20 2 years ago

    I for one, will be skipping Call of Duty this time around. But will be getting Halo. I feel screwed over by Activision and the only of their products i will buy are Blizzard productions.

  • darkmorgado #21 2 years ago

    What the fuck does it matter?

    Quite a bit, if you're a shareholder. If you own stock in a company that makes a big statement like this and then fails to deliver, you can bet there will be some fluctuation in share price.

  • darkmorgado #22 2 years ago

    Top analysts? Fuck off, anyone with a bit of common sense could've established Microsoft's claim was bollocks.

    Once again, they never actually said, AT ANY POINT, that they would sell more copies. Never.

    That point aside, just because something seems obvious doesn't mean that it doesn't need to be evidenced. It might seem obvious that someone is lying to cover their arse in a court of law, for example, but unless you can prove it then you can't convict them. And if you run a massive company or deal with investing money, then when someone makes a statement that can affect your investment decisions or profits, then you need to have someone who will look at all the statistics and give you an informed prediction.

  • Dizzy #23 2 years ago

    IMHO it is very unlikely that Black Ops on 360 will outsell Reach.

  • Caimbeul #24 2 years ago

    Personally I couldnt give a monkeys about Halo or CoD but since when do we care what analysts say anyway.

  • GamesConnoisseur #25 2 years ago

    Questions

    How well did COD sells before MW?

    Would changes of branding of MW to Black Ops make any difference?

    Lack of co -op?

    Acti bust up?

    Fatigue of COD or FPS shooters?

    Lots of factors at play but then we always taken PR bulls with pinch of salt, as often those bulls are also for shareholders!

  • RevanNL #26 2 years ago

    Well, in a perfect world Halo Reach would sell millions more then Black Ops. In a perfect world Black Ops would bomb and Kotick would get fired. But alas, it's not a perfect world.

  • Raiten #27 2 years ago

    You two are compleatly wrong, in a perfect world we'd finaly have something else to look forward to than yet another overhyped frecking FPS game, i get nauceaus from seeing these things released nowdays.

  • jambii267 #28 2 years ago

    Who cares? They are both going to make a metric-fuckton of money.

    Win-Win.

  • Incarta #29 2 years ago

    Eurogamer sent an email to my EG inbox earlier today with the title "Halo Reach: Out Now!"

    I'd never have guessed!

    I'm some-what insulted actually. Are they implying that I'm stupid enough to have missed their daily articles on the bloody thing? Or the massive banner-ad around this very window I'm typing in with the words "OUT NOW" across it?

    It's overkill. And it's unwanted. Maybe I should send them an email reminding them they have a link to their email on their front page? If they think i'm this dumb, maybe I should treat them the same?

    ...having said all that, I likely will be going out to get the game this weekend... ahem.

  • Bluetooth #30 2 years ago

    Videogame Analyst seems to be one of the easiest jobs ever. Read the gaming news, bitch about comments made in interviews and predict the future. Get it wrong, still get paid.

  • darkmorgado #31 2 years ago

    I got Reach this evening... the husband brought it back from tesco.

    But it can wait till I've finished watched Holby City.

    I'm such a soap whore.

    EDIT: Why the negs? Because I watch Holby City, or because I have a husband?

    /confused
    Edited by darkmorgado at 15/09/10 @ 00:50

  • ProGrasTiNation #32 2 years ago

    I was going to write something that would try open eyes,then i realized this is a pointless debate about 2 games that are basicly owned by M$ so M$ will give reach & B.Os the same amount of PR.then leave it to the sheep to shape the sales!.END OF STORY

    M$ own both since they pay activision for exclusive everything,,every vid you see with Cod is xbox version..xbox press events hell even 402 never played ps3(i had him on my list)..Open your eyes & you will see M$s dirty paws all over the COD franchise

    Edited to explain to a blind person
    Edited by ProGrasTiNation at 16/09/10 @ 05:00

  • darkmorgado #33 2 years ago

    this is a pointless debate about 2 games that are basicly owned by M$

    Not wanting to destroy your point or anything, but since when is COD, a franchise that spans every platform and multiple generations, owned by MS?

    EDIT: Correcting a typo
    Edited by darkmorgado at 15/09/10 @ 00:10

  • TheBrow #34 2 years ago

    "Actually his ratio of right-wrong errs slightly towards being right more often, or at least partially right."

    He's the Smooth Jimmy Apollo of video game predictions!

  • darkmorgado #35 2 years ago

    lol @ thebrow

  • orangpelupa #36 2 years ago

    i was considering to buy Black Ops, but no.... Treyarch decide to delete the dedicated server feature. and make it exclusive to "i-dont-remember-the-company-name" dedicated server......

    one lost sale of BO.

    as for Halo Reach, will get it when it released on PC.
    Dont blame me, blame my RRoD xbox.
    still saving money to get the new 4GB Xbox 360 S. That thing is still damn expensive, ugh....

  • Mr_Brown #37 2 years ago

    It was just a comment they where pretty happy with Reach and felt confident about it, as they should. I won't be buying Black Ops.

  • Xboxfanuk #38 2 years ago

    Call of Duty is a one trick pony, whereas Halo is so much more. Halo is the better value by far.

  • schnide #39 2 years ago

    Eurogamer - 1